Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) — Recreational Vehicles. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 1.99M · 3-mo avg 2.03M

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)

HOGHarley-Davidson, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
0net
1 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 2 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on file—Balance sheet · not on file—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 6
$32.50
near a support level · Nov 6
$34–35
near the top of its usual range, the 52-week high and a round-number price · midpoint $34.77 · Nov 6
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
In line
85% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.1× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
Trading volume17% below normal0.83× its 20-day average
Past year's range$17.09 – $34.84lowest to highest price
From its peak51.3% belowpeak $67.05, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.74 to 1$0.74 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$29.81the setup is broken under this price
Momentum (RSI)67.8fires under 35 · fires near $23.89
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit15.6× next year17.2× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 100%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 7.5×

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 0.2%. Over the last 20 sessions, 25% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
67.8
fires under 35 · fires near $23.89
vs 50-day
●
$27.70
above the line · fires near $27.83
Bollinger
●
$24.63
no lower pierce · fires near $23.78
VWAP 20
●
$30.00
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $30.00
Entry level
✓
$32.50
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context✓
+0.42
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.83×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
19.8%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.34
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-02-10
in 64 sessions
Next dividend
2.30% yld
no ex-date on file