Deep dive · NYSE: HMY
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tapeOverseas lean+2.27%
FrankfurtHAM+5.04%⏱London0J39+4.05%⏱MéxicoHMYN0.00%⏱ZurichHMY0.00%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 4 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-25
Wall Street rating
Buy
+16% to the average target
33% buy · 67% hold · 0% sell
median target $22
median target $22
Chart pattern
Above both averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $18.95 · +0.1%
200-day $18.23 · +4.1%
200-day $18.23 · +4.1%
Earnings
In 158 days
4 Mar 2027 · options imply ±9.6%
beat ≤2 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
cohort P(beat) 39% · n=20,787
Valuation
5.8× forward
Against consensus earnings
Dividend
4.11%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
2 on watch
5 checks run, 3 clear
beta 2.30 · vol 54% ann.
worst drawdown -49%
worst drawdown -49%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does162 chars
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of mineral properties in South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia.
NYSE · USDGold Mining
$18.97+0.42 · +2.26%CLOSED · vol 2.39M
52-week range↑ 46% off low · ↓ 27.2% off high
$13.03now $18.97$26.06
Quote Sep 25, 2026 · 4:02 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
Tape 2026-09-25
Factors 2026-09-25
01Ratios · Jul 7, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 2.1 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 3 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
2.13GREY ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJul 7, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)THIN
2.4σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
1.31%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreCLEAR
F 8/9
Piotroski F-score 8 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
44th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
80 / 100
0 critical · 2 watch · 3 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressWATCHZ 2.13Altman-Z in the Grey · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.98M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.04long-term debt 0.04× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCLEARF 8/9Piotroski F-score 8 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 3 clear and 2 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 27, 2026EXCELLENT · 82/100
Business quality
The quality blocks below render whatever the filings support; anything absent says so in place.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
82 / 100EXCELLENT
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 27, 2026
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-9.8%
3 months+25.0%
6 months+32.3%
Year to date-3.1%
1 year+10.4%
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+32.5%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 12%
88 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsMay 5, 2011
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
39%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT ≤2 OF THE LAST 8
1 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — needs ≥8 measured prints · 0 on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus bias0.64× COHORT
Persistent
consensus runs high for this name — it usually falls short
Next reportIN 158 DAYS
4 Mar 2027
Reports bmo · revenue 0.00
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
4.11%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 27, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,479,705
21d49%0.0%695,010
63d51%+0.1%220,093
slope +0.06 over 40 bars
Hanging man · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.2%162,356
21d48%-0.2%76,200
63d49%-0.3%24,370
long lower shadow, small body at top
Morning star · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d48%-0.1%134,105
21d49%-0.1%63,238
63d49%-0.3%20,225
3-bar bottom reversal
Double bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,247,184
21d50%0.0%586,365
63d51%+0.3%185,394
two troughs ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Descending triangle · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%506,531
21d48%0.0%238,519
63d49%0.0%75,354
flat support, falling resistance
Near support · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%536,115
21d53%+0.2%251,312
63d54%+0.4%78,900
testing recent support
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%764,373
21d45%0.0%357,385
63d47%0.0%112,620
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
035.8× FORWARD
Price & timing
Price $18.97, 5.8× forward earnings, RSI 46, and dealers long gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Above 50 & 2002 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $18.95 · 200-day $18.23. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-23 → 2026-09-25
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Up 2.26% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
46
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±4.2%
$0.79
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.24
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position20% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$19.78
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$20.30
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
4 Mar 2027 · in 158 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 29 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-29 · in 2 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.33× segment rate · n=6,737
Historically, large names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 88% of cases (n=6,737).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.2σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$18 – $192 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $18.72, Sma 200 at $18.23.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
21 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
9.98pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months5.8×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported6.7×
0 of the 2 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 25, 2026
Entryzone of S1 + sma 200
$18.88In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetDaily pivot + vwap 50
$19.32$19–$20
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$17.30risk $1.58/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.28:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-0.1%
short-term trend line · $18.95
To the 200-day
-3.9%
primary trend line · $18.23
To the put wall
+5.4%
heaviest put open interest · $20.00
To the call wall
+16.0%
heaviest call open interest · $22.00
To the composer's target
+1.8%
Daily pivot + vwap 50 · set Sep 25, 2026 · $19.32
To the composer's stop
-8.8%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 25, 2026 · $17.30
To the 52-week high
+37.4%
highest print of the past year · $26.06
To the 52-week low
-31.3%
lowest print of the past year · $13.03
Options-implied week ±9.6%
$17.15 – $20.79
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$18.18 – $19.76
±$0.79 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $18.88 · stop $17.30 · target $19.32, a 0.28:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, low reward to risk, target inside one week's move.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 27, 2026
Signal
Long gamma — moves get absorbed.
Dealers hedge against the move, which damps volatility around the current strikes. It makes the tape quieter without saying anything about which way it goes.
Options tapeFront expiry 2026-10-16 · Chain · Sep 27, 2026
Max pain+6.4%
$20.00
The strike where most open options expire worthless. Price often drifts toward it into expiry.
