Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) — $9.57 −0.93%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

AGROpeers & supply-chain relationships

AGRO fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated not on fileVol 41.6K · Avg 1.65M
AGROAdecoagro S.A.$9.57-0.93%

SELL.

We're bearish on this stock — not a name to own here.

The net signal reads -4 — more evidence points down than up — and the balance-sheet safety score sits in its distress band, 1 accounting red flag is raised in the filings. Buying a dip into that is catching a falling stock, not finding value; the read stands until the signal or the company's condition improves.

QTick signal
-4net
2 bull / 2 bear factors · leaning
Bull 3 pts·Bear 7 pts30d
Bearish tape — sell
We're bearish on this stock — the tape and the structure both say so.
Market contextSector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · DistressPCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$9.61
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$10.29
center $10.29 · basis · sma 200 + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$0.69
7.2% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~85% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.1× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.03× · 41.6K vs 1.65M avg
52-week range$6.89 – $15.89
Below high since 2015-39.2% · $15.89 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.7
Plan stop$8.60
Max pain$2.50 far from the price — likely a stale options snapshot
RSI 1444.7 fires under 35 · fires near $8.67
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$9.57
$8.50 · -11.2%-11.2%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+7.2% · $10.26+7.2%
Entry strategy · 10 triggersBearish tape — sell
RSI 14
44.7
fires under 35 · fires near $8.67
vs 50-day
$10.32
below the line
Bollinger
$8.95
no lower pierce · fires near $8.79
VWAP 20
$10.07
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$9.61
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$10.00
below max put OI strike
MACD
-0.12
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.03×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
3.6%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.45
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
11 Aug 2026 · after the bell
amc · in -1 days
Next dividend
3.13% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed