No overseas listings — XHB trades on its home exchange only.
Track record · free & ungated
We grade our price-band calls in public
Each forward price band is logged the day it's set and scored when it resolves — misses included. None are due yet, so there's no hit-rate to show: this builds in the open, not behind the paywall.
2
bands logged
0
resolved so far
Building
status
The calibration ledger stays free, always — a track record can't sit behind a paywall.
Price action
Price & quote
Live quote refreshed every 15 minutes against the full daily snapshot.
The readHolding bidfact
Where the price sits inside today's range and its 52-week range, plus how it's performed over time. This is the raw quote — the same number everywhere, just faster.
Tap & drag the chart for daily OHLCV · 0 sessions · prev close $106.69 (dashed)
Open●
$106.84
Prev close●
$106.69
Volume●
2.21M
avg 2.68M
Rel. volume◐
0.82×
below normal
Market cap●
—
Shares out●
—
float —
Day range
$106.42$109.60
52-week range ◐
$93.57$123.13
-11.9% from high+15.9% above low
The QTick signal
QTick proprietary signal
A transparent point tally — bull evidence minus bear evidence — read over ~30 days. Faster factors time the swing; slower ones (quality, 13F, forensics) weigh in as longer-horizon context. A model-based prior, not advice.
~30-day swing read · graded vs S&Puncalibrated prior · track record buildingstrength is the tally magnitude, not a probability
0 bull / 0 bear factors
0
net · balanced
Factor breakdown 8 factors · signed points sum to net 0●
Analyst moves90d—
Earnings4 quarters—
Insider flow120d—
Estimate revisionsWeeks—
Sentiment1–30d—
Longer-horizon context weighs the read · not a 30-day timing call
Institutional (13F)Latest 13F—
Quality / valueTTM—
Filing forensicsLatest FY—
Risk flagsDaily—
Net tally
0
0 bull − 0 bear
Factors agreeing
0↑ 0↓
of 9 tracked
Read strength
balanced
30d horizon
Strongest factor
—
no scored factor
Model
QTick Engine
XHB track record
Building
0 of 2 resolved
Forensic flags filing red flags · backtested edge where shown●
No filing red flags in the latest fiscal year.
Territory — competitor / supplier graph ●
Section readQTICK net read
n/a
0 bull / 0 bear factors
uncalibrated prior · not a forecast
Our overall read, built from every factor above and shown with the full breakdown.
Red-Flag X-Ray
Accounting quality · red-flag scan
One integrity score (0–100) from a set of accounting checks that look for red flags. Higher is safer — and we show the checks it passed, not just the ones it failed.
How we test · 7 forensic testsA clear result ships as openly as a flag — and the tests that don't fire are published in full. No survivorship bias.
Share dilution / SBC creepFires when shares outstanding rise materially or stock-based comp outpaces buybacks.
Distress (Altman-Z, negative equity)Fires on balance-sheet fragility. For banks we substitute regulatory capital (CET1).
Margin trajectoryFires on multi-quarter gross / operating margin erosion.
Going-concern languageNLP scan of filings for material-doubt or going-concern wording.
Filing timelinessFires on late / NT (non-timely) filings and restatements.
Insider selling into strengthFires on discretionary insider sells during price strength; 10b5-1 plans down-weighted.
Analyst-downgrade momentumFires on clusters of net downgrades and target cuts.
Section readRed-Flag X-Ray
A
integrity 0–100 · 7-test battery
One integrity score (0–100) from a set of accounting checks. 80+ is clean; a 'watch' item is minor; a 'critical' flag is serious.
Odds & pullback risk
Setup & odds
Which way the next move is more likely to go — and how overstretched the price looks right now.
The read—where it sitsuncalibrated prior · not a forecast
How the likely upside compares with the downside, and how stretched the price is — odds, not timing.
Upside vs downside · 12m ◐
Upside/downside split not available
Expected move · 1wk◐±—
Upside target◐— level, not a call
Invalidation / stop◐— level, not a call
Reward : risk◐—
BullA decisive close above the target opens continuation.
BaseChop between stop and target into the next catalyst.
BearA break of the invalidation level invalidates the setup.
Pullback risk ◐
LowElevatedHigh
Pullback base rate 74% over 63 trading days (n=201,368).
74%saw a ≥10% pullback within 63dn=201,368 · observational
Resolved up vs down · 63d◐50% up · 50% down same cell as the pullback read · n=201,368 · flat outcomes fall in neither leg — a base rate, not a call
Conditioned on◐ANY · ANY vol · ANY momentum the matched historical cell
tape state: neutral
↳ In detail
How to read the odds
This is an empirical base rate: across 25 years of point-in-time history, stocks in this same state (segment, tape phase, volatility, momentum) pulled back this often. The multiple against the segment norm is the comparable number — recent-era levels run hot versus the long grid, so weight the multiple over the bare %. It doesn't predict timing.
