BAE Systems plc (BAESF) — Aerospace & Defense. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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BAESF fair-value estimate

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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 17, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 22.1K · 3-mo avg 18.8K

BAE Systems plc (BAESF)

BAESFBAE Systems plcloading…
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QTick signal
+2net
1 bull / 0 bear factors · balanced
Bull 2 pts·Bear 0 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeCautionPCE inflation days · ~12% bigger swingsOKNeutral tape · 34/100 · as of 2026-09-17
Smart entry
$27.23
basis · pivot low + sma 200 · as of 2026-09-17
Target exit zone
$27.91
center $27.91 · basis · sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
not on file
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.33× the norm · 88% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.01×
52-week range$21.12 – $32.21
Below high since 2023-15.0% · $32.21 high
Risk / reward0.22 : 1
Plan stop$24.18
Max pain
RSI 1447.5 fires under 35 · fires near $24.59
Forensic flags0 clean
Earnings multiple27.4× trailing · forward not on file
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield3.1% · of market value

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price down 2.9%. Over the last 20 sessions, 41% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 5 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
47.5
fires under 35 · fires near $24.59
vs 50-day
$27.80
below the line
Bollinger
$25.27
no lower pierce · fires near $24.86
VWAP 20
$27.68
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$27.23
within 1% of model level
Put wall
not on file
MACD
Context
-0.40
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.01×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
not on file
ATRStatic
$1.53
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
2027-02-17
in 105 sessions
Next dividend
1.88% yld
no ex-date on file