Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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PARR fair-value estimate

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Qtick
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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 1:41 PM ETVol 790.4K · 3-mo avg 1.00M

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR)

PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
+5net
4 bull / 1 bear factors · leaning
Bull 6 pts·Bear 1 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · Safe—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 32/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$77.07
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$78–80
center $79.36 · basis · daily pivot + round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$6.64
8.6% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.07× the norm · 84% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (1/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.80×
52-week range$33.21 – $87.72
Below high since 2015-11.7% · $87.72 high
Risk / reward0.21 : 1
Plan stop$68.25
Max pain$50.00 options cluster
RSI 1444.7 fires under 35 · fires near $71.15
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple5.4× fwd · 4.4× trailing
P/E vs its own past82nd pctile · 4.2× median
Free cash flow yield7.9% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 0.9%. Over the last 20 sessions, 41% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
44.7
fires under 35 · fires near $71.15
vs 50-day
✓
$79.22
below the line
Bollinger
●
$76.06
no lower pierce · fires near $75.60
VWAP 20
✓
$81.60
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$77.07
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$70.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-25
MACD
Context●
-1.16
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.80×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
9.4%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$4.41
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-03
in 27 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file
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