Somnigroup International Inc. (SGI) — $64.82 −0.66%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

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SGI fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 4.65M · Avg 2.88M
SGISomnigroup International Inc.$64.82-0.66%

STRIKE.

The triggers line up — but a falling knife cuts the strike.

3 of 5 entry triggers are firing and an entry level is on file — on triggers alone this would read STRIKE. But the stock is still dropping hard on heavy volume with no support underneath, and a live slide overrides the triggers: setups look their most tempting halfway down. The cut stands until the selling settles.

QTick signal
+3net
1 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 3 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
3 of 5 aligned — not yet
The triggers line up, but a falling knife cuts the strike — entry vetoed until the slide stabilizes.
Market contextSector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · GreyPCE sensitivity · not on fileRiskFalling-knife phase · 88/100 · was 49 on Aug 61/6Bottom watch · 1 of 6 confirmations
Smart entry
$64.50
basis · low 52w + pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$71–73
center $71.93 · basis · sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
not on file
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
High
~86% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.4× base rate
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg1.62× · 4.65M vs 2.88M avg
52-week range$60.39 – $98.56
Below high since 2015-34.2% · $98.56 high
Risk / reward1 : 1.1
Plan stop$58.00
Max pain
RSI 1438.0 fires under 35 · fires near $62.85
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$64.82
$58.87 · -9.2%-9.2%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+9.2% · $70.77+9.2%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers3 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
38.0
fires under 35 · fires near $62.85
vs 50-day
$71.84
below the line
Bollinger
$63.46
no lower pierce · fires near $63.04
VWAP 20
$68.69
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$64.50
within 1% of model level
Put wall
not on file
MACD
-0.48
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
1.62×
elevated versus recent average
Short int.Static
8.6%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$2.97
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
5 Nov 2026 · before the bell
bmo · in 85 days
Next dividend
1.05% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed