Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) — Aerospace & Defense. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

How we compute this

MRCYpeers & supply-chain relationships

MRCY fair-value estimate

MRCY earnings history

Qtick
Sign in
Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 1.01M · 3-mo avg 705.5K

Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY)

MRCYMercury Systems, Inc.loading…
loading…
QTick signal
-1net
2 bull / 3 bear factors · balanced
Bull 3 pts·Bear 4 pts30d
loading…
Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 45/100 · Nov 6
$73.18
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 6
$79–81
near a round-number price, the 50-day average and the 50-day average trade price · midpoint $80.29 · Nov 6
±$10.98
±14.9% up or down, priced by the options market
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend
In line
95% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (1/6 bottoming checks met)
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend
Trading volume50% above normal1.50× its 20-day average
Past year's range$64.37 – $128.45lowest to highest price
From its peak42.7% belowpeak $128.45, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.68 to 1$0.68 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$63.64the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$80.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)44.5fires under 35 · fires near $67.58
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit33.0× next yearloss over the last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastusual P/E 237.8×median of the last 5 years
Cash it generates2.7%of its market value, per year

Last session traded heavier than its own normal, price up 12.2%. Over the last 20 sessions, 58% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
44.5
fires under 35 · fires near $67.58
vs 50-day
✓
$80.36
below the line
Bollinger
●
$69.36
no lower pierce · fires near $68.33
VWAP 20
✓
$75.39
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$73.18
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$40.00
2026-11-20 expiry · chain of 2026-11-06
MACD
Context●
-0.36
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
1.50×
heavier than its own normal
Short int.Static
10.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$4.77
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-10
in 2 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file