Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — Gold Mining. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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HMYpeers & supply-chain relationships

HMY fair-value estimate

HMY earnings history

Qtick
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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 11:41 AM ETVol 2.39M · 3-mo avg 3.60M

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY)

HMYHarmony Gold Mining Company Limitedloading…
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QTick signal
+3net
2 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 3 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · Grey—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 21/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$18.88
basis · s1 + sma 200 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$19–20
center $19.32 · basis · daily pivot + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$1.82
9.6% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.33× the norm · 88% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (1/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.56×
52-week range$13.03 – $26.06
Below high since 2015-27.2% · $26.06 high
Risk / reward0.21 : 1
Plan stop$17.30
Max pain$20.00 options cluster
RSI 1446.1 fires under 35 · fires near $16.70
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple5.7× fwd · 6.6× trailing
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Price / booknot on file

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price up 2.3%. Over the last 20 sessions, 67% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

4 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
46.1
fires under 35 · fires near $16.70
vs 50-day
✓
$18.95
at the line
Bollinger
●
$18.45
no lower pierce · fires near $18.31
VWAP 20
✓
$19.78
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$18.88
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$20.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-25
MACD
Context●
-0.26
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.56×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
1.9%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.79
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-03-04
in 109 sessions
Next dividend
USD 0.20
ex-date 2026-10-09
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