Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd. (NCLTY) — $9.61 +4.12%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

NCLTYpeers & supply-chain relationships

NCLTY fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated not on fileVol 13.8K · Avg 146.8K
NCLTYNitori Holdings Co., Ltd.$9.61+4.12%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

0 of 5 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 3. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+2net
1 bull / 0 bear factors · balanced
Bull 4 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
0 of 5 aligned — not yet
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on filePCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$8.51
basis · pivot low + sma 200 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$11–12
center $11.56 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
not on file
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Pullback risk
Elevated
~85% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.1× base rate
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Volume vs 20-day avg0.09× · 13.8K vs 146.8K avg
52-week range$6.90 – $11.56
Below high since 2023-42.1% · $16.68 high
Risk / reward1 : 3.3
Plan stop$7.59
Max pain
RSI 1477.7 overbought
Forensic flags0 clean
What-if price
$9.61
$7.37 · -23.3%-23.3%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+9.6% · $10.53+9.6%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers0 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
77.7
overbought
vs 50-day
$7.86
above the line · fires near $7.89
Bollinger
$6.62
no lower pierce · fires below the slider range
VWAP 20
$7.43
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $7.42
Entry level
$8.51
level below · fires near $8.59
Put wall
not on file
MACD
+0.07
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.09×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
not on file
ATRStatic
$0.46
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
not on file
Next dividend
1.04% yld
no ex-date on file
prices 15-min delayed