e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) — Household & Personal Products. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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ELF fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 10, 2026 · 1:17 PM ETVol 371.8K · 3-mo avg 1.85M

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF)

ELFe.l.f. Beauty, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
0net
3 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 5 pts·Bear 5 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · Grey—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 9
$118.75
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 9
$122–125
near a resistance level and the 52-week high · midpoint $123.13 · Nov 9
±$10.30
±8.6% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
In line
85% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.1× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day — an uptrend
Trading volume54% above normal1.54× its 20-day average
Past year's range$48.82 – $139.35lowest to highest price
From its peak46.2% belowpeak $221.83, highest since 2016
Gain vs. risk0.26 to 1$0.26 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$105.26the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$119.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)65.0fires under 35 · fires near $96.36
Accounting warning signs3worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit121.9× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 88%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 71.9×
Cash it generates2.8%of its market value, per year

Last session traded heavier than its own normal. Over the last 20 sessions, 47% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
65.0
fires under 35 · fires near $96.36
vs 50-day
●
$106.53
above the line · fires near $107.25
Bollinger
●
$107.91
no lower pierce · fires near $107.55
VWAP 20
●
$113.85
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $113.73
Entry level
✓
$118.75
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context✓
+1.05
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
1.54×
heavier than its own normal
Short int.Static
20.0%
20.0% of float short — crowded
ATRStatic
$5.90
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-02-03
in 57 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file