Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) — Resorts & Casinos. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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MTN fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 10, 2026 · 1:17 PM ETVol 112.8K · 3-mo avg 733.7K

Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN)

MTNVail Resorts, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
-6net
0 bull / 4 bear factors · moderate
Bull 2 pts·Bear 8 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · Distress—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 9
$159.09
near a support level · Nov 9 · price is already 1.6% below it
$163–165
near the 52-week high · midpoint $163.99 · Nov 9
±$0.02
±0.0% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
In line
85% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.1× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (3/6 bottoming checks met)
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
Trading volume15% below normal0.85× its 20-day average
Past year's range$118.51 – $163.34lowest to highest price
From its peak58.2% belowpeak $382.72, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.50 to 1$0.50 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$149.21the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$90.00far from the price, likely stale options data
Momentum (RSI)64.8fires under 35 · fires near $122.19
Accounting warning signs2worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit23.6× next year38.0× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 87%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 29.3×
Cash it generates5.7%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal. Over the last 20 sessions, 34% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
64.8
fires under 35 · fires near $122.19
vs 50-day
●
$143.33
above the line · fires near $144.46
Bollinger
●
$144.77
no lower pierce · fires near $143.15
VWAP 20
●
$152.84
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $152.76
Entry level
✓
$159.09
below the model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context✓
+0.17
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.85×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
19.7%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$4.93
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-12-09
in 20 sessions
Next dividend
5.68% yld
no ex-date on file