The structure under the price ●
Bottom confirmation●3 of 6 signs in find-bottom score 28/100 — pinned to 0 until the checklist clears
Capitulation flush, then quiet●not yet
Selling volume dried up●in
A higher low printed●in
Back above the 20-day line●not yet
Momentum diverging up●not yet
Heaviest volume on an up day●in
85%of confirmed bottoming reads still saw a ≥10% drawdown inside the next quarter (25-year study) — confirmation marks a turn forming, not safety.n=1,203 · observational
Trend & technical structure
Trend & technicals
The price chart's vital signs, in plain English. Expand any row for what it actually means for you.
The read—where it sitsmoving-average posture · fact
Moving averages set the direction; RSI and the bands tell you whether the move has gone too far.
Average prices (the trend)
Price vs 200-day●—
Momentum, bands & levels
↳ In detail
The simple version
When price sits aboveits averages with momentum rising, the trend is healthy. When RSI is near the extremes or the price looks "stretched," the move is overdone and often takes a breather. Think of these as a weather report — conditions, not instructions.
Pattern outcomes
QTick
Data not available.
Momentum & performance
Momentum / performance
Trailing returns and relative strength versus the benchmark.
The read—where it sitsRS percentile vs market
How the stock has returned, and whether it's beating the market. Strong, rising momentum tends to persist.
Trailing returns
1-month◐-6.5%
3-month◐0.0%
6-month◐-2.9%
Year-to-date◐+3.7%
1-year◐+2.7%
12-1 momentum◐—
Relative strength vs S&P 500
—
RS-rank percentile vs market
laggingleading
Relative strength line (β-adj)◐—
↳ In detail
What relative strength tells you
Relative strength compares XHB's return to the market — high and rising RS is the single most persistent momentum factor. No RS-rank is available for this name yet.
Risk profile
Risk
Volatility and sensitivity, regressed against SPY from adjusted bars — then the landmine check: what could actually go wrong here.
The readLow drawdown riskwhere it sitsvs the ADV-Q5 mega segment base rate · observational
Beta is how much it moves with the market; volatility and the worst drop show how rough the ride has been. Size positions to these.
4.9%6-month large-drawdown risk vs 9.3% for its segment
Low drawdown riskNames like this hit a large drawdown within 6 months at 0.5× the rate of the ADV-Q5 mega segment — observational, never a sell.
Beta · 1-year◐
—
Beta · 3-year◐
—
Realized vol · 30d◐
32.7%
annualized
Max drawdown · 1y●
—
The drawdown read · 6-month, segment-graded
Where it sits0.5×
LowHigh
vs the ADV-Q5 mega segment base rate · observational
4.9%6-month large-drawdown risk, vs 9.3% for its segment
Log price (level)●4.68 driver
6-month total return●-0.05 driver
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this ADV-Q5 mega segment: 9.3%. This name reads 0.5× that base rate.
Tape state & tail · nightly, adjusted bars
Neutral tape0/100
SettledKnifing
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
↳ In detail
Reading risk
Realized vol of 33% frame how much patience a position needs. The drawdown band above is observational — a risk sort against names of the same segment, blind to balance-sheet failures that never showed in the price.
Failure modes
QTick
Data not available.
ProMacro sensitivity · derived analysisunlocked
How rates push this name
Derived · rates & regime
The 10-year yield is public. Its measured pull on this specific stock — and how it trades around the macro calendar — is the derived layer.
The readFalls with rateswhere it sitsrate-beta · winsorized
How much this stock actually moves when interest rates move, and how it behaves around big economic releases.
Sensitivity to 10Y yield ●
Per +1% in the 10Y yield-106.8%
−120+12
Rates are a Falls with rates for this name
Observations●501 rolling window
Fit · r²●n/a
OLS of daily returns on changes in FRED DGS10 over 501 observations. Low-confidence betas (short N or weak r²) defer to a sector prior rather than print a spurious number.
Behaviour around the macro calendar ●
CPI · vs a typical dayn=00.0×
FOMC · vs a typical dayn=00.0×
NFP · vs a typical dayn=00.0×
PCE · vs a typical dayn=00.0×
× = how much more this stock moves on each release day vs a normal day. Amber = outsized (≥1.4×). Context, not a directional call.
