ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) — Biotechnology. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 3.36M · 3-mo avg 1.70M

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD)

ACADACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+1net
2 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 3 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileRiskFalling knife · 100/100 · was 49 on Sep 21 · as of 2026-09-251/6Bottom watch · 1 of 6 confirmations
Smart entry
$20.58
basis · low 52w + pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$27–28
center $27.34 · basis · sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$2.66
12.9% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 25% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
Elevated
1.20× the norm · 95% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: falling knife
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 25% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.74×
52-week range$19.69 – $30.96
Below high since 2015-65.4% · $59.72 high
Risk / reward2.99 : 1
Plan stop$18.45
Max pain$27.00 options cluster
RSI 1417.1 oversold
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple25.9× fwd · 10.8× trailing
P/E vs its own past20th pctile · 16.0× median
Free cash flow yield2.7% · of market value

Last session traded heavier than its own normal, price down 6.8%. Over the last 20 sessions, 75% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

6 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
✓
17.1
oversold
vs 50-day
✓
$27.45
below the line
Bollinger
✓
$22.85
lower-band pierce
VWAP 20
✓
$26.23
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$20.58
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$26.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-21
MACD
Context●
-0.50
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
1.74×
heavier than its own normal
Short int.Static
7.6%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.06
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-04
in 29 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file