No overseas listings — 9434.T trades on its home exchange only.
Track record · free & ungated
We grade our price-band calls in public
Each forward price band is logged the day it's set and scored when it resolves — misses included. None have resolved yet, so there is no hit-rate to show. This builds in the open, not behind the paywall.
1
bands logged
0
resolved so far
Building
status
The calibration ledger stays free, always — a track record can't sit behind a paywall.
Price action
Price & quote
Live quote refreshed every 15 minutes against the full daily snapshot.
The readUnder pressurefact
Where the price sits inside today's range and its 52-week range, plus how it's performed over time. This is the raw quote — the same number everywhere, just faster.
◆ Golden cross forming◇ Broadening range50- and 200-day averages are converging — watch for a regime flip.
Drag or arrow-key the chart for daily OHLCV · 126 sessions through Aug 10, 2026 · prev close $230.90 (dashed)
Open●
$229.60
Prev close●
$230.90
Volume●
61.62M
avg 81.46M
Rel. volume◐
0.76×
below normal
Market cap●
$10.93T
Shares out●
47.80B
float 28.41B
Day range
$227.60$230.80
52-week range ◐
$202.60$247.90
-7.9% from high+12.7% above low
The QTick signal
QTick proprietary signal
A transparent point tally — bull evidence minus bear evidence — read over ~30 days. Faster factors time the swing; slower ones (quality, 13F, forensics) weigh in as longer-horizon context. A model-based prior, not advice.
~30-day swing read · graded vs S&Puncalibrated prior · track record buildingstrength is the tally magnitude, not a probability
-4
net · leaning
0 bull / 1 bear factors
Factor breakdown 8 factors · signed points sum to net -4●
Analyst moves90d—
Earnings4 quarters—
Insider flow120d—
Estimate revisionsWeeks—
Sentiment1–30d—
Longer-horizon context weighs the read · not a 30-day timing call
Institutional (13F)Latest 13F—
Quality / valueTTM-4 pts
weak Piotroski F-score (2/7)
Filing forensicsLatest FY—
Risk flagsDaily—
Net tally
-4
0 bull − 4 bear
Factors agreeing
0↑ 1↓
of 9 tracked
Read strength
leaning
30d horizon
Strongest factor
Quality / value
-4 pts
Model
QTick Engine
9434.T track record
Building
0 of 1 resolved
Forensic flags filing red flags · backtested edge where shown●
No filing red flags in the latest fiscal year.
Territory — competitor / supplier graph ●
VZPeer+0.2%
TMUSPeer+0.6%
DTEGYPeer-2.8%
DTEGFPeer+0.8%
TPeer+1.1%
-4 net
leaning
0 bull / 1 bear factors
Red-Flag X-Ray
Accounting quality · red-flag scan
One integrity score (0–100) from a set of accounting checks that look for red flags. Higher is safer — and we show the checks it passed, not just the ones it failed.
How we test · 7 forensic testsA clear result ships as openly as a flag — and the tests that don't fire are published in full. No survivorship bias.
Share dilution / SBC creepFires when shares outstanding rise materially or stock-based comp outpaces buybacks.
Distress (Altman-Z, negative equity)Fires on balance-sheet fragility. For banks we substitute regulatory capital (CET1).
Margin trajectoryFires on multi-quarter gross / operating margin erosion.
Going-concern languageNLP scan of filings for material-doubt or going-concern wording.
Filing timelinessFires on late / NT (non-timely) filings and restatements.
Insider selling into strengthFires on discretionary insider sells during price strength; 10b5-1 plans down-weighted.
Analyst-downgrade momentumFires on clusters of net downgrades and target cuts.
Odds & pullback risk
Setup & odds
Which way the next move is more likely to go — and how overstretched the price looks right now.
The read—where it sitsuncalibrated prior · not a forecast
How the likely upside compares with the downside, and how stretched the price is — odds, not timing.
Upside vs downside · 12m ◐
Upside/downside split not available
Expected move · 1wk◐±—
Upside target◐— level, not a call
Invalidation / stop◐— level, not a call
Reward : risk◐—
BullA decisive close above the target opens continuation.
BaseChop between stop and target into the next catalyst.
BearA break of the invalidation level invalidates the setup.
Pullback risk · experimental ◐
LowElevatedHigh
Pullback base rate 74% over 63 trading days (n=204,962).
