Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) — Recreational Vehicles. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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HOG fair-value estimate

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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 18, 2026 · 10:22 AM ETVol 346.3K · 3-mo avg 2.37M

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)

HOGHarley-Davidson, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+3net
2 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 4 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on filePCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 4/100 · as of 2026-09-18
Smart entry
$26.37
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-17 · price is 1.5% inside the zone below it
Target exit zone
$30.23
center $30.23 · basis · high 52w + round · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
not on file
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.07× the norm · 85% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (1/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.07×
52-week range$17.09 – $29.88
Below high since 2015-60.5% · $67.05 high
Risk / reward2.02 : 1
Plan stop$24.46
Max pain
RSI 1445.9 fires under 35 · fires near $23.34
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple13.1× fwd · 14.6× trailing
P/E vs its own past90th pctile · 7.5× median
Price / booknot on file

Trading 1.07× its typical day, too early in the session to call the pace, price down 2.0%. Over the last 20 sessions, 56% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

4 of 5 aligned — STRIKE
RSI 14
45.9
fires under 35 · fires near $23.34
vs 50-day
$26.57
below the line
Bollinger
$26.43
lower-band pierce
VWAP 20
$27.45
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$26.37
below the model level
Put wall
not on file
MACD
Context
-0.18
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
1.07×
14% of the session so far — too early to call the pace
Short int.Static
17.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.95
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
Next earnings
2026-11-04
in 33 sessions
Next dividend
2.89% yld
no ex-date on file
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