Qtick
/
Sign in
Markets / APO
APO
NYQbullTYPEunconfirmed

Apollo Global Management, Inc. ·

$138.66
▲+6.65 (+5.03%)
as-of not on file
Mkt cap$79.94B
P/E · fwd46.0 · 12.1
Div yield1.62%
Beta 1y1.15
Volume1.14M0.28× avg
52-wk range -9.5%100153
The five reads
At a glance the decision-relevant reads, first
GLOBAL TAPE
Overseas lean-0.26%
FrankfurtN7I-0.77%⏱
ZurichAPO0.00%⏱
StockholmAPOUSD0.00%⏱
Track record · free & ungated
We grade our price-band calls in public

Each forward price band is logged the day it's set and scored when it resolves — misses included. 5 bands have resolved so far — not yet enough for a hit-rate that would mean anything, so none is shown. This builds in the open, not behind the paywall.

14
bands logged
5
resolved so far
Building
status
The calibration ledger stays free, always — a track record can't sit behind a paywall.

Price action

Price & quote

Live quote refreshed every 15 minutes against the full daily snapshot.

The readHolding bidfact

Where the price sits inside today's range and its 52-week range, plus how it's performed over time. This is the raw quote — the same number everywhere, just faster.

◆ Golden cross forming◇ Ascending channel50- and 200-day averages are converging — watch for a regime flip.
96.2108.4120.6132.9145.1Ascending channelDeath crossGolden crossDeath crossS · 129S · 125S · 124R · 134R · 135R · 139
Drag or arrow-key the chart for daily OHLCV · 126 sessions through Aug 10, 2026 · prev close $132.02 (dashed)
Open
$134.00
Prev close
$132.02
Volume
1.14M
avg 4.07M
Rel. volume
0.28×
below normal
Market cap
$79.94B
Shares out
576.52M
float 450.81M
Day range
$127.53$138.66
52-week range
$99.56$153.29
-9.5% from high+39.3% above low

The QTick signal

QTick proprietary signal

A transparent point tally — bull evidence minus bear evidence — read over ~30 days. Faster factors time the swing; slower ones (quality, 13F, forensics) weigh in as longer-horizon context. A model-based prior, not advice.

~30-day swing read · graded vs S&Puncalibrated prior · track record buildingstrength is the tally magnitude, not a probability
Price-factor lean cohort-relative · momentum + low-vol
Price-factor lean — not shown at this market cap (these factors carry no validated edge above small-cap).
Where this is validated: survivorship-free factor study (micro/small caps only), |t|>3.2. Cohort-relative ranking, not a price forecast or buy/sell advice. Calibration tracked live.
+3
net · leaning
2 bull / 1 bear factors
Factor breakdown 8 factors · signed points sum to net +3
Analyst moves90d—
Earnings4 quarters+3 pts
latest EPS beat by 3%
Insider flow120d-1 pts
net insider selling ($7,298,222 across 4 sell(s)) in 120d
Estimate revisionsWeeks—
Sentiment1–30d+1 pts
7d sentiment elevated (90/100)
Longer-horizon context weighs the read · not a 30-day timing call
Institutional (13F)Latest 13F—
Quality / valueTTM—
Filing forensicsLatest FY—
Risk flagsDaily—
Net tally
+3
4 bull − 1 bear
Factors agreeing
2↑ 1↓
of 9 tracked
Read strength
leaning
30d horizon
Strongest factor
Earnings
+3 pts
Model
QTick Engine
APO track record
Building
5 of 14 resolved
Forensic flags filing red flags · backtested edge where shown
Revenue-timing languagerevenue-recognition timing language worth watching
Cannot-estimate contingencyan unquantified legal/regulatory contingency the company says it cannot estimate
Territory — competitor / supplier graph
BLKPeer-0.4%
BXCompetitor+3.0%
BNPeer+0.5%
KKRCompetitor+4.5%
BAMPeer+3.3%

Where the reads agree

Cross-category read

A decorrelated view across the categories already scored elsewhere on this page — where they agree, where they conflict, and how lopsided the split is. Not a new signal, a different angle on ones that already exist.