74%saw a ≥10% pullback within 63dn=204,962 · observational
Resolved up vs down · 63d◐50% up · 50% down same historical group as the pullback read · 204,962 cases · flat outcomes count on neither side — a historical rate, not a call
Conditioned on◐ANY · ANY vol · ANY momentum the past setups matched against this one
↳ In detail
How to read the odds
This is a historical rate, and an experimental one: across 25 years, stocks in the same state — same segment, same price phase, same volatility, same momentum — pulled back this often. The record is built from today's list of companies, so names that delisted along the way are missing and each stock's current segment is projected backward; the rates lean toward survivors until that rebuild lands. Compare the multiple against the segment rather than the bare percentage — recent years run higher than the full 25-year record. None of it predicts timing.
Trend & technical structure
Trend & technicals
The price chart's vital signs, in plain English. Expand any row for what it actually means for you.
The read—where it sitsmoving-average posture · fact
Moving averages describe the direction; RSI and the bands describe how stretched the move is. Neither predicts the next one.
Average prices (the trend)
Price vs 200-day●—
Momentum, bands & levels
↳ In detail
The simple version
When price sits aboveits averages with momentum rising, the trend is healthy. When RSI is near the extremes or the price looks "stretched," the move is overdone and often takes a breather. Think of these as a weather report — conditions, not instructions.
Pattern outcomes
Coverage
Data not available.
Momentum & performance
Momentum / performance
Trailing returns and relative strength versus the benchmark.
The read—where it sitsRS percentile vs market
How the stock has returned, and whether it's beating the market. A strong run shows recent leadership — leadership reverses without warning.
Trailing returns
1-month◐+8.0%
3-month◐+2.5%
6-month◐+6.7%
Year-to-date◐+5.6%
1-year◐+6.4%
12-1 momentum◐—
Relative strength vs S&P 500
—
RS-rank percentile vs market
laggingleading
Relative strength line (β-adj)◐—
↳ In detail
What relative strength tells you
Relative strength compares 9434.T's return to the market — high and rising RS is the single most persistent momentum factor. No RS-rank is available for this name yet.
Risk
Volatility & drawdown
Data not available.
Failure modes
Coverage
Data not available — failure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far
Macro sensitivity · derived analysis
How rates push this name
Derived · rates & regime
The 10-year yield is public. Its measured pull on this specific stock — and how it trades around the macro calendar — is the derived layer.
The readFalls with rateswhere it sitshow it moved when rates moved · extremes trimmed
How much this stock actually moves when interest rates move, and how it behaves around big economic releases.
Sensitivity to 10Y yield ●
Per +1% in the 10Y yield-337.2%
−120+12
Rates are a Falls with rates for this name
Observations●466 rolling window
Fit · r²●n/a
Measured across 466 daily moves against the 10-year Treasury yield (FRED DGS10). Where the company-level link is weak or the sample is short, we fall back to the sector average rather than print a number we don't trust.
Behaviour around the macro calendar ●
CPI · vs a typical dayn=00.0×
FOMC · vs a typical dayn=00.0×
NFP · vs a typical dayn=00.0×
PCE · vs a typical dayn=00.0×
× = how much more this stock moves on each release day vs a normal day. Amber = outsized (≥1.4×). Context, not a directional call.
Volatility regime ◔
The volatility engine runs on market-wide risk channels, not on individual names, so there is no 1-year volatility percentile for this symbol. The realized-volatility and drawdown reads in the risk section are the per-name measures.
Valuation
Valuation
Is the stock cheap or expensive? Each multiple is graded and explained in plain English.
The readLeans cheapwhere it sitsagainst its own 5-year range where we have it · standard bands otherwise
Price against earnings, sales, book value and cash flow. We mark the measures that don't apply rather than fake them.
What you pay for earnings
P/E (trailing)●Price ÷ last 12 months of profit; graded vs own 5y history when covered20.3×Fair
Forward P/E●Price ÷ next year's expected profit19.7×Fair
PEG ratio◐Valuation set against expected growth — lower can look cheaper, but one cutoff is not a verdictn/an/a
Earnings yield◔Profit as a % of price, like a bond yield4.93%Fair
Earnings yield − risk-free●Earnings yield minus the government-bond yield at the same daten/an/a
Dividend yield●Annual indicated cash dividend as a % of price3.85%Income
What you pay for the business
Price / Sales●Price ÷ annual revenue; graded vs own 5y history when covered1.6×Cheap
Price / Book◔Price ÷ net assets on the books3.69×Fair
EV / EBITDA◔Whole-company value ÷ operating cash earnings15.4×Fair
EV / FCF◔Whole-company value ÷ positive free cash flown/an/a
FCF yield◔Free cash flow as a % of market valuen/an/a
P/E vs own 5y●Five-year median not on filen/aFair
P/S vs own 5y●Five-year median not on filen/aCheap
Peers today territory performance, for valuation context
VZPeer+0.2%
TMUSPeer+0.6%
DTEGYPeer-2.8%
DTEGFPeer+0.8%
TPeer+1.1%
Fundamentals & quality
Fundamentals / quality
How good is the underlying business? Scale, profitability and balance-sheet strength, graded.
