Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) — $45.47 +15.17%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

CLMTpeers & supply-chain relationships

CLMT fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 2.67M · Avg 1.02M
CLMTCalumet, Inc.$45.47+15.17%Pre-market$46.05+1.28%

WAIT.

Not worth owning here — the balance sheet is under real strain and the filings carry red flags.

The balance-sheet safety score sits in its distress band and 1 accounting red flag is raised — the quality screen fails at any price. 0 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+1net
2 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 4 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
0 of 6 aligned — not yet
Quality fails the screen — a distress-zone balance sheet with forensic flags.
Market contextSector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · DistressPCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$42.58
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit
at new highs
Implied move · 1 wk
±$4.67
10.3% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure · stretched above 50-day · mean-reversion risk
Pullback risk
Elevated
~96% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.2× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure · stretched above 50-day · mean-reversion risk
Volume vs 20-day avg2.61× · 2.67M vs 1.02M avg
52-week range$12.94 – $45.55
Below high since 2015-0.2% · $45.55 high
Risk / reward
Plan stop$38.08
Max pain$24.00 far from the price — likely a stale options snapshot
RSI 1463.4 fires under 35 · fires near $35.42
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$45.47
$35.23 · -22.5%-22.5%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+10.3% · $50.14+10.3%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers0 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
63.4
fires under 35 · fires near $35.42
vs 50-day
$38.21
above the line · fires near $38.43
Bollinger
$38.93
no lower pierce · fires near $38.56
VWAP 20
$41.98
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $41.95
Entry level
$42.58
level below · fires near $42.97
Put wall
$40.00
OI strike below · fires near $40.16
MACD
-0.24
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
2.61×
elevated versus recent average
Short int.Static
5.3%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$2.25
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
6 Nov 2026
· in 86 days
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file
prices 15-min delayed