Category reads n=4 categories voting
Eventleans up
Positioningleans down
Trendleans down
Riskleans up n=4
2 lean up, 2 lean down — modal read: bull.
Where they conflict
Event leans up while Positioning leans down.
Event leans up while Trend leans down.
Risk leans up while Positioning leans down.
2 of 4 weighted reads lean the other way — minority weight share 46%.
↳ In detail
A pattern, not a validated signal
This regroups categories the page already scores elsewhere into one cross-category view — it does not add a new tally. Descriptive only — a decorrelated read of where the evidence agrees and conflicts, not a forecast and not advice. Patterns are condition lists, not outcome predictions, and are not yet validated to the proof bar.
+3 net
leaning
2 bull / 1 bear factors

Red-Flag X-Ray

Accounting quality · red-flag scan

One integrity score (0–100) from a set of accounting checks that look for red flags. Higher is safer — and we show the checks it passed, not just the ones it failed.

50
/ 100
Integrity score
D
1 critical · 2 watch · 1 clear of 4 scored tests
1 clear2 watch1 critical1 n/a
Test battery
✕–✓!!
5 forensic tests · 1 passed clean · 2 flagged for watch
✕Critical
Bankruptcy distressZ 0.06
Altman-Z in the distress zone
–n/a
Earnings manipulationn/a
Beneish-M not applicable to this sector
✓Clear
LeverageD/E 0.31
debt-to-equity 0.31×
!Watch
Profitability qualityF 4/9
Piotroski F-score 4 of 9
!Watch
Filing forensics2 flag(s)
2 filing red flag(s) on the latest 10-K
How we test · 7 forensic testsA clear result ships as openly as a flag — and the tests that don't fire are published in full. No survivorship bias.
Share dilution / SBC creepFires when shares outstanding rise materially or stock-based comp outpaces buybacks.
Distress (Altman-Z, negative equity)Fires on balance-sheet fragility. For banks we substitute regulatory capital (CET1).
Margin trajectoryFires on multi-quarter gross / operating margin erosion.
Going-concern languageNLP scan of filings for material-doubt or going-concern wording.
Filing timelinessFires on late / NT (non-timely) filings and restatements.
Insider selling into strengthFires on discretionary insider sells during price strength; 10b5-1 plans down-weighted.
Analyst-downgrade momentumFires on clusters of net downgrades and target cuts.

Odds & pullback risk

Setup & odds

Which way the next move is more likely to go — and how overstretched the price looks right now.

The readSkews upsidewhere it sitsuncalibrated prior · not a forecast

How the likely upside compares with the downside, and how stretched the price is — odds, not timing.

Upside vs downside · 12m
Upside 53.7%46.1% Downside
Skew favours upside · base rate 50/50
Historically, names tripping 0 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 46% of cases (n=20,692) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast. · n=20,692
Expected move · 1wk±—
Upside target$133.74 -3.6% · level, not a call
Invalidation / stop$128.64 -7.2% · level, not a call
Reward : risk-0.5 : 1
BullClose above $134 opens continuation.
BaseChop between stop and target into the next catalyst.
BearA break of $129 invalidates the setup.
Pullback risk · experimental
LowElevatedHigh
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 78% of cases (n=5,188).
1.23×the segment norm — 78% saw a ≥10% pullback within 63dn=5,188 · observational
Resolved up vs down · 63d64% up · 36% down same historical group as the pullback read · 5,188 cases · flat outcomes count on neither side — a historical rate, not a call
Conditioned onneutral · high vol · neg momentum the past setups matched against this one
  • 1.23× the large unconditional rate
  • tape state: neutral
  • price 1.8σ from its 20-day mean
↳ In detail
How to read the odds
This is a historical rate, and an experimental one: across 25 years, stocks in the same state — same segment, same price phase, same volatility, same momentum — pulled back this often. The record is built from today's list of companies, so names that delisted along the way are missing and each stock's current segment is projected backward; the rates lean toward survivors until that rebuild lands. Compare the multiple against the segment rather than the bare percentage — recent years run higher than the full 25-year record. None of it predicts timing.
The structure under the price
Support band$120.14 – $130.94 -5.6% from spot · level, not a call
s1$128.64 basis
sma 200$126.44 basis
pivot low$122.44 basis
~68%of bands like this held 21 days after a touch — about the same as any comparable support level. Structure, not a prediction.n=40,800 · observational
Bottom confirmation2 of 6 signs in find-bottom score 17/100 — pinned to 0 until the checklist clears
Capitulation flush, then quietnot yet
Selling volume dried upnot yet
A higher low printedin
Back above the 20-day linenot yet
Momentum diverging upnot yet
Heaviest volume on an up dayin
85%of confirmed bottoming reads still saw a ≥10% drawdown inside the next quarter (25-year study) — confirmation marks a turn forming, not safety.n=1,203 · observational

Trend & technical structure

Trend & technicals

The price chart's vital signs, in plain English. Expand any row for what it actually means for you.