The readPartial fundamentals readwhere it sitsreturn on capital vs its estimated cost of funding
Scale, profitability and balance sheet, with industrial return on capital compared directly with its estimated funding cost.
Scale & growth
Revenue · TTM◔Total sales over the last 12 months—Scale
EPS · TTM◔Profit earned per share—Profit
Net margin◔Cents of profit kept per $1 of sales7.8%Weak
Revenue growth◔Sales vs a year ago+7.6%OK
EPS growth◔Profit-per-share vs a year ago+4.0%Weak
Margin trajectory◔Are profit margins widening or shrinking?n/an/a
Returns & balance sheet
ROE◔Profit generated on shareholders' equity18.6%Strong
ROIC●After-tax operating profit earned on the capital the business uses10.7%n/a
WACC●Estimated blended cost of debt and equityn/an/a
ROIC − WACC●Return on capital above or below its funding costn/an/a
Incremental ROIC · ~3y●What the last three years of new investment has actually earned+0.6%Return
Gross / Op margin◔Profitability before & after operating costs48% / 15%OK
Free cash flow◔Cash left after running & investingn/an/a
Cash self-funding◔Self-funding on trailing free cash flow, or months of cash left at the current burnn/an/a
Debt / Equity◔Gross borrowings vs equity — negative book equity is not gradeable2.19Weak
Current ratio◔Can it cover near-term bills? Over 1.5 is healthy0.63Weak
Last filed 2026-08-11
Inventory ledger
The stockroom
Data not available.
Segments & geography
Where the revenue lives
Data not available.
Credit & safety · derived analysis
Distance from insolvency
Derived · distance from default
Not the debt total — how far this company's asset value could fall before its debts get hard to cover, and how that distance ranks against its peers.
The readSolventwhere it sitspercentile vs solvency universe
How far the company sits from real financial distress, plus how it ranks against peers — more than a debt total tells you.
99.90%12-month survival read
empirical historical lookup · not a rating
9.78
σ to default
0.10%model-implied probability of default ●
Filing-forensics flags
0/4
SafeGreyDistress
Model-implied, not a credit rating.It estimates how far the company's assets would have to fall before it couldn't cover its debts, using a standard model (Merton). Higher is safer. (risk-free rate n/a, one-year horizon, asset volatility from —)
Structural snapshot as of 2026-08-11
Distance-to-default band ●
distress · 0cautionsafe8σ+
Debt-service capacity
Interest coverage●n/a operating income / absolute interest expense
Long-term debt / assets●n/a as filed; distinct from Merton D/V
↳ In detail
How to read these two ratios
The credit engine uses the same stored thresholds shown here: coverage at or below 1× cannot cover interest, while 8× or more is its comfortable band; long-term debt at 10% of assets or less is its light band, while 60% or more is its heavy band. Missing XBRL tags stay n/a.
Altman solvency ●
Altman Z-Score●0.9 Distress
↳ In detail
Why a percentile, not a number
The absolute Z-Score is shown whenever its filing inputs exist. The cross-sectional percentile is a separate field and stays n/a until a current universe rank is on file.
Forensic accounting ●
CleanNo validated forensic-accounting flags fired for this snapshot.
Dilution radar · derived analysis
Are your shares being diluted?
Derived · ownership erosion
Raw share count is everywhere. The consequence — how fast the count is growing and where that ranks against peers — is the read that matters.
The read—where it sitsdilution percentile vs peers
How fast the share count is changing versus peers, with stock compensation, issuance and repurchases shown separately when covered.
5-year share-count CAGR ●
The CAGR needs annual filings roughly five years apart that both carry a share count. This name's filing history on file does not span that window, so no rate is published — the buyback and stock-comp rows below are measured independently and still hold.
