Deep dive · PCX: SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust stock analysis
Everything behind the call on State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tapeOverseas lean0.00%
FrankfurtSRD0.00%⏱MéxicoSPY*0.00%⏱Tokyo15570.00%⏱London0KZC0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 4 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Chart pattern
Above both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $759.91 · +1.5%
200-day $714.84 · +7.9%
200-day $714.84 · +7.9%
Dividend
0.73%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
None flagged
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 1.00 · vol 10% ann.
worst drawdown -9%
worst drawdown -9%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does262 chars
The trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the “Portfolio”), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
PCX · USD
$771.35+4.17 · +0.54%CLOSED · vol 36.63M
52-week range↑ 23% off low · ↓ 1.0% off high
$629.28now $771.35$779.37
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01
Survival & solvency
and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
n/aNA
Piotroski F-score not available. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheet
Your ownership stake
Data unavailableShare-count history for this name is not on file, so dilution, buyback yield and stock-comp intensity cannot be computed. They appear once two annual filings are parsed.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE A
100 / 100
0 critical · 0 watch · 1 clear of 1 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressNAn/aAltman-Z not available · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationNAn/aBeneish-M not available · fundamentals
LeverageNAn/aLong-term debt / equity not available · fundamentals
Profitability qualityNAn/aPiotroski F-score not available · fundamentals
Filing forensicsCLEAR0 flagsno filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02
Business quality
The quality blocks below render whatever the filings support; anything absent says so in place.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
12-1 momentum
+16.8%EX LAST MONTH
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Profitability
Data unavailableNo parsed income statement is on file, so margins, returns on capital and cash generation cannot be computed for this name.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month0.0%
3 months+4.1%
6 months+21.6%
Year to date+12.9%
1 year+17.2%
Relative-strength rankTOP 28%
72 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earnings
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — no measured print on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
0.73%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,479,705
21d49%0.0%695,010
63d51%+0.1%220,093
slope -0.00 over 40 bars
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%1,216,877
21d51%+0.1%572,733
63d52%+0.3%181,607
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Triple top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%975,500
21d52%+0.2%458,215
63d54%+0.5%144,909
three peaks ≈ equal
Head and shoulders · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%499,633
21d51%+0.1%235,260
63d51%+0.3%74,900
head above two ≈-equal shoulders — bearish reversal
Triple bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%964,809
21d50%0.0%453,015
63d52%+0.3%142,744
three troughs ≈ equal
Descending triangle · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%506,531
21d48%0.0%238,519
63d49%0.0%75,354
flat support, falling resistance
Near resistance · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%530,198
21d52%+0.2%248,435
63d54%+0.4%78,078
testing recent resistance
03
Price & timing
Price $771.35, RSI 57.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Above 50 & 2003 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $759.91 · 200-day $714.84. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Up 0.54% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)WARM
57
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±0.9%
$6.81
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.79
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position81% OF RANGE
Upper band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE ABOVE
$763.61
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$754.72
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Unknownn=216,724
Pullback base rate 75% over 63 trading days (n=216,724).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
1.2σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$754 – $7673 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $767.67, Pivot low at $760.15, Pivot low at $757.60.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
4 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashBELOW CASH
-1.14pp
Cash pays more than the earnings yield today, so what you are buying is future growth rather than a current return.
Multiples
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported24.9×
0 of the 1 priced multiple above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$767.49Approach
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
Target52-week high
$777.44$776–$779
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
StopTucked under the entry zone
$752.49risk $15.00/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.66:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-1.5%
short-term trend line · $759.91
To the 200-day
-7.3%
primary trend line · $714.84
To the put wall
-1.5%
heaviest put open interest · $760.00
To the call wall
-0.2%
heaviest call open interest · $770.00
To the composer's target
+0.8%
52-week high · set Sep 25, 2026 · $777.44
To the composer's stop
-2.4%
Tucked under the entry zone · set Sep 25, 2026 · $752.49
To the 52-week high
+1.0%
highest print of the past year · $779.37
To the 52-week low
-18.4%
lowest print of the past year · $629.28
A typical day (ATR)
$764.54 – $778.16
±$6.81 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $767.49 · stop $752.49 · target $777.44, a 0.66:1 ratio. The composer flagged: low reward to risk.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 27, 2026
Call wallheaviest call OI
$770.00+0.5%
The strike with the heaviest call open interest. It tends to act as a ceiling into expiry.
