Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) — Integrated Oil & Gas. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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IMO fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 10, 2026 · 12:45 PM ETVol 144.4K · 3-mo avg 582.2K

Imperial Oil Limited (IMO)

IMOImperial Oil Limitedloading…
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QTick signal
+1net
1 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 3 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on fileOKInflation-report days · ~29% smaller swingsOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 32/100 · Nov 10
$122.92
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 9
$128–130
near a round-number price, the 50-day average and the 50-day average trade price · midpoint $128.90 · Nov 9
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 5% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
In line
82% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (0/6 bottoming checks met)
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 5% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
Trading volume51% below normal0.49× its 20-day average
Past year's range$83.27 – $139.44lowest to highest price
From its peak11.4% belowpeak $139.44, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.55 to 1$0.55 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$112.15the setup is broken under this price
Momentum (RSI)40.4fires under 35 · fires near $117.11
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit11.4× next year13.5× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 73%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 10.5×

Trading lighter than its own normal, price down 0.8%. Over the last 20 sessions, 52% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

4 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
40.4
fires under 35 · fires near $117.11
vs 50-day
✓
$128.82
below the line
Bollinger
✓
$123.54
lower-band pierce
VWAP 20
✓
$131.11
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$122.92
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context●
-1.39
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.49×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
11.2%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$5.39
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-01-29
in 54 sessions
Next dividend
2.01% yld
no ex-date on file