T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) — $178.20 +0.57%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

TMUSpeers & supply-chain relationships

TMUS fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 3.79M · Avg 5.41M
TMUST-Mobile US, Inc.$178.20+0.57%

WAIT.

Not worth owning here — the balance sheet is under real strain and the filings carry red flags.

The balance-sheet safety score sits in its distress band and 2 accounting red flags are raised — the quality screen fails at any price. 3 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+2net
3 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 6 pts·Bear 4 pts30d
3 of 6 aligned — closing in
Quality fails the screen — a distress-zone balance sheet with forensic flags.
Market contextSector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · DistressCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 1.0× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$177.31
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$180–184
center $181.65 · basis · daily pivot + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$10.10
5.7% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~78% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.2× base rate
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.70× · 3.79M vs 5.41M avg
52-week range$165.66 – $261.56
Below high since 2015-35.5% · $276.49 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.3
Plan stop$162.35
Max pain$177.50 options cluster
RSI 1447.6 fires under 35 · fires near $159.85
Forensic flags2 review
What-if price
$178.20
$157.52 · -11.6%-11.6%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+5.7% · $188.30+5.7%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
47.6
fires under 35 · fires near $159.85
vs 50-day
$181.97
below the line
Bollinger
$167.00
no lower pierce · fires near $164.50
VWAP 20
$180.68
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$177.31
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$165.00
OI strike below · fires near $165.79
MACD
-0.28
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.70×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
4.7%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$7.48
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
22 Oct 2026
· in 71 days
Next dividend
USD 1.02
ex-date 2026-08-28
prices 15-min delayed