Put / call ratio (OI)CALL-HEAVY
0.26
79% calls
21% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
5.75
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $1.80
±9.6%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$22.00CALL2,724
$20.00CALL2,596
$20.00PUT426
$21.00PUT326
$18.00PUT303
$23.00CALL179
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-10-16CallsPutsMax pain $20.00
0
$30.00
01
$28.00
01
$27.00
695
$26.00
016
$25.00
00
$24.00
2179
$23.00
1643k
$22.00
080
$21.00
3263k
$20.00
42679
$19.00
8733
$18.00
30346
$17.00
365
$16.00
10711
$15.00
6
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$26.06+38.6%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$22.00+17.0%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$20.00+6.4%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$18.95+0.8%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$20.00+6.4%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +3
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 16%, short interest is 1.90% of float, and 1 analysts average $22.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+3LEANING · 30d
2 bull / 0 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
+2
strong Piotroski F-score (8/9)
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (67/100)
Signal
2 bull / 0 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +3 over 30d, a leaning reading. 2 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street1 covering firms
Consensus rating1 ANALYSTS
Buy
33% buy · 67% hold · 0% sell, as a share of the 1 covering firms.
Median price target+16%
$22
$19now $19$24
A $19–$24 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$3.27
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
16.4%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
0.0%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
1.90%
Rising — shares short changed +6.5% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float86% OF SHARES
544.36M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)83rd PCTILE
$68.24M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
+2.26%
HMY rose +2.26% since the last close, amid recent coverage: “Why (HMY) Price Action Is Critical for Tactical Trading - Stock Traders Daily” (Stock Traders Daily).
News tone · 7-day—
67 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 49 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
FriWhy (HMY) Price Action Is Critical for Tactical Trading - Stock Traders DailyStock Traders Dailynot scored
WedHMY Mar 2027 12.000 call (HMY270319C00012000) interactive stock chart - Yahoo Finance AustraliaYahoo Finance Australianot scored
WedHMY Mar 2027 23.000 put (HMY270319P00023000) interactive stock chart - Yahoo Finance UKYahoo Finance UKnot scored
WedHMY Nov 2026 29.000 call (HMY261120C00029000) interactive stock chart – Yahoo Finance - Yahoo Finance SingaporeYahoo Finance Singaporenot scored
WedHMY Sep 2027 35.000 call (HMY270917C00035000) stock price, news, quote and history - Yahoo Finance SingaporeYahoo Finance Singaporenot scored
WedHMY Nov 2026 31.000 put (HMY261120P00031000) interactive stock chart – Yahoo Finance - Yahoo Finance SingaporeYahoo Finance Singaporenot scored
WedHMY Oct 2026 18.000 put (HMY261016P00018000) stock price, news, quote and history - Yahoo Finance UKYahoo Finance UKnot scored
WedHMY Sep 2027 20.000 call (HMY270917C00020000) stock price, news, quote and history - Yahoo Finance SingaporeYahoo Finance Singaporenot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0511 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 2.30, 54% annual volatility, a -49% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−11.5%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−17.8%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementNEAR-NORMAL
1.3×
The tail runs close to what a normal curve would predict, so volatility is a reasonable proxy for risk here — which is not true of every name.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-48.8%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)AMPLIFIES
2.30
Moves about 2.3× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
54%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure60
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.4%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.4% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
6.5%0.7× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.7× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 22.5% · tail cap 2.4% · category cap 90.1%. The tail cap binds, so 2.4% is the number (n=21,870). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 6.7% against a 7.8% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -49%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 54% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You're already heavy in this market
A 2.30 beta means you would be stacking the same bet rather than spreading it.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.4% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record11 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
24 logged
24 calls logged on this name, 11 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on HMYTHIS NAME
24
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 11.
0610-K disclosed linksGOLD MINING
The wider context
5 mapped peers.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-94.8% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
NEMPeer$121.43+0.11%
NEMCLPeer$128.000.00%
AEMPeer$194.48+0.31%
BPeer$42.88+1.32%
WPMPeer$142.92-0.67%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 19, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
A slowing economy uses less steel, copper and chemicals.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +1.2% · Two weeks later +2.2% · Rose on 85 of 170 report days
Across the last 170 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, HMY moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 2.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Gold pays no interest, so it loses appeal when rates rise and the dollar strengthens.
Typical for the Gold Mining industry
On the day +0.1% · A week later +1.7% · Two weeks later +4.6% · Rose on 15 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, HMY moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 4.6% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
Lumber, cement and gravel.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.8% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later 0.0% · Rose on 22 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, HMY moved +0.8% on average on the day and was 0.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
More building and manufacturing means more demand for raw materials.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.6% · A week later +2.2% · Two weeks later +1.3% · Rose on 20 of 39 report days
Across the last 39 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, HMY moved +0.6% on average on the day and was 1.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expectedA busy economy uses more steel, copper and chemicals.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later +3.3% · Two weeks later +5.0% · Rose on 20 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, HMY moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 5.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is due in 5 days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually helps when hiring comes in stronger than expectedA busy economy uses more steel, copper and chemicals.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +3.3% · Two weeks later +6.0% · Rose on 19 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2023, HMY moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 6.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Unemployment rate is due in 5 days.
Unemployment rateUsually hurts when unemployment rises more than expectedA slowing economy uses less steel, copper and chemicals.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +2.7% · Two weeks later +5.9% · Rose on 18 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Unemployment rate reports since Jul 6, 2023, HMY moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 5.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
GDP (advance estimate)Usually helps when the economy grows faster than expected
More building and manufacturing means more demand for raw materials.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day -1.0% · A week later +1.2% · Two weeks later +1.3% · Rose on 3 of 13 report days
Across the last 13 GDP (advance estimate) reports since Jul 28, 2023, HMY moved -1.0% on average on the day and was 1.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections
Data unavailableNo competitor, partner, supplier or customer relationship is on file for this name yet.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.