AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) — $149.58 −1.41%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

AERpeers & supply-chain relationships

AER fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 1.05M · Avg 1.19M
AERAerCap Holdings N.V.$149.58-1.41%Pre-market$149.70+0.08%

WAIT.

The entry isn't here — the timing triggers haven't fired.

2 of 5 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 3. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
+3net
1 bull / 0 bear factors · leaning
Bull 3 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
2 of 5 aligned — closing in
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileBalance sheet · not on filePCE sensitivity · not on fileOKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$148.83
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$158–160
center $158.81 · basis · high 52w + round · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
not on file
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
~65% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.0× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs 20-day avg0.88× · 1.05M vs 1.19M avg
52-week range$110.67 – $158.81
Below high since 2015-5.8% · $158.81 high
Risk / reward1 : 1.2
Plan stop$140.74
Max pain
RSI 1448.6 fires under 35 · fires near $138.30
Forensic flags1 review
What-if price
$149.58
$137.39 · -8.1%-8.1%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+5.4% · $157.68+5.4%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers2 of 5 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
48.6
fires under 35 · fires near $138.30
vs 50-day
$146.47
above the line · fires near $147.83
Bollinger
$145.35
no lower pierce · fires near $144.40
VWAP 20
$151.37
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$148.83
within 1% of model level
Put wall
not on file
MACD
-0.27
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.88×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
0.8%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$4.05
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
28 Oct 2026 · before the bell
bmo · in 77 days
Next dividend
1.07% yld
no ex-date on file
Appears in
prices 15-min delayed