Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) — Engineering & Construction. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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GVA fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 10, 2026 · 1:01 PM ETVol 88.8K · 3-mo avg 631.7K

Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA)

GVAGranite Construction Incorporatedloading…
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QTick signal
+9net
5 bull / 0 bear factors · moderate
Bull 9 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 9
$124.30
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 9
$125–128
near a resistance level and the 200-day average · midpoint $126.49 · Nov 9
±$0.01
±0.0% up or down, priced by the options market
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
In line
95% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (3/6 bottoming checks met)
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
Trading volume40% below normal0.60× its 20-day average
Past year's range$97.26 – $162.08lowest to highest price
From its peak22.9% belowpeak $162.08, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk0.20 to 1$0.20 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$113.09the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$65.00far from the price, likely stale options data
Momentum (RSI)58.2fires under 35 · fires near $97.74
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit14.7× next year41.1× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 67%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 32.9×
Cash it generates6.2%of its market value, per year

Last session traded lighter than its own normal. Over the last 20 sessions, 30% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
58.2
fires under 35 · fires near $97.74
vs 50-day
●
$116.15
above the line · fires near $117.06
Bollinger
●
$98.81
no lower pierce · fires below the slider range
VWAP 20
●
$116.46
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $116.40
Entry level
✓
$124.30
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$140.00
2026-11-20 expiry · chain of 2026-11-10
MACD
Context✓
+1.55
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.60×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
9.6%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$5.60
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-02-11
in 63 sessions
Next dividend
0.42% yld
no ex-date on file
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