Ecovyst Inc. (ECVT) — $10.08 −2.89%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

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ECVTpeers & supply-chain relationships

ECVT fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated not on fileVol 979.0K · Avg 2.23M
ECVTEcovyst Inc.$10.08-2.89%

STRIKE.

The triggers line up — but a falling knife cuts the strike.

6 of 6 entry triggers are firing and an entry level is on file — on triggers alone this would read STRIKE. But the stock is still dropping hard on heavy volume with no support underneath, and a live slide overrides the triggers: setups look their most tempting halfway down. The cut stands until the selling settles.

QTick signal
+2net
2 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 4 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
6 of 6 aligned — not yet
The triggers line up, but a falling knife cuts the strike — entry vetoed until the slide stabilizes.
Market contextSector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · GreyPCE sensitivity · not on fileRiskFalling-knife phase · 74/100 · was 0 on Aug 60/6Bottom watch · 0 of 6 confirmations
Smart entry
$10.03
basis · s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$12.36
center $12.36 · basis · sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$0.74
7.3% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 18% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
Elevated
~89% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.1× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 18% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs 20-day avg0.44× · 979.0K vs 2.23M avg
52-week range$7.35 – $15.09
Below high since 2017-46.4% · $18.81 high
Risk / reward1 : 2.5
Plan stop$9.11
Max pain$2.50 far from the price — likely a stale options snapshot
RSI 1421.1 oversold
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$10.08
$9.34 · -7.3%-7.3%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+7.3% · $10.82+7.3%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers6 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
21.1
oversold
vs 50-day
$12.36
below the line
Bollinger
$10.53
lower-band pierce
VWAP 20
$12.09
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$10.03
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$12.50
below max put OI strike
MACD
-0.18
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.44×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
3.3%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.46
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
5 Nov 2026
· in 86 days
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file
prices 15-min delayed