Radian Group Inc. (RDN) — Specialty Insurance. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 2:13 PM ETVol 1.18M · 3-mo avg 1.18M

Radian Group Inc. (RDN)

RDNRadian Group Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+1net
2 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 4 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on file—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 68/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$32.85
basis · s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$34.99
center $34.99 · basis · round + sma 200 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$2.15
6.5% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 10% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
Low
0.77× the norm · 61% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 10% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.11×
52-week range$31.50 – $41.05
Below high since 2015-19.6% · $41.05 high
Risk / reward1.14 : 1
Plan stop$31.29
Max pain$35.00 options cluster
RSI 1426.7 oversold
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple6.3× fwd · 8.2× trailing
P/E vs its own past58th pctile · 7.6× median
Price / book0.91×

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price down 1.6%. Over the last 20 sessions, 67% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

6 of 6 aligned — STRIKE
RSI 14
✓
26.7
oversold
vs 50-day
✓
$36.69
below the line
Bollinger
✓
$33.41
lower-band pierce
VWAP 20
✓
$35.32
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$32.85
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$35.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-25
MACD
Context●
-0.22
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
1.11×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
4.2%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.78
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
Next earnings
2026-11-03
in 27 sessions
Next dividend
3.09% yld
no ex-date on file