The readDowntrendwhere it sitsmoving-average posture · fact

Moving averages describe the direction; RSI and the bands describe how stretched the move is. Neither predicts the next one.

Average prices (the trend)
Price vs 200-day+9.7%
Momentum, bands & levels
↳ In detail
The simple version
When price sits aboveits averages with momentum rising, the trend is healthy. When RSI is near the extremes or the price looks "stretched," the move is overdone and often takes a breather. Think of these as a weather report — conditions, not instructions.
Pattern outcomes · derived analysis

Do these patterns even work?

Derived · what patterns actually did

Every charting site detects the pattern. We publish what happened next — the forward win-rate and sample size at each horizon, including the famous patterns that historically meant nothing.

The readForward win-rates, with sample sizewhere it sits

How often each chart pattern was actually followed by a gain, and how many past cases that's based on — including famous ones that didn't work.

Each bar is the win-rate — how often the price was higher that many days after the pattern appeared. The line marks 50%, a coin flip: green beats it, red is worse than chance. Every bar is a platform-wide cohort base rateacross every stock that has shown this pattern (cohort record, not this ticker's own history alone).
Pattern10-day21-day63-day
SidewaysBelow a coin flip
forward win-rate47.5%n=1,436,439
forward win-rate49.0%n=674,534
forward win-rate50.8%n=214,238
slope -0.04 over 40 bars
MarubozuBelow a coin flip
forward win-rate43.0%n=151,007
forward win-rate51.4%n=154,597
forward win-rate44.8%n=70,621
forward win-rate51.5%n=72,449
forward win-rate47.3%n=22,231
forward win-rate51.3%n=22,782
full-body, no shadows
Bullish engulfingBelow a coin flip
forward win-rate46.6%n=135,073
forward win-rate47.5%n=63,489
forward win-rate48.3%n=20,356
green body engulfs prior red
Piercing lineBelow a coin flip
forward win-rate47.4%n=135,881
forward win-rate48.2%n=63,976
forward win-rate48.8%n=20,546
closes above prior midpoint
Morning starBelow a coin flip
forward win-rate48.0%n=131,302
forward win-rate48.7%n=61,744
forward win-rate48.7%n=19,816
3-bar bottom reversal
Triple bottomBarely beats chance
forward win-rate48.8%n=935,884
forward win-rate50.1%n=438,722
forward win-rate52.1%n=139,063
three troughs ≈ equal
RectangleBelow a coin flip
forward win-rate45.8%n=214,069
forward win-rate47.9%n=100,363
forward win-rate50.2%n=31,629
horizontal range
Cup and handleBelow a coin flip
forward win-rate46.0%n=676,679
forward win-rate46.5%n=317,821
forward win-rate46.9%n=101,501
U-base + small handle pullback
Snapshot as of 2026-08-11
↳ In detail
Why we show you the losers
Famous reversal signals like a bullish engulfing have historically closed higher less than half the time at short horizons — below a coin flip. We publish the win-rate and the sample size on every cohort, so a 42-case base rate never masquerades as an 8,500-case one. Objective base rates, not forecasts.

Momentum & performance

Momentum / performance

Trailing returns and relative strength versus the benchmark.

The readLaggardwhere it sitsRS percentile vs market

How the stock has returned, and whether it's beating the market. A strong run shows recent leadership — leadership reverses without warning.

Trailing returns
1-month+11.1%
3-month+1.2%
6-month-1.4%
Year-to-date-10.0%
1-year-7.0%
12-1 momentum-13.4%
Relative strength vs S&P 500
46.4
RS-rank
percentile vs market
laggingleading
Relative strength line (β-adj)-5.54
↳ In detail
What relative strength tells you
A rank of 46.4 means APO has outpaced 46.4% of the market over the past year. That is what it has done, not a promise about what comes next — leadership can reverse without warning.

Risk profile

Risk

Volatility and sensitivity, regressed against SPY from adjusted bars — then the landmine check: what could actually go wrong here.

The readLow drawdown riskwhere it sitsvs the Financial Services segment base rate · observational

Beta is how much it moves with the market; volatility and the worst drop show how rough the ride has been. Historical context, not a position-size rule.

1.6%6-month large-drawdown risk vs 3.0% for its segment
Low drawdown riskNames like this hit a large drawdown within 6 months at 0.5× the rate of the Financial Services segment — observational, never a sell.
Beta · 1-year
1.15
more sensitive than market
Beta · 3-year
1.48
Realized vol · 30d
34.1%
annualized
Max drawdown · 1y
-34.0%
The drawdown read · 6-month, segment-graded
Where it sits0.5×
LowHigh
vs the Financial Services segment base rate · observational
1.6%6-month large-drawdown risk, vs 3.0% for its segment
Max drawdown, trailing year-0.34 driver
Distance from 52-week high-0.13 driver
Parkinson range volatility0.34 driver
Log price (level)4.88 driver
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this Financial Services segment: 3.0%. This name reads 0.5× that base rate.
Tape state & tail · nightly, adjusted bars
Neutral tape0/100
SettledKnifing
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
−8.4%a 1-in-200 day for this name — 1.4× what a normal curve expects
Cannot-estimate contingencyflagged
↳ In detail
Reading risk
A beta of 1.15 means that, historically, a 1% move in the S&P has come with a ~1.15% move here. Realized vol ran 34% and the largest drawdown observed in the trailing year was 34% — both are what happened, not a bound on what can. The drawdown band above is observational — a risk sort against names of the same segment, blind to balance-sheet failures that never showed in the price.

Failure modes

Coverage
Data not available — failure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far (this name routes as unknown)
Macro sensitivity · derived analysis

How rates push this name

Derived · rates & regime

The 10-year yield is public. Its measured pull on this specific stock — and how it trades around the macro calendar — is the derived layer.

The readRises with rateswhere it sitshow it moved when rates moved · extremes trimmed

How much this stock actually moves when interest rates move, and how it behaves around big economic releases.

Sensitivity to 10Y yield
Per +1% in the 10Y yield+7.1%
−120+12
Rates are a Rises with rates for this name
Observations504 rolling window
Fit · r²n/a
Measured across 504 daily moves against the 10-year Treasury yield (FRED DGS10). Where the company-level link is weak or the sample is short, we fall back to the sector average rather than print a number we don't trust.
Behaviour around the macro calendar
CPI · vs a typical dayn=370.9×
FOMC · vs a typical dayn=380.7×
NFP · vs a typical dayn=390.9×
PCE · vs a typical dayn=380.7×
Latest print · 10-Year Treasury Yield (2026-08-07) read as a headwind for this name. 10-Year Treasury Yield came in cooler than trend, based on how its sector typically reacts -> a headwind for this name.
× = how much more this stock moves on each release day vs a normal day. Amber = outsized (≥1.4×). Context, not a directional call.
Volatility regime
The volatility engine runs on market-wide risk channels, not on individual names, so there is no 1-year volatility percentile for this symbol. The realized-volatility and drawdown reads in the risk section are the per-name measures.

Valuation

Valuation

Is the stock cheap or expensive? Each multiple is graded and explained in plain English.

The readLeans expensivewhere it sitsagainst its own 5-year range where we have it · standard bands otherwise

Price against earnings, sales, book value and cash flow. We mark the measures that don't apply rather than fake them.

