TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) — Aerospace & Defense. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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TDG fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 293.3K · 3-mo avg 371.6K

TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG)

TDGTransDigm Group Incorporatedloading…
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QTick signal
-1net
2 bull / 3 bear factors · balanced
Bull 4 pts·Bear 5 pts30d
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$1,191.02
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 6
$1,211–1,230
near the top of its usual range, a resistance level and the 200-day average · midpoint $1,220.47 · Nov 6
±$85.59
±7.2% up or down, priced by the options market
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
In line
68% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.0× the usual rate
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
Trading volume18% below normal0.82× its 20-day average
Past year's range$1,071.25 – $1,463.03lowest to highest price
From its peak26.3% belowpeak $1,623.83, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.29 to 1$0.29 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$1,116.11the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$1,170.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)60.0fires under 35 · fires near $1,034.34
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit24.6× next year36.3× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 14%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 45.2×
Cash it generates2.7%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 0.7%. Over the last 20 sessions, 36% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
60.0
fires under 35 · fires near $1,034.34
vs 50-day
●
$1,130.04
above the line · fires near $1,139.97
Bollinger
●
$1,081.46
no lower pierce · fires near $1,069.20
VWAP 20
●
$1,150.79
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $1,150.53
Entry level
✓
$1,191.02
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$1,250.00
2026-11-20 expiry · chain of 2026-11-06
MACD
Context✓
+7.73
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.82×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
1.9%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$37.46
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-10
in 2 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file