Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) — Aerospace & Defense. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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KRMN fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 2:12 PM ETVol 4.80M · 3-mo avg 3.47M

Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN)

KRMNKarman Holdings Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+3net
3 bull / 2 bear factors · leaning
Bull 5 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 38/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$35.38
basis · low 52w + pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$39–41
center $40.00 · basis · call wall + round · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$4.11
11.5% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.20× the norm · 95% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.15×
52-week range$32.20 – $118.38
Below high sincenot on file
Risk / reward0.80 : 1
Plan stop$30.28
Max pain$40.00 options cluster
RSI 1436.8 fires under 35 · fires near $35.15
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple130.8× trailing · forward not on file
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield-0.9% · burning cash

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 2.2%. Over the last 20 sessions, 62% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
36.8
fires under 35 · fires near $35.15
vs 50-day
✓
$46.69
below the line
Bollinger
●
$30.85
no lower pierce · fires near $29.76
VWAP 20
✓
$37.06
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$35.38
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$30.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-25
MACD
Context✓
+0.27
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
1.15×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
13.7%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$2.55
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-05
in 29 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file