Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

How we compute this

PARR fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 10, 2026 · 1:32 PM ETVol 264.7K · 3-mo avg 975.0K

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR)

PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+5net
3 bull / 2 bear factors · leaning
Bull 8 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—Inflation-report days · not on fileCautionHeavy selling · sharp-drop risk 61/100 · Nov 9
$68.27
near a recent low, a support level and the 200-day average · Nov 9 · price is already 2.3% below it
$79–82
near the 50-day average and the 50-day average trade price · midpoint $80.37 · Nov 9
±$6.49
±9.7% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 17% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
In line
95% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (1/6 bottoming checks met)
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 17% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
Trading volume46% above normal1.46× its 20-day average
Past year's range$33.83 – $89.45lowest to highest price
From its peak24.4% belowpeak $90.74, highest since 2015
Gain vs. risk1.29 to 1$1.29 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$58.92the setup is broken under this price
Momentum (RSI)35.9fires under 35 · fires near $65.84
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit5.8× next year5.1× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 59%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 4.4×
Cash it generates6.8%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal. Over the last 20 sessions, 77% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 5 aligned — STRIKE
RSI 14
●
35.9
fires under 35 · fires near $65.84
vs 50-day
✓
$80.54
below the line
Bollinger
●
$64.01
no lower pierce · fires near $63.21
VWAP 20
✓
$76.84
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$68.27
below the model level
Put wall
●
—
not on file
MACD
Context✓
+0.15
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
1.46×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
8.4%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$4.67
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 3 of 5 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
Next earnings
2027-02-23
in 70 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file