Deep dive · NYSE: HAFN
Hafnia Limited stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Hafnia Limited. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — HAFN trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-11-06
Chart pattern
Between the averages
The 50-day sits above the 200-day
50-day $9.79 · -4.3%
200-day $7.66 · +22.3%
200-day $7.66 · +22.3%
Earnings
In 10 days
18 Nov 2026
beat 5–6 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=46,131
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=46,131
Valuation
13.2× forward
71st of its own five-year range
5yr median 5×
FCF yield 9.79%
FCF yield 9.79%
Dividend
11.85%
Forward annual yield at today's price
Risk flags
4 on watch
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 0.14 · vol 45% ann.
worst drawdown -28%
worst drawdown -28%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does97 chars
Hafnia Limited., an investment holding company, owns and operates oil product tankers in Bermuda.
NYSE · USDMarine Shipping
$9.37+0.03 · +0.32%CLOSED · vol 2.58M
52-week range↑ 81% off low · ↓ 15.7% off high
$5.17now $9.37$11.12
Quote Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
Tape 2026-11-06
Factors 2026-11-06
01
Survival & solvency
and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 5/9WATCH
Piotroski F-score 5 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetNov 8, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills1.48×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.48
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$1.02B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
56th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE C
60 / 100
0 critical · 4 watch · 1 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressWATCHZ 2.88Altman-Z in the Grey · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationWATCHM -2.10M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.37long-term debt 0.37× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 5/9Piotroski F-score 5 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 4 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Nov 8, 2026FAIR · 44/100
Business quality
15% net margin, 15% return on equity, -20% revenue growth, and capital earning 11% against a 6% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
44 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Nov 8, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
14.9%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
19.2%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
15.7%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
14.6%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
4.6pp
Earns 11% on invested capital that costs about 6%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-13.6%
3 months+25.1%
6 months+4.6%
Year to date+75.8%
1 year+51.6%
Revenue growth (YoY)SHRINKING
-20.5%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
-55.3%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+107.1%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 5%
95 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 28, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
64%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 5–6 OF THE LAST 8
5 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
40%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±3.3%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus bias1.05× COHORT
Persistent
beats most quarters, by thin margins
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
11.85%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Cash coveragefree cash flow
>2x
Whether the payment is funded out of the cash the business generates.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Nov 6, 2026
Uptrend · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.1%1,163,542
21d47%-0.4%549,860
63d47%-0.8%174,335
slope +0.10 over 40 bars
Double top · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d49%0.0%1,261,485
21d50%0.0%593,026
63d52%+0.4%187,344
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Ascending triangle · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%667,086
21d51%+0.1%313,950
63d53%+0.4%99,082
flat resistance, rising support
0371ST OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $9.37, 13.2× forward earnings, RSI 39.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed1 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $9.79 · 200-day $7.66. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-11-04 → 2026-11-06
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 0.32% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
39
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±4.6%
$0.43
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.20
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position0% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$10.34
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$9.83
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
18 Nov 2026 · in 10 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number.
2026-11-10 · in 2 daysInflation (CPI)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Elevated1.12× segment rate · n=1,053
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 89% of cases (n=1,053).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-2.1σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$9 – $91 support
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $9.22.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
73 / 100Falling knife
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
8.45pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-1.99
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months13.2×5yr median 5×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported7.3×71st of its 5yr range
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth0.16
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit2.0×5yr median 1.3×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets2.0×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay9.6×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off12.5×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value9.79%
0 of the 8 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingNov 6, 2026
Entryzone of S1
$9.32In zone
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetSma 50 + vwap 50
$9.77$10–$10
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$8.47risk $0.86/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.52:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+4.5%
short-term trend line · $9.79
To the 200-day
-18.2%
primary trend line · $7.66
To the composer's target
+4.3%
Sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Nov 6, 2026 · $9.77
To the composer's stop
-9.7%
2× ATR below entry · set Nov 6, 2026 · $8.47
To the 52-week high
+18.6%
highest print of the past year · $11.12
To the 52-week low
-44.8%
lowest print of the past year · $5.17
A typical day (ATR)
$8.94 – $9.80
±$0.43 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $9.32 · stop $8.47 · target $9.77, a 0.52:1 ratio. The composer flagged: low reward to risk.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -1
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 37%, short interest is 1.81% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-1BALANCED · 30d
0 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
-1
latest EPS missed by 7%
Signal
0 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -1 over 30d, a balanced reading. 1 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipRETAIL-HEAVY
36.8%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
42.7%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
1.81%
Rising — shares short changed +274.9% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float49% OF SHARES
241.63M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)73rd PCTILE
$23.11M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
+0.32%
HAFN was little changed +0.32% since the last close — no notable catalyst, and the move itself was modest.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0520 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.14, 45% annual volatility, a -28% worst drawdown, and 4 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-28.0%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.14
The market explains about 0.2% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
45%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Falling knife
Selling pressure62
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: falling_knife — Still breaking lower without consolidation — a fresh swing-low printed and no basing pattern has formed yet.
