Graco Inc. (GGG) — Specialty Industrial Machinery. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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GGG fair-value estimate

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Qtick
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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 1.11M · 3-mo avg 1.81M

Graco Inc. (GGG)

GGGGraco Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
0net
2 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 3 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 19/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$77.47
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$78.81
center $78.81 · basis · bb upper + daily pivot + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$4.58
5.9% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
Low
0.71× the norm · 47% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.44×
52-week range$72.51 – $95.69
Below high since 2015-18.6% · $95.69 high
Risk / reward0.21 : 1
Plan stop$73.23
Max pain$80.00 options cluster
RSI 1450.3 fires under 35 · fires near $74.37
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple22.2× fwd · 24.4× trailing
P/E vs its own past13th pctile · 27.3× median
Free cash flow yield5.1% · of market value

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price up 0.9%. Over the last 20 sessions, 71% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
50.3
fires under 35 · fires near $74.37
vs 50-day
✓
$78.99
below the line
Bollinger
●
$75.54
no lower pierce · fires near $75.23
VWAP 20
●
$77.37
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $77.34
Entry level
✓
$77.47
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$75.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-21
MACD
Context✓
+0.12
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.44×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
3.9%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.21
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-21
in 19 sessions
Next dividend
USD 0.29
ex-date 2026-10-19
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