Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) — Building Products & Equipment. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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WMS fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 784.2K · 3-mo avg 720.2K

Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS)

WMSAdvanced Drainage Systems, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+7net
4 bull / 0 bear factors · moderate
Bull 7 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 6/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$132.11
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$137–139
center $137.91 · basis · bb upper + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$4.41
3.3% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
Low
0.77× the norm · 61% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.98×
52-week range$124.75 – $179.32
Below high since 2015-27.8% · $184.27 high
Risk / reward0.56 : 1
Plan stop$124.66
Max pain$130.00 options cluster
RSI 1450.5 fires under 35 · fires near $123.68
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple17.5× fwd · 22.1× trailing
P/E vs its own past42nd pctile · 24.3× median
Free cash flow yield5.8% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 3.3%. Over the last 20 sessions, 49% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
50.5
fires under 35 · fires near $123.68
vs 50-day
✓
$138.13
below the line
Bollinger
●
$123.11
no lower pierce · fires near $121.70
VWAP 20
●
$129.87
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $129.87
Entry level
✓
$132.11
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$130.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-22
MACD
Context✓
+0.27
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.98×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
4.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$3.73
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-05
in 30 sessions
Next dividend
0.60% yld
no ex-date on file