What votes againstNightly
LowEarningslatest EPS missed by 7%4 quarters · -1
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.6%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.6% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
0.8%0.1× its cohort · heavily-traded large-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this heavily-traded large-caps segment: 8.0%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 28.1% · tail cap 2.6% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.6% is the number (n=120,445). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 3.5% against a 14.4% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+3.21% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
4 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 4 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 10 days.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.6% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record20 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
40 logged
40 calls logged on this name, 20 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
0610-K disclosed linksMARINE SHIPPING
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 3 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+9.2% per +1ppMEASURED
Measured against the 10-year yield: a one-point move in the yield has come with about a 9.2% move here, independent of company news.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
NMPGYPeer$16.050.00%
KEXPeer$121.00+1.28%
MATXPeer$211.93-0.91%
SBLKPeer$26.73+0.87%
ZIMPeer$27.95+1.90%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2024-04-10
Signal
Every backward window is positive.
That is the definition of a stock that has already worked, and it says nothing about the next window. What it does tell you is what a drawdown would be measured against.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 2 DAYS
Inflation (CPI)
2026-11-10. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockNov 6, 2026
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
Industrial companies sell into exactly this activity.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later +1.4% · Two weeks later +1.5% · Rose on 16 of 29 report days
Across the last 29 Industrial production reports since May 16, 2024, HAFN moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 1.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
GDP (advance estimate)Usually helps when the economy grows faster than expected
Industrial companies sell into exactly this activity.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.8% · A week later +1.7% · Two weeks later +2.5% · Rose on 8 of 10 report days
Across the last 10 GDP (advance estimate) reports since Apr 28, 2024, HAFN moved +0.8% on average on the day and was 2.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
Rising layoffs signal factories and builders are slowing.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +0.9% · Rose on 63 of 127 report days
Across the last 127 Initial jobless claims reports since Apr 18, 2024, HAFN moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 0.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Housing starts is due in 10 days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expectedBuilding products and equipment makers.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later -0.3% · Two weeks later +0.7% · Rose on 15 of 31 report days
Across the last 31 Housing starts reports since Apr 20, 2024, HAFN moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Core PCE (the Fed's gauge)Usually hurts when inflation runs hotter than expected
Factories pay more for materials before they can raise their own prices, and higher rates slow orders.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +1.2% · Two weeks later +1.5% · Rose on 15 of 29 report days
Across the last 29 Core PCE (the Fed's gauge) reports since Apr 28, 2024, HAFN moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 1.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Costlier financing slows factory and equipment orders.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later +0.2% · Two weeks later +0.5% · Rose on 13 of 29 report days
Across the last 29 FOMC decision reports since May 1, 2024, HAFN moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 0.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expected
Strong hiring means factories and builders are busy.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day +0.6% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +1.7% · Rose on 15 of 29 report days
Across the last 29 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since May 5, 2024, HAFN moved +0.6% on average on the day and was 1.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually helps when hiring comes in stronger than expected
Strong hiring means factories and builders are busy.
Typical for the Industrials sector
On the day -0.7% · A week later +0.3% · Two weeks later +1.5% · Rose on 11 of 29 report days
Across the last 29 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since May 6, 2024, HAFN moved -0.7% on average on the day and was 1.5% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.2% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections3 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 3 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
STNG · Competitorcompetitor+0.02%Rumored · manual
DMCOF · Competitorcompetitornot pricedRumored · manual
ASC · Competitorcompetitor+1.93%Rumored · manual
0 of 3 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.