Deep dive · PNK: AYASF
Aya Gold & Silver Inc stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Aya Gold & Silver Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — AYASF trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart here
Chart pattern
Above both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $18.68 · +3.5%
200-day $15.50 · +24.7%
200-day $15.50 · +24.7%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 on watch
5 checks run, 4 clear
beta 2.54 · vol 96% ann.
worst drawdown -42%
worst drawdown -42%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does151 chars
Aya Gold & Silver Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of precious metals projects in Morocco.
PNK · USDSilver Mining
$19.33+0.68 · +3.65%CLOSED · vol 475.2K
52-week range↑ 180% off low · ↓ 12.1% off high
$6.91now $19.33$22.00
Tape 2026-07-02
01
Survival & solvency
and 4 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 8/9CLEAR
Piotroski F-score 8 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetSep 18, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills1.94×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.27
Net cashcash on hand in excess of every borrowing$22.78M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
86th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE A
90 / 100
0 critical · 1 watch · 4 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 8.83Altman-Z in the Safe · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationWATCHM 3.07M-score elevated · revenue more than doubled in the year · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.20long-term debt 0.20× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCLEARF 8/9Piotroski F-score 8 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsCLEAR0 flagsno filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 4 clear and 1 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 18, 2026EXCELLENT · 85/100
Business quality
23% net margin, 11% return on equity, +417% revenue growth, and capital earning 11% against a 15% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
85 / 100EXCELLENT
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 18, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
22.5%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
41.2%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
28.1%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
11.0%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-4.4pp
Earns 11% on invested capital that costs about 15%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
11.9%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-0.1%
3 months+22.9%
6 months+36.5%
Year to date+39.1%
1 year+118.8%
Revenue growth (YoY)FAST
+416.7%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+137.7%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 22%
78 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earnings
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — no measured print on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 18, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,473,236
21d49%0.0%691,862
63d51%+0.2%218,831
slope -0.01 over 40 bars
Long legged doji
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%0.0%171,393
21d49%0.0%80,724
63d49%-0.3%25,610
indecision, long shadows
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,212,095
21d51%+0.1%570,206
63d52%+0.4%180,573
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%971,828
21d52%+0.2%456,413
63d54%+0.5%144,062
three peaks ≈ equal
Inverse head and shoulders · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%491,675
21d50%0.0%231,291
63d51%+0.1%73,497
low below two ≈-equal shoulders — bullish reversal
Ascending triangle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%643,427
21d51%+0.2%302,356
63d53%+0.5%95,587
flat resistance, rising support
Cup and handle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.3%694,881
21d47%-0.5%326,059
63d47%-1.1%104,116
U-base + small handle pullback
Macd bullish cross · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.1%152,221
21d47%-0.2%71,780
63d48%-0.1%22,643
MACD crossed above signal
03
Price & timing
Price $19.33, RSI 53.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Above 50 & 2003 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $18.68 · 200-day $15.50. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-06-28 → 2026-07-02
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 3.65% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
53
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±7.6%
$1.47
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.01
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position61% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$19.17
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$17.57
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
2026-09-25 · in 7 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.21× segment rate · n=10,688
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 96% of cases (n=10,688).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
0.7σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$16 – $202 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $18.88, Pivot low at $16.76.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
0 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-2.90pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Net cash per shareCASH BACKING
$0.16
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported60.4×
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit13.7×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets6.7×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay27.1×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value-0.15%
5 of the 5 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timing
Data unavailableThe technical factors this engine reads are more than four days old, so any level it composed would be anchored to a tape that has moved. They return with the next nightly factor run.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +2
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 45%.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+2BALANCED · 30d
1 bull / 0 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
+2
strong Piotroski F-score (8/9)
Signal
1 bull / 0 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +2 over 30d, a balanced reading. 1 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
44.6%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
3.5%
The share held by the people running the company.
Free float97% OF SHARES
138.73M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)58th PCTILE
$4.98M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved on Sep 19, 2026NONE
flat
We don't have a fresh enough quote for AYASF to measure its move since the last close.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
050 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 2.54, 96% annual volatility, a -42% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−17.4%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−29.2%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.2×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-41.8%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
2.54
Moves about 2.5× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
96%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure38
Buying pressure0
Overheat3
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
1.8%tail cap binds
max defensible size 1.8% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
16.6%1.9× its cohort · mid-volume names
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this mid-volume names segment: 8.7%. This name reads 1.9× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 11.0% · tail cap 1.8% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 1.8% is the number (n=105,487). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 10.4% against a 10.8% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
HighCash runwayAbout 128.5 quarters of cash at current burn ($136M cash against $4M a year of burn) - names in this bucket: 16.3% catastrophe rate within a year.Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -42%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 96% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You're already heavy in this market
A 2.54 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 1.8% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record0 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
7 logged
7 calls logged on this name, 0 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on AYASFTHIS NAME
7
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 0.
0610-K disclosed linksSILVER MINING
The wider context
5 mapped peers.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+4.9% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
AGPeer$19.84+1.80%
AYAPeer$28.46-1.25%
EXKPeer$10.21+0.39%
SVMPeer$11.94-1.73%
HSLVPeer$5.50+1.48%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 7 DAYS
Consumer Sentiment
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 16, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
A slowing economy uses less steel, copper and chemicals.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later +1.0% · Two weeks later +1.8% · Rose on 76 of 158 report days
Across the last 158 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, AYASF moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 1.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
More building and manufacturing means more demand for raw materials.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later +1.8% · Rose on 18 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, AYASF moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 1.8% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Producer prices (PPI)Usually helps when producer prices run hotter than expected
Miners and chemical makers sell raw materials whose prices rise with inflation.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +1.7% · A week later +2.0% · Two weeks later +2.3% · Rose on 25 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Producer prices (PPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, AYASF moved +1.7% on average on the day and was 2.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) is due in 11 days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually helps when inflation runs hotter than expectedMiners and chemical makers sell raw materials whose prices rise with inflation.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.9% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +3.6% · Rose on 19 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, AYASF moved +0.9% on average on the day and was 3.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Core inflation (core CPI)Usually helps when inflation runs hotter than expected
Miners and chemical makers sell raw materials whose prices rise with inflation.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +1.6% · A week later +2.3% · Two weeks later +2.1% · Rose on 24 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 Core inflation (core CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, AYASF moved +1.6% on average on the day and was 2.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
A hawkish Fed lifts the dollar, which makes dollar-priced metals dearer for foreign buyers.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +3.1% · Rose on 20 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, AYASF moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 3.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
Lumber, cement and gravel.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later +1.8% · Two weeks later +1.3% · Rose on 21 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, AYASF moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 1.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Inflation (CPI)Usually helps when inflation runs hotter than expected
Miners and chemical makers sell raw materials whose prices rise with inflation.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +1.6% · A week later +2.3% · Two weeks later +2.1% · Rose on 24 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 Inflation (CPI) reports since Jun 12, 2023, AYASF moved +1.6% on average on the day and was 2.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.3% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections
Data unavailableNo competitor, partner, supplier or customer relationship is on file for this name yet.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.