Deep dive · ASE: ORLA
Orla Mining Ltd stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Orla Mining Ltd. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tape
No overseas listings — ORLA trades on its home exchange only.
The bottom linestart here
Valuation
5.3× forward
1st of its own five-year range
5yr median 59×
FCF yield 21.36%
FCF yield 21.36%
Dividend
0.64%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 3 clear
worst drawdown -2%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
ASE · USDGold Mining
$9.44+0.50 · +5.59%CLOSED · vol 3.21M
52-week range↑ 12% off low · ↓ 57.1% off high
$8.43now $9.44$21.98
Quote Jul 30, 2026 · 4:00 PM ET
Tape 2026-07-31
Tape 2026-07-31
01Ratios · Jun 23, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 2.6 against a 3.0 safe threshold, and 3 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
2.59GREY ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJun 23, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)THIN
2.9σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
0.83%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreCRITICAL
F 3/9
Piotroski F-score 3 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills1.08×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.56
Net cashcash on hand in excess of every borrowing$54.52M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
73rd pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
70 / 100
1 critical · 1 watch · 3 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCLEARZ 3.05Altman-Z in the Safe · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationWATCHM 4.66M-score elevated · revenue more than doubled in the year · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.51long-term debt 0.51× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityCRITICALF 3/9Piotroski F-score 3 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsCLEAR0 flagsno filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 3 clear and 1 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 26, 2026GOOD · 74/100
Business quality
10% net margin, 16% return on equity, +208% revenue growth, and capital earning 82% against a 12% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
74 / 100GOOD
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 26, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
10.1%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
53.2%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
43.5%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
16.3%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
70.2pp
Earns 82% on invested capital that costs about 12%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
211.2%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-7.3%
3 months-29.0%
6 months-37.4%
Year to date-28.4%
1 year+1.3%
Revenue growth (YoY)FAST
+207.6%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)IN LINE
+11.1%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
Around earningsMar 19, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
53%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 3–4 OF THE LAST 8
3 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Beat and still fellSHARE OF ALL PRINTS
8%
Of every report in the window, this share both beat consensus and closed lower on the day.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±3.8%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus bias0.86× COHORT
Persistent
misses more often than it beats, by small margins
Dividends & income
Dividend yieldforward annual
0.64%
The cash return the payment alone provides at today's price.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 26, 2026
Downtrend · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,264,444
21d48%0.0%596,577
63d47%-0.6%187,417
slope -0.21 over 40 bars
Dragonfly doji · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d36%0.0%507,560
21d40%0.0%237,486
63d44%0.0%73,638
long lower shadow, open=close near high
Bearish harami · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%0.0%190,899
21d47%0.0%89,513
63d47%-0.5%28,277
small body inside prior bullish
Harami cross
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%0.0%234,204
21d47%0.0%109,893
63d47%-0.2%34,646
doji inside prior body
Bollinger squeeze
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d43%0.0%764,373
21d45%0.0%357,385
63d47%0.0%112,620
bands at a multi-month tight — breakout pending
031ST OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $9.44, 5.3× forward earnings, RSI 44.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Momentum (RSI-14)
44COOL
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-07-29 → 2026-07-31
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 5.59% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
MACDABOVE SIGNAL
+0.09
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Pivots (classic)R1 $9 · S1 $9
$9.44
The last settled session's range projected forward. Reference levels, not predictions — after a big gap they can sit on the wrong side of the price until the next close.
DeMark countdownUP SETUP
1 of 9
Counts consecutive closes against the prior trend. A completed 9 often marks exhaustion.
2026-09-29 · in 3 daysJob Openings (JOLTS)A scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
In line1.00× segment rate · n=80,992
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 79% of cases (n=80,992).
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
2.67pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareCASH BACKING
$0.16
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months5.3×5yr median 59×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported13.1×1st of its 5yr range
PEG ratioP/E divided by growth; near 1 reads fair for the growth0.04
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit3.0×5yr median 6.4×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets4.9×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay6.9×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off4.6×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value21.36%
1 of the 8 priced multiples above sits in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timing
Data unavailableThis security is delisted, so there is no live tape to compose entry, target and stop against.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL -2
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 77%.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
-2BALANCED · 30d
0 bull / 1 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
-2
weak Piotroski F-score (3/9)
Signal
0 bull / 1 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to -2 over 30d, a balanced reading. 1 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Institutional ownershipINSTITUTIONALLY HELD
76.9%
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
11.8%
The share held by the people running the company.
Free float79% OF SHARES
267.61M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)75th PCTILE
$31.96M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Funds entering / exitingNET -4
+20 / −24
Institutions opening a first position against those closing out entirely, at the latest filings.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved on Sep 25, 2026NONE
+5.59%
ORLA rose +5.59% since the last close — no identified catalyst in our coverage.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0510 graded calls
Risk & track record
a -2% worst drawdown, and 2 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
Max drawdown
-1.9%WORST FALL
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
What votes againstNightly
MedQuality / valueweak Piotroski F-score (3/9)TTM · -2
Signal
1 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Avoid score6-month distress
0.8%0.1× its cohort · heavily-traded large-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this heavily-traded large-caps segment: 8.0%. This name reads 0.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
LowPosition sizeThe sizