Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) — Aerospace & Defense. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 5.29M · 3-mo avg 3.70M

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY)

FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+1net
2 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 3 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 1/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$24.24
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$62–63
center $62.17 · basis · high 52w · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$2.79
11.4% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Pullback risk
In line
1.20× the norm · 95% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Volume vs its own 20-session average1.84×
52-week range$16.00 – $62.17
Below high sincenot on file
Risk / reward9.88 : 1
Plan stop$20.53
Max pain$20.00 options cluster
RSI 1458.1 fires under 35 · fires below the slider range
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiplen.m. — no profit expected
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield-6.1% · burning cash

Last session traded heavier than its own normal, price up 5.5%. Over the last 20 sessions, 53% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
58.1
fires under 35 · fires below the slider range
vs 50-day
●
$22.39
above the line · fires near $22.57
Bollinger
●
$19.60
no lower pierce · fires near $19.51
VWAP 20
●
$21.81
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $21.80
Entry level
✓
$24.24
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$18.00
2026-09-25 expiry · chain of 2026-09-21
MACD
Context●
0.00
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
1.84×
heavier than its own normal
Short int.Static
11.3%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$1.68
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-11
in 34 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file