Everything behind the call on ATS Corporation. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — ATS trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $21.62 · -11.7% 200-day $27.86 · -31.4%
Earnings
In 39 days
4 Nov 2026
beat 3–4 of the last 8 cohort P(beat) 53% · n=38,466
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 on watch
5 checks run, 4 clear
beta 1.52 · vol 25% ann. worst drawdown -48%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does182 chars
ATS Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the planning, designing, building, commissioning, and servicing of automated manufacturing and assembly systems worldwide.
Altman-Z of 1.9 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 4 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
1.89GREY ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJun 23, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)THIN
2.5σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
Structural snapshot · Sep 26, 2026
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.83%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Profitability qualityCLEARF 7/9Piotroski F-score 7 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsCLEAR0 flagsno filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 4 clear and 1 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 26, 2026FAIR · 54/100
Business quality
2% net margin, 4% return on equity, +17% revenue growth, and capital earning 5% against a 10% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
54 / 100FAIR
Profitability · net margin 2%
Growth · revenue +17% YoY
Balance strength · debt/equity 0.81
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 26, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
2.4%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
28.6%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
7.5%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
4.0%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadDESTROYS VALUE
-4.5pp
Earns 5% on invested capital that costs about 10%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
-5.6%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month
-1.6%
3 months
-30.7%
6 months
-32.0%
Year to date
-31.5%
1 year
-27.3%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+17.4%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
-26.8%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 13%
13 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
cohort n=38,466 · this name's own n=8 · since 2000
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 3–4 OF THE LAST 8
3 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
n=8 measured prints
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — needs ≥8 measured prints · 2 on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus bias0.86× COHORT
Persistent
misses more often than it beats, by small margins
As of · Aug 6, 2026
Next reportIN 39 DAYS
4 Nov 2026
Reports amc · consensus EPS $0.25 · revenue 681.4 M
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
low below two ≈-equal shoulders — bullish reversal
Ascending triangle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%646,584
21d51%+0.1%303,544
63d53%+0.5%96,103
flat resistance, rising support
Near support · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%536,115
21d53%+0.2%251,312
63d54%+0.4%78,900
testing recent support
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%764,373
21d45%0.0%357,385
63d47%0.0%112,620
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
03
Price & timing
Price $19.10, RSI 40.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $21.62 · 200-day $27.86. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 1.11% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Market cap$1.85B
Day range$18.86 – $19.13
Above 52-week low+4%
Realized volatility25% ann.
Worst drawdown-47.7%
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
40
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±2.4%
$0.46
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.18
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position40% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$19.20
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$18.73
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
4 Nov 2026 · in 39 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 11 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 3 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Low0.77× segment rate · n=11,137
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 61% of cases (n=11,137).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-0.4σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$18 – $193 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $18.92, Pivot low at $18.64, Pivot low at $18.41.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
2 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-3.40pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-11.73
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported56.2×84th of its 5yr range
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth3.11
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit0.6×5yr median 1.5×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets1.0×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay8.3×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off8.1×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value20.08%
2 of the 7 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$19.00In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetRound + vwap 50
$20.89$21–$21
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
StopTucked under the entry zone
$18.06risk $0.94/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
2.01:1
Reward against risk on the composer's own levels.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+13.2%
short-term trend line · $21.62
To the 200-day
+45.9%
primary trend line · $27.86
To the composer's target
+9.4%
Round + vwap 50 · set Sep 25, 2026 · $20.89
To the composer's stop
-5.4%
Tucked under the entry zone · set Sep 25, 2026 · $18.06
To the 52-week high
+87.5%
highest print of the past year · $35.82
To the 52-week low
-3.6%
lowest print of the past year · $18.41
A typical day (ATR)
$18.64 – $19.56
±$0.46 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
The levels line up.
Entry $19.00 · stop $18.06 · target $20.89, a 2.01:1 ratio. The composer flagged: elevated distress, fair-value reference.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL 0
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 90%.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
0BALANCED · 30d
Earnings -2
Quality / value +2
1 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-2
latest EPS missed by 15%
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
+2
strong Piotroski F-score (7/9)
Signal
1 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to 0 over 30d, a balanced reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
89.6%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.2%
The share held by the people running the company.
Free float75% OF SHARES
73.09M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)57th PCTILE
$4.55M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
+1.11%
ATS rose +1.11% since the last close — no identified catalyst in our coverage.
Matched · Sep 25, 2026
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
050 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.52, 25% annual volatility, a -48% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−12.5%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−30.6%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementHEAVY TAIL
1.6×
A normal-curve estimate understates this name's worst days by about 1.6×, so volatility alone is the wrong risk measure for it.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-47.7%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
1.52
Moves about 1.5× the market over the past year.
3-year beta 1.40
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
25%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure44
Buying pressure5
Overheat4
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
0-100 · high = active · lit = the engine's own phase, cohort-banded
What votes againstNightly
MedEarningslatest EPS missed by 15%4 quarters · -2
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.9%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.9% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
15.3%1.8× its cohort · mid-volume names
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this mid-volume names segment: 8.7%. This name reads 1.8× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 38.6% · tail cap 2.9% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.9% is the number (n=70,004). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 2.9% against a 9.6% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
MedPost-earnings driftMove already priced: after jumps this large, measured drift edge is zero.Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -48%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 25% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You're already heavy in this market
A 1.52 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 39 days.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.9% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record0 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
16 logged
16 calls logged on this name, 0 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
0 resolved · 16 open
Calls on ATSTHIS NAME
16
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 0.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-49.9% per +1ppSECTOR
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (tailwind) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
6268.TPeer$4,792.00+0.69%
6135.TPeer$15,750.00+1.88%
GEVPeer$957.63+0.27%
SMEGFPeer$165.58+0.60%
SMERYPeer$32.68+0.15%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Historical retrospective. Context, not a forecast.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 3 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 24, 2026
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Industrial companies sell into exactly this activity.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later +0.8% · Two weeks later -0.3% · Rose on 24 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, ATS moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 0.3% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Industrial companies sell into exactly this activity.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later -1.8% · Two weeks later -2.1% · Rose on 8 of 13 report days
Across the last 13 GDP (advance estimate) reports since Jul 28, 2023, ATS moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 2.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Rising layoffs signal factories and builders are slowing.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -0.4% · A week later -0.8% · Two weeks later -1.2% · Rose on 83 of 170 report days
Across the last 170 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, ATS moved -0.4% on average on the day and was 1.2% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Factories pay more for materials before they can raise their own prices, and higher rates slow orders.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later -1.2% · Two weeks later -2.0% · Rose on 14 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Jun 28, 2023, ATS moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 2.0% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Costlier financing slows factory and equipment orders.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -0.8% · A week later -2.1% · Two weeks later -1.3% · Rose on 14 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, ATS moved -0.8% on average on the day and was 1.3% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
Building products and equipment makers.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -0.3% · A week later -0.6% · Two weeks later -2.6% · Rose on 19 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, ATS moved -0.3% on average on the day and was 2.6% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expected
Strong hiring means factories and builders are busy.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later -0.3% · Two weeks later -0.1% · Rose on 21 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, ATS moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 0.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
PCE inflation is due in 3 days.
PCE inflationUsually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Factories pay more for materials before they can raise their own prices, and higher rates slow orders.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later -1.2% · Two weeks later -2.0% · Rose on 14 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 PCE inflation reports since Jun 28, 2023, ATS moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 2.0% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections1 link · none confirmed
Direct connections · 1 edge
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
LLY · Customercustomer+0.13%Rumored · manual
0 of 1 edge is named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.