Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) — Specialty Insurance. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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AGOpeers & supply-chain relationships

AGO earnings history

Qtick
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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 730.3K · 3-mo avg 386.8K

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)

AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd.loading…
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QTick signal
-1net
0 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 1 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on file—PCE inflation days · not on fileRiskFalling knife · 100/100 · was 36 on Sep 21 · as of 2026-09-252/6Bottom watch · 2 of 6 confirmations
Smart entry
$69.14
basis · low 52w + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$75–76
center $75.36 · basis · round + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
—
not on file
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
0.98× the norm · 77% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: falling knife
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.42×
52-week range$69.49 – $92.40
Below high since 2015-28.1% · $96.60 high
Risk / reward1.59 : 1
Plan stop$65.80
Max pain—
RSI 1432.6 washed out
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple10.1× fwd · 9.4× trailing
P/E vs its own past40th pctile · 9.8× median
Price / booknot on file

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 1.6%. Over the last 20 sessions, 78% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

4 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
✓
32.6
washed out
vs 50-day
✓
$76.66
below the line
Bollinger
●
$67.96
no lower pierce · fires near $67.53
VWAP 20
✓
$71.95
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$69.14
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context●
-0.15
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
1.42×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
5.4%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.67
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-05
in 30 sessions
Next dividend
2.19% yld
no ex-date on file
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