AAON, Inc. (AAON) — Building Products & Equipment. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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AAON fair-value estimate

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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 18, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 236.2K · 3-mo avg 1.10M

AAON, Inc. (AAON)

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QTick signal
-2net
2 bull / 4 bear factors · balanced
Bull 3 pts·Bear 5 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafePCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 12/100 · as of 2026-09-18
Smart entry
$76.05
basis · low 52w + pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-17
Target exit zone
$88–90
center $89.10 · basis · sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
±$8.08
10.6% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.07× the norm · 85% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (1/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.99×
52-week range$73.19 – $150.46
Below high since 2015-49.2% · $150.46 high
Risk / reward1.97 : 1
Plan stop$69.43
Max pain$80.00 options cluster
RSI 1440.9 fires under 35 · fires near $71.68
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple21.2× fwd · 39.3× trailing
P/E vs its own past58th pctile · 49.1× median
Free cash flow yield-3.3% · burning cash

Trading in line with its own normal, price down 0.6%. Over the last 20 sessions, 53% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

4 of 6 aligned — STRIKE
RSI 14
40.9
fires under 35 · fires near $71.68
vs 50-day
$89.26
below the line
Bollinger
$73.34
no lower pierce · fires near $72.74
VWAP 20
$77.35
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$76.05
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$80.00
2026-09-18 expiry · chain of 2026-09-16
MACD
Context
+0.96
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
0.99×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
6.9%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$3.31
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
Next earnings
2026-11-05
in 35 sessions
Next dividend
0.53% yld
no ex-date on file