Volatility regime ◔
Vol percentile · 1y◔n/a
Valuation
Valuation
Is the stock cheap or expensive? Each multiple is graded and explained in plain English.
The readBalanced valuationwhere it sitsown-history bands where covered · absolute bands otherwise
Price against earnings, sales, book value and cash flow. We mark the measures that don't apply rather than fake them.
What you pay for earnings
P/E (trailing)●Price ÷ last 12 months of profit; graded vs own 5y history when covered19.4×Fair
Forward P/E●Price ÷ next year's expected profitn/an/a
PEG ratio◐P/E adjusted for growth — under 1 is cheapn/an/a
Earnings yield◔Profit as a % of price, like a bond yield5.16%Fair
Earnings yield − risk-free●Earnings yield minus the contemporaneous risk-free raten/an/a
Dividend yield●Dividend-rate data not on filen/an/a
What you pay for the business
Price / Sales●Price ÷ annual revenue; graded vs own 5y history when coveredn/an/a
Price / Book◔Price ÷ net assets on the booksn/an/a
EV / EBITDA◔Whole-company value ÷ operating cash earningsn/an/a
EV / FCF◔Whole-company value ÷ positive free cash flown/an/a
FCF yield◔Free cash flow as a % of market valuen/an/a
P/E vs own 5y●Five-year median not on filen/aFair
P/S vs own 5y●Five-year median not on filen/an/a
EV/EBITDA and P/FCF need positive operating cash earnings to mean anything (and don't apply to banks, where leverage is the product) — so we mark them n/a rather than print a misleading number.
Peers today territory performance, for valuation context
Section readValuation
Balanced valuation
own-history bands where covered · absolute bands otherwise
Price against earnings, sales, book value and cash flow. We mark the measures that don't apply rather than fake them.
Fundamentals
The business
Data not available.
Credit & safety
QTick
Data not available.
Dilution radar
QTick
Data not available.
Analyst & estimates
The Street
Data not available.
ProEarnings bias · derived analysisunlocked
How this name behaves into the print
Earnings habit
The street's consensus-surprise habit — whether estimates run conservative or aggressive against what the company reports, not management's own guidance — the beat streak graded against names with the same profile, and what the tape does on good news.
The readMixed habitwhere it sitsvalidated base rates · graded out-of-time
Whether the street sandbags this name, how often a beat streak like this persists (with its sample size), and what the tape does with good news.
62%of names with this beat profile beat againn=122,209 · observational
Consensus habit · trailing 8 quarters
Consensus-surprise habit●not management guidanceinsufficient surprise history
insufficient history (n=0 < 4)
62%of names that had this beat profile went on to beat again (cohort record, not this stock alone)n=122,209 · observational
insufficient history for a bucket — pooled base rate
Post-earnings tape●— no measured announcement reactions on file yet
Implied vs realized move●— insufficient options history
↳ In detail
How to read the habit
The beat probability is an empirical base rate — names with this trailing profile beat again that share of the time, graded out-of-time against climatology. It is a cohort fact, not a forecast of this specific print.
Smart money & positioning
Smart money
Who holds it, how options lean, and the most recent insider, congressional and 13F transactions.
The read—where it sitspositioning band · not a vote
Who owns it and what insiders and big funds are doing. Steady buying reads positive; heavy selling reads cautious.
Holders
Institutional●—
Insider●—
Institutional flow●—
Fund concentration●—
Activist stake●not on file
Insider & short
Insider 90d net●—
10b5-1 vs discretionary◔scheduledMostly programmatic
Model and base-rate evidence for avoid risk, position size, lottery profile, cash runway, event drift, dividend reliability and filing revisions — plus a live crowding descriptor when its three inputs agree.
The readCoverage incompletewhere it sitsmodel estimate plus calibrated base-rate surfaces
The measured case against the stock: model risk, position cap, lottery profile, runway, event drift, dividend evidence, filing revisions and crowding when covered.
Dividend yield●0.68% profile value · percentage points
The calibration stores historical within-period yield-tercile cells but not the mapping for today's yield, so no cut or suspension probability is published.
Filing restatements
no_restatements_in_lookback
Calibration scorecard
Auditable track record
Every rating we publish is fingerprinted, tracked, and resolved in public. Here's how we've actually done.
2
calls logged track record builds as calls resolve (0/8)
Resolved●
0
awaiting first results
Open calls●
2
tracked, unresolved
XHB track record●
building
published once resolved
Section readTrack record
Building
Our public hit-rate, misses included — a track record only means something if it can't be cherry-picked.
State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) Stock Price & Signals · Deep dive · QTick