What you pay for earnings
P/E (trailing)Price ÷ last 12 months of profit; graded vs own 5y history when covered46.0×Rich
Forward P/EPrice ÷ next year's expected profit12.1×Cheap
PEG ratioValuation set against expected growth — lower can look cheaper, but one cutoff is not a verdict4.08Rich
Earnings yieldProfit as a % of price, like a bond yield2.17%Rich
Earnings yield − risk-freeEarnings yield minus the government-bond yield at the same date-2.48%Spread
Dividend yieldAnnual indicated cash dividend as a % of price1.62%Income
What you pay for the business
Price / SalesPrice ÷ annual revenue; graded vs own 5y history when covered2.3×Fair
Price / BookPrice ÷ net assets on the books3.20×Fair
EV / EBITDAWhole-company value ÷ operating cash earningsn/an/a
EV / FCFWhole-company value ÷ positive free cash flown/an/a
Price / FCFPrice ÷ free cash flow generatedn/an/a
FCF yieldFree cash flow as a % of market valuen/an/a
P/E vs own 5yFive-year median 17.9×90th pctRich
P/S vs own 5yFive-year median 2.8×37th pctFair
EV/EBITDA and P/FCF need positive operating cash earnings to mean anything (and don't apply to banks, where leverage is the product) — so we mark them n/a rather than print a misleading number.
Peers today territory performance, for valuation context
BLKPeer-0.4%
BXCompetitor+3.0%
BNPeer+0.5%
KKRCompetitor+4.5%
BAMPeer+3.3%

Fundamentals & quality

Fundamentals / quality

How good is the underlying business? Scale, profitability and balance-sheet strength, graded.

The readPartial fundamentals readwhere it sitsreturn on capital vs its estimated cost of funding

Scale, profitability and balance sheet, with industrial return on capital compared directly with its estimated funding cost.

Scale & growth
Revenue · TTMTotal sales over the last 12 months$31.56BScale
EPS · TTMProfit earned per share—Profit
Net marginCents of profit kept per $1 of sales10.9%OK
Revenue growthSales vs a year ago+22.7%Strong
EPS growthProfit-per-share vs a year ago-24.4%Weak
Margin trajectoryAre profit margins widening or shrinking?n/an/a
Returns & balance sheet
ROEProfit generated on shareholders' equity15.0%OK
ROICAfter-tax operating profit earned on the capital the business usesn/an/a
WACCEstimated blended cost of debt and equityn/an/a
ROIC − WACCReturn on capital above or below its funding costn/an/a
Incremental ROIC · ~3yWhat the last three years of new investment has actually earnedn/an/a
Gross / Op marginProfitability before & after operating costs95% / 26%Strong
Free cash flowCash left after running & investingn/an/a
Cash self-fundingSelf-funding on trailing free cash flow, or months of cash left at the current burnn/an/a
Debt / EquityGross borrowings vs equity — negative book equity is not gradeablen/an/a
Current ratioCan it cover near-term bills? Over 1.5 is healthyn/an/a
Last filed 2026-08-11

Inventory ledger

The stockroom
Data not available.

Segments & geography

Where the revenue lives
Data not available.
Credit & safety · derived analysis

Distance from insolvency

Derived · distance from default

Not the debt total — how far this company's asset value could fall before its debts get hard to cover, and how that distance ranks against its peers.

The read—where it sitspercentile vs solvency universe

How far the company sits from real financial distress, plus how it ranks against peers — more than a debt total tells you.

n/a
σ to default
n/amodel-implied probability of default
Filing-forensics flags
1/4
SafeGreyDistress
Model-implied, not a credit rating.It estimates how far the company's assets would have to fall before it couldn't cover its debts, using a standard model (Merton). Higher is safer. (risk-free rate n/a, one-year horizon, asset volatility from —)
Structural snapshot as of 2026-08-11
Distance-to-default band
distress · 0cautionsafe8σ+
Debt-service capacity
Interest coveragen/a operating income / absolute interest expense
Long-term debt / assets2.9% as filed; distinct from Merton D/V
↳ In detail
How to read these two ratios
The credit engine uses the same stored thresholds shown here: coverage at or below 1× cannot cover interest, while 8× or more is its comfortable band; long-term debt at 10% of assets or less is its light band, while 60% or more is its heavy band. Missing XBRL tags stay n/a.
Altman solvency
Altman Z-Score0.1 Distress
↳ In detail
Why a percentile, not a number
The absolute Z-Score is shown whenever its filing inputs exist. The cross-sectional percentile is a separate field and stays n/a until a current universe rank is on file.
Forensic accounting
1Validated forensic-accounting flag fired. Individual flag details are not carried by this endpoint.
Dilution radar · derived analysis

Are your shares being diluted?

Derived · ownership erosion

Raw share count is everywhere. The consequence — how fast the count is growing and where that ranks against peers — is the read that matters.

The read—where it sitsdilution percentile vs peers

How fast the share count is changing versus peers, with stock compensation, issuance and repurchases shown separately when covered.

5-year share-count CAGR
The CAGR needs annual filings roughly five years apart that both carry a share count. This name's filing history on file does not span that window, so no rate is published — the buyback and stock-comp rows below are measured independently and still hold.
Most-dilutive percentile vs peers
LeastMedianMost
0percentile100
Peer percentile51th above median
Stock comp / revenue2.5% latest fiscal year
Stock comp / OCFoperating cash flown/a not covered
Gross buyback yield+1.05% TTM repurchases / market value
Net buyback yield+1.05% TTM repurchases minus issuance / market value
Diluted / basic share gap0.7% latest fiscal-year per-share overhang proxy
SBC trendfalling up to five fiscal years
Shares outstanding · indexed 5y
Indexing needs an unbroken run of annual share counts across the same five-year window the CAGR uses. Where a year is missing — or the reported counts switch share class mid-series — the chart is withheld rather than drawn across the gap.

Analyst & estimates

Analyst & estimates

Consensus, price targets, forward estimates, and the company's recent results versus consensus.

The read—where it sitswhere Wall Street sits · not QTick

Targets matter less than which way estimates are heading and how often the company beats them.

Consensus rating
Buy
21 analysts · score n/a/5
Strong buy 19%Buy 52%Hold 29%Sell 0%Strong sell 0%
12-month price target
low $126.00now $138.66high $173.00
Mean target$148.00 (+6.7%)
Forward estimates & revisions
Forward EPS consensus—
Revision breadth · 30d—
Revision momentumRaised 1.5% · 30d
Beat-rate · 8q—
The consensus EPS level, the share of analysts raising, and the realised beat-rate all come from the same estimate capture, which does not cover this name. The rating, target band and street moves above are from a separate source and are current.
EPS surprise history
No reported-vs-estimate pairs on file for this name
Recent rating changes
Street moves · last 90 days
↑target $172UBSfirm credibility 47/10005 Aug
↑target $146RBC Capitalfirm credibility 44/10005 Aug
↑target $157Barclaysfirm credibility 46/10005 Aug
↓target $164Morgan Stanleyfirm credibility 47/10021 Jul
Earnings bias · derived analysis

How this name behaves into the print

Earnings habit

The street's consensus-surprise habit — whether estimates run conservative or aggressive against what the company reports, not management's own guidance — the beat streak graded against names with the same profile, and what the tape does on good news.

The readSerial beaterwhere it sitsvalidated base rates · graded out-of-time

Whether the street sandbags this name, how often a beat streak like this persists (with its sample size), and what the tape does with good news.

65%of names with this beat profile beat againn=41,449 · observational
Consensus habit · trailing 8 quarters
Consensus-surprise habitnot management guidanceconsensus runs low for this name — it routinely clears the bar n=8
Trailing beat rate75% beat 5–6 of the last 8 · n=8
65%of names that beat 5–6 of the last 8 went on to beat again — 1.04× the segment average (cohort record since 2000, not this stock alone)n=41,449 · observational
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
What the tape does with it
17%of the time it beat the estimate but fell anywayn=24 · observational
17%of the time it missed the estimate but rose anywayn=24 · observational
Avg reaction on a miss+0.8% n=3
undetermined — needs ≥4 measured beats
Earnings-day move · typical±3.4% p90 ±9.0% · worst ±17.4% (2024-11-05) · n=24
Implied vs realized move1.23× options overpriced the event · n=1
↳ In detail
How to read the habit
This is a historical rate: among companies with the same recent beat record, that share beat again. It was checked on later periods than the ones it learned from, and against the plain long-run average. It describes the group, not this specific report.

Ownership & positioning

Ownership

Who holds it, how options lean, and the most recent insider, congressional and 13F transactions.

The read—where it sitspositioning band · not a vote

Who owns it and what insiders and big funds are doing. Steady buying reads positive; heavy selling reads cautious.

Holders
Institutional71.4%
Insider27.2%
Institutional flow—
Fund concentration—
Activist stakelatest Schedule 13D block on fileROWAN MARC J (13D/A, 2024-12-11)
Insider & short
Insider 90d net—
10b5-1 vs discretionaryscheduledMostly programmatic
Short interest · %float5.5%
Short interest · 30d Δ—
Options positioning
Put/call · OI—
Put/call · volume—
Implied movenext exp.±2.6%
IV skew (25Δ)+10.7% put-skewed
↳ In detail
Reading the positioning
Institutional flow data unavailable. The options market shows put-skewed IV — leaning defensive.
Recent transactions Form 4 + congressional
FilerSourceActionValueDate
Kelly MartinChief Financial OfficerInsiderSell010 Jul
Toomey PatrickDirectorInsiderSell006 Jul
JOYNER PAMELA JDirectorInsiderSell006 Jul
Healey Kerry MurphyDirectorInsiderSell006 Jul
O'Neill MitraDirectorInsiderSell006 Jul
13F filers · last quarter

Institutional flow

Coverage
Data not available.
Gamma map · derived analysis

Where dealer hedging concentrates

Derived · dealer hedging · marquee

Open interest is free everywhere. What it does — whether dealer hedging dampens or amplifies a 1% move, and the strikes where that hedging concentrates — is the derived read.

The readHedging may steady moveswhere it sitswhere dealer hedging sits

Whether dealer hedging leans toward steadying the price or sharpening the next move, and the strikes where that hedging is concentrated.

Support / resistance rails
call wall · resistance$128
spot$129.74
put wall · support$119
Dealer regime
Long gamma — hedging can steady moves
Net dealer gamma+$559,202 per 1% move
ATM implied vol0.5%
Expected move · 1d±3.4%
Expected move · 1w±7.6%
OTM IV skew (25Δ)+10.7% put-skewed
↳ In detail
Reading the gamma map
Dealers are long gamma, so they lean against moves — price gets pinned between support at $119.00 and resistance at $128.00 into expiry. Net gamma of +$559,202 is the dollar hedging effect per 1% move — the consequence a raw chain never tells you.
From QTickOur track recordEvery call we've resolved, misses included →

Peers & supply chain

Territory · peers & supply chain

The names in this stock's orbit — how each is trading today, and how they wire together as suppliers, customers and competitors.

The readOutpacing groupfact

How nearby companies are trading. Moving with them is a sector story; breaking away is specific to this stock.

TickerRelationshipTodayRelative move
APOThis stock+5.03%
BLKPeer-0.44%
BXCompetitor+2.96%
BNPeer+0.45%
KKRCompetitor+4.51%
BAMPeer+3.27%
↳ In detail
Outpacing its peers
APO is +2.9% ahead of the peer average (+2.15%). Divergence from the group is where the stock-specific signal lives.
Supply map how the territory wires together
APO+5.03%the stock
competitorsupplier

Customer momentum

The customer chain
Data not available.

News & market context

The Story · news & social

Coverage published around the move, with the crowd's mood shown next to each.

The readCrowd mixedfactread as contrarian context

What moved the stock, plus how bullish the crowd is — which tends to be loudest right at the turning points.

Latest headlines 0▲ 0▼ of 48
News
APO rose +3.59% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “Why Did Nvidia Stock Fall on Monday Despite a $500 Billion Wall Street AI Deal?” (BeInCrypto).
Why it moved+3.59%·2026-08-11·source
Neutral
Nvidia (NVDA) Is Going Beyond GPUs in the $500 Billion AI Boom, Wells Fargo Says
NEWSInsider Monkey·50 min ago
Neutral
ARK Invest buys Nvidia, Broadcom stock dips, sells Deere
NEWSQuartz·1h ago
Neutral
Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) Stock Forecasts - Yahoo Finance
NEWSYahoo Finance·2h ago
Neutral
Nvidia Wants to Make Its Chips Wall Street's Newest Asset Class
NEWSGuruFocus.com·2h ago
Headline tone
80/100 · 7-day
flat
Polarity of the headlines themselves, scored 0-100 with 50 neutral — a read on the coverage, not on the crowd.
Social sentiment
No Reddit or StockTwits posts on file for this name in the last 7 days.

What this name did from here

Time machine

Each look-back point: the price then, the move to today, and what was going on — earnings, corporate events, news flow.