Most-dilutive percentile vs peers
LeastMedianMost
0percentile100
Peer percentile●40th below median
Stock comp / revenue◔n/a not covered
Stock comp / OCF◔operating cash flown/a not covered
Gross buyback yield●n/a TTM repurchases / market value
Net buyback yield●n/a TTM repurchases minus issuance / market value
Indexing needs an unbroken run of annual share counts across the same five-year window the CAGR uses. Where a year is missing — or the reported counts switch share class mid-series — the chart is withheld rather than drawn across the gap.
Analyst & estimates
The Street
Data not available.
Earnings bias · derived analysis
How this name behaves into the print
Earnings habit
The street's consensus-surprise habit — whether estimates run conservative or aggressive against what the company reports, not management's own guidance — the beat streak graded against names with the same profile, and what the tape does on good news.
The readMixed habitwhere it sitsvalidated base rates · graded out-of-time
Whether the street sandbags this name, how often a beat streak like this persists (with its sample size), and what the tape does with good news.
62%of names with this beat profile beat againn=126,782 · observational
Consensus habit · trailing 8 quarters
Consensus-surprise habit●not management guidanceinsufficient surprise history
insufficient history (n=0 < 4)
62%of names that had this beat profile went on to beat again (cohort record, not this stock alone)n=126,782 · observational
insufficient history for a bucket — pooled base rate
Post-earnings tape●— no measured announcement reactions on file yet
Earnings-day move · typical●— needs ≥8 measured prints
Implied vs realized move●— insufficient options history
↳ In detail
How to read the habit
This is a historical rate: among companies with the same recent beat record, that share beat again. It was checked on later periods than the ones it learned from, and against the plain long-run average. It describes the group, not this specific report.
Ownership & positioning
Ownership
Who holds it, how options lean, and the most recent insider, congressional and 13F transactions.
The read—where it sitspositioning band · not a vote
Who owns it and what insiders and big funds are doing. Steady buying reads positive; heavy selling reads cautious.
Holders
Institutional●22.5%
Insider●39.9%
Institutional flow●—
Fund concentration●—
Activist stake●not on file
Insider & short
Insider 90d net●—
10b5-1 vs discretionary◔scheduledMostly programmatic
9434.T is -1.1% behind the peer average (-0.02%). Divergence from the group is where the stock-specific signal lives.
Supply map how the territory wires together●
suppliercustomercompetitor
Customer momentum
The customer chain
Data not available.
News & social
The story
Data not available.
What this name did from here
Time machine
Each look-back point: the price then, the move to today, and what was going on — earnings, corporate events, news flow.
The readLower than a year agofact
The price at each look-back point and the move to today, with what was happening at the time — the per-ticker face of the track record.
Look-backs · vs the $228.40 close of 2026-08-10
3 months ago●$220.40 +3.6% to today
6 months ago●$212.20 +7.6% to today
1 year ago●$234.40 -2.6% to today
3 years ago●$160.85 +42.0% to today
history starts 2023-06-01
↳ In detail
Why we show the rear-view mirror
Every number on this page gets graded by what happens next. The time machine is the same idea pointed backwards: the state of this name at each past date and the move that followed, for any symbol — not a curated highlight reel.
Risk case · derived analysis
The risk case
The case against
What can break: how hard this name has fallen before, a sensible position cap, whether it behaves like a lottery ticket, how much cash it has left, how it drifts after earnings, whether the dividend holds, and what changed in the filings — plus a crowding read when its three inputs agree.
The readCoverage incompletewhere it sitsan experimental model estimate · the history-based reads below are graded separately
The case against the stock: how hard it has fallen before, how much cash it has left, how it behaves after earnings, whether the dividend holds, what changed in the filings, and how crowded the trade is.
Avoid score · v2.1 isotonic model · experimental
No nightly risk snapshot on file for this name.
Max defensible position size
Position sizing needs this name's volatility bucket and momentum direction, which are not on file.
Lottery profile
No cohort reference sample on file for this name's size segment.
Cash runway
The fundamentals on file are too incomplete to compute a runway.
Post-earnings drift
No measured first-day earnings reaction on file, so drift cannot be graded.
Dividend reliability · evidence incomplete
Dividend yield●4.09% profile value · percentage points
The calibration stores historical within-period yield-tercile cells but not the mapping for today's yield, so no cut or suspension probability is published.
Filing restatements
No material restatement on file in the trailing 2 years.
Calibration scorecard
Auditable track record
Every rating we publish is fingerprinted, tracked, and resolved in public. Here's how we've actually done.
1
calls logged track record builds as calls resolve (0/8)