Put wallheaviest put OI
$760.00-0.8%
The strike with the heaviest put open interest. Dealer hedging tends to cushion price here.
Options tapeLast snapshot before the 2026-09-11 expiry · Chain · Sep 27, 2026
Max pain-0.6%
$761.00
The strike where most open options would have expired worthless on the last snapshot. That expiry has passed; the next chain read replaces it.
Put / call ratio (OI)PUT-HEAVY
1.70
37% calls
63% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
1.13
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$760.00PUT49,223
$770.00CALL31,641
$763.00PUT19,269
$765.00CALL14,474
$760.00CALL11,751
$758.00PUT11,367
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-09-11 (expired)CallsPutsMax pain $761.00
8k
$773.00
1678k
$772.00
2546k
$771.00
65132k
$770.00
4456k
$769.00
1978k
$768.00
1k7k
$767.00
5k6k
$766.00
3k14k
$765.00
6k9k
$764.00
3k9k
$763.00
19k7k
$762.00
3k6k
$761.00
5k12k
$760.00
49k5k
$759.00
7k6k
$758.00
11k
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$779.37+1.8%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$770.00+0.5%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$761.00-0.6%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$759.91-0.8%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$760.00-0.8%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +1
Ownership & flow
The flow blocks below render whatever the filings support; anything absent says so in place.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+1BALANCED · 30d
1 bull / 0 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (71/100)
Signal
1 bull / 0 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +1 over 30d, a balanced reading. 1 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Funds entering / exitingNET -32
+20 / −52
Institutions opening a first position against those closing out entirely, at the latest filings.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
+0.54%
SPY rose +0.54% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (S27.SI) stock price, news, quote and history - Yahoo Finance Singapore” (Yahoo Finance Singapore).
News tone · 7-day—
71 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 49 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
FriState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (S27.SI) stock price, news, quote and history - Yahoo Finance SingaporeYahoo Finance Singaporenot scored
FriShould State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Be on Your Investing Radar? - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
FriShould State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Be on Your Investing Radar?Zacksnot scored
FriSPY Sep 2026 777.000 put (SPY260929P00777000) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo! Finance CanadaYahoo! Finance Canadanot scored
ThuSPY’s 9.45 Basis Points Hides $6,450 a Decade on $100,000 Versus Cheaper Peers - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
ThuSPY’s 9.45 Basis Points Hides $6,450 a Decade on $100,000 Versus Cheaper Peers - 247wallst.com247wallst.comnot scored
ThuSPY is down 0.5% today, on ORCL stock price movement - Quiver QuantitativeQuiver Quantitativenot scored
ThuSPY Sep 2026 580.000 call (SPY260924C00580000) stock price, news, quote and history - Yahoo Finance UKYahoo Finance UKnot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net buying.
4 of 6 disclosures are buys and 2 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
051 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.00, 10% annual volatility, a -9% worst drawdown, and 1 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−2.5%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−4.2%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.5×
A normal-curve estimate understates this name's worst days by about 1.5×, so volatility alone is the wrong risk measure for it.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-8.9%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)IN LINE
1.00
Moves about 1.0× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
10%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure18
Buying pressure25
Overheat7
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
3.4%tail cap binds
max defensible size 3.4% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
0.6%0.1× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 54.0% · tail cap 3.4% · category cap 13.7%. The tail cap binds, so 3.4% is the number (n=8,289). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowCash runwayNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
1 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 1 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.73% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
Our track record1 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
5 logged
5 calls logged on this name, 1 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on SPYTHIS NAME
5
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 1.
0610-K disclosed links
The wider context
1 connection.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+7.6% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peers
Data unavailableNo peer set is mapped for this name, so there is nothing to compare it against. The comparison needs a sector cohort with enough covered names to be meaningful.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stock
Data unavailableNo scheduled report or decision has a documented read for SPY's sector yet, and there is no price history around one on file. Both fill in as the company's sector is mapped and past reports are studied.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections1 link · none confirmed
Direct connections · 1 edge
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
ADX · Competitorcompetitor+0.70%Rumored · manual
0 of 1 edge is named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
Named competitors
ADXCompetitorcompetitor
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.