Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) — Specialty Retail. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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ASOpeers & supply-chain relationships

ASO fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 11:15 AM ETVol 1.34M · 3-mo avg 1.71M

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO)

ASOAcademy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+5net
4 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 6 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · Grey—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 0/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$48.89
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$52–53
center $52.28 · basis · round + sma 200 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$4.11
8.4% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Pullback risk
In line
1.21× the norm · 96% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (3/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure · price back above the 50-day — repair underway
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.60×
52-week range$41.29 – $62.45
Below high since 2020-35.1% · $75.73 high
Risk / reward0.60 : 1
Plan stop$43.92
Max pain$49.00 options cluster
RSI 1452.8 fires under 35 · fires near $41.78
Forensic flags3 review
Earnings multiple6.9× fwd · 8.2× trailing
P/E vs its own past54th pctile · 7.7× median
Free cash flow yield7.0% · of market value

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price up 2.1%. Over the last 20 sessions, 42% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
52.8
fires under 35 · fires near $41.78
vs 50-day
●
$47.68
above the line · fires near $48.10
Bollinger
●
$40.47
no lower pierce · fires near $38.98
VWAP 20
●
$48.73
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $48.68
Entry level
✓
$48.89
within 1% of model level
Put wall
✓
$49.00
2026-09-25 expiry · chain of 2026-09-21
MACD
Context●
-0.15
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.60×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
13.4%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$2.49
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-12-08
in 51 sessions
Next dividend
1.22% yld
no ex-date on file