The readLower than a year agofact

The price at each look-back point and the move to today, with what was happening at the time — the per-ticker face of the track record.

Look-backs · vs the $132.02 close of 2026-08-10
3 months ago$133.20 -0.9% to today
6 months ago$132.43 -0.3% to today
1 year ago$141.97 -7.0% to today
3 years ago$81.60 +61.8% to today
history starts 2023-06-01
↳ In detail
Why we show the rear-view mirror
Every number on this page gets graded by what happens next. The time machine is the same idea pointed backwards: the state of this name at each past date and the move that followed, for any symbol — not a curated highlight reel.
Risk case · derived analysis

The risk case

The case against

What can break: how hard this name has fallen before, a sensible position cap, whether it behaves like a lottery ticket, how much cash it has left, how it drifts after earnings, whether the dividend holds, and what changed in the filings — plus a crowding read when its three inputs agree.

The readCoverage incompletewhere it sitsan experimental model estimate · the history-based reads below are graded separately

The case against the stock: how hard it has fallen before, how much cash it has left, how it behaves after earnings, whether the dividend holds, what changed in the filings, and how crowded the trade is.

Avoid score · v2.1 isotonic model · experimental
The nightly batch has not scored this name yet — the model needs universe-wide ranking features that are not computed on demand.
Terminal fate · the cohort's ledger
Of 1242 large names tracked 2016-2026, 0.2% were delisted for cause within 24 months and 3.0% were acquired — historical frequencies for the cohort, not a forecast for this name.
Cohortlarge 2016-2026
12m outcomesfor-cause 0.1% [0.0%–0.2%] acquired 1.6% [1.3%–1.8%] · still listed 98.0% · n=1321
24m outcomesfor-cause 0.2% [0.1%–0.4%] acquired 3.1% [2.5%–3.7%] · still listed 96.0% · n=1242
36m outcomesfor-cause 0.4% [0.1%–0.7%] acquired 4.5% [3.6%–5.4%] · still listed 94.0% · n=1182
↳ In detail
Reading the fate ledger
Each row is what happened to every tracked name in this size cohort over that window — delisted for cause, acquired, or still listed — with the band around each rate. These are the cohort's historical frequencies, not probabilities for this name, and the acquisition arm is never an acquisition forecast.
Max defensible position size
4.5%max defensible size 4.5% - tail bindsn=10,596 · observational
Segmentlarge routing cohort
Vol tercilelow realized vol bucket
Momentum signneg trailing return direction
Half-Kelly105.5% Kelly criterion / 2
Tail cap4.5% VaR / CVaR limit
Cat cap90.1% catastrophe-rate limit
Binding constrainttail
Lottery profile
No lottery signal — trailing-21d max daily return is within the normal range for its cohort (large).
Cash runway · non-burner
Positive free cash flow — burner runway risk does not apply. Non-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).
Post-earnings drift · reaction vs sigma
+2.44% spread63-trading-day post-earnings drift, graded by reaction magnitude (bucket: 1-2)
Drift odds at full strength (+2.44% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).
Latest earnings reaction+2.9% 2026-08-04
Daily sigma (21d)2.15% baseline volatility used for z-score
Reaction size1-2 first-day move ÷ its normal daily move
Strength of evidence5.75 Newey–West t — how consistent the pattern is, not how many cases
↳ In detail
How post-earnings drift works
After an earnings reaction, how far price keeps drifting over the next 63 trading days depends on how big the first move was. A jump more than four times the stock's normal daily move usually spends the effect — the market has already repriced it. Milder reactions historically kept drifting, by about 3.2 percentage points in our sample.
Dividend reliability · evidence incomplete
Dividend yield1.74% profile value · percentage points
FCF coverage>2x free cash flow vs dividend
The calibration stores historical within-period yield-tercile cells but not the mapping for today's yield, so no cut or suspension probability is published.
Filing restatements
No material restatement on file in the trailing 2 years.

Calibration scorecard

Auditable track record

Every rating we publish is fingerprinted, tracked, and resolved in public. Here's how we've actually done.

14
calls logged
track record builds as calls resolve (5/8)
Resolved
5
resolved, below the publication threshold
Open calls
9
tracked, unresolved
APO track record
building
published once resolved