Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) — $55.73 −3.58%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

AAPpeers & supply-chain relationships

AAP fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 1.19M · Avg 1.93M
AAPAdvance Auto Parts, Inc.$55.73-3.58%Pre-market$55.730.00%

WAIT.

Not worth owning here — the balance sheet is under real strain and the filings carry red flags.

The balance-sheet safety score sits in its distress band and 1 accounting red flag is raised — the quality screen fails at any price. 2 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+1net
2 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 4 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
2 of 6 aligned — not yet
Quality fails the screen — a distress-zone balance sheet with forensic flags.
Market contextSector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · DistressPCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$55.45
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$57–58
center $57.36 · basis · daily pivot + round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$4.17
7.5% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~95% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.2× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.62× · 1.19M vs 1.93M avg
52-week range$37.89 – $65.21
Below high since 2015-75.6% · $228.24 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.4
Plan stop$50.37
Max pain$56.00 options cluster
RSI 1447.2 fires under 35 · fires near $48.65
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$55.73
$47.46 · -14.8%-14.8%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+7.5% · $59.90+7.5%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
47.2
fires under 35 · fires near $48.65
vs 50-day
$57.40
below the line
Bollinger
$51.47
no lower pierce · fires near $50.61
VWAP 20
$55.53
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $55.52
Entry level
$55.45
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$50.00
OI strike below · fires near $50.25
MACD
+0.17
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.62×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
29.0%
29.0% of float short — crowded
ATRStatic
$2.54
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
13 Aug 2026 · before the bell
bmo · in 1 days
Next dividend
1.79% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed