AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) — Aerospace & Defense. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 1.29M · 3-mo avg 1.96M

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV)

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QTick signal
-2net
2 bull / 3 bear factors · balanced
Bull 5 pts·Bear 7 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 0/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$151.29
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$155–160
center $157.62 · basis · daily pivot + round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$14.26
9.4% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.07× the norm · 84% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (3/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.56×
52-week range$135.20 – $417.86
Below high since 2015-63.6% · $417.86 high
Risk / reward0.27 : 1
Plan stop$131.58
Max pain$152.50 options cluster
RSI 1446.2 fires under 35 · fires near $134.42
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple35.9× fwd · trailing not on file
P/E vs its own pastnot on file
Free cash flow yield-2.2% · burning cash

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price down 4.1%. Over the last 20 sessions, 46% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
46.2
fires under 35 · fires near $134.42
vs 50-day
✓
$158.68
below the line
Bollinger
●
$139.15
no lower pierce · fires near $136.83
VWAP 20
●
$150.58
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $150.49
Entry level
✓
$151.29
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$155.00
2026-09-25 expiry · chain of 2026-09-21
MACD
Context✓
+2.11
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.56×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
11.9%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$9.85
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-12-02
in 48 sessions · session not on file
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file