Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) — Aerospace & Defense. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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MRCY fair-value estimate

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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 17, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 576.0K · 3-mo avg 750.7K

Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY)

MRCYMercury Systems, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
-1net
2 bull / 3 bear factors · balanced
Bull 3 pts·Bear 4 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafePCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 33/100 · as of 2026-09-17
Smart entry
$85.75
basis · s1 · as of 2026-09-17
Target exit zone
$90–92
center $91.23 · basis · round + sma 200 · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
±$7.83
9.1% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 11% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
In line
1.07× the norm · 85% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (3/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 11% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.75×
52-week range$65.04 – $128.45
Below high since 2015-32.9% · $128.45 high
Risk / reward0.63 : 1
Plan stop$78.19
Max pain$90.00 options cluster
RSI 1443.6 fires under 35 · fires near $78.19
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple38.6× fwd · trailing n.m.
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield2.3% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price down 1.2%. Over the last 20 sessions, 63% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
43.6
fires under 35 · fires near $78.19
vs 50-day
$96.72
below the line
Bollinger
$78.01
no lower pierce · fires near $76.62
VWAP 20
$86.88
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$85.75
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$80.00
2026-09-18 expiry · chain of 2026-09-16
MACD
Context
+0.63
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.75×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
9.4%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$3.78
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2026-11-03
in 33 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file