Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) — Engineering & Construction. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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STRL fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 375.4K · 3-mo avg 762.6K

Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL)

STRLSterling Infrastructure, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+2net
2 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 4 pts·Bear 2 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 0/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$509.73
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$531–544
center $537.45 · basis · bb upper + sma 200 + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$44.93
8.8% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 5% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Pullback risk
In line
1.23× the norm · 81% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (4/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · but price is 5% below the 50-day — structure damaged
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.68×
52-week range$281.58 – $1,005.68
Below high since 2015-49.1% · $1,005.68 high
Risk / reward0.45 : 1
Plan stop$455.90
Max pain$510.00 options cluster
RSI 1449.9 fires under 35 · fires near $427.85
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple20.0× fwd · 36.7× trailing
P/E vs its own past90th pctile · 20.1× median
Free cash flow yield2.3% · of market value

Last session traded lighter than its own normal, price down 0.3%. Over the last 20 sessions, 44% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
49.9
fires under 35 · fires near $427.85
vs 50-day
✓
$539.10
below the line
Bollinger
●
$446.04
no lower pierce · fires near $438.12
VWAP 20
●
$488.99
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $488.90
Entry level
✓
$509.73
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$410.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-24
MACD
Context✓
+8.22
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
0.68×
lighter than its own normal
Short int.Static
4.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$25.03
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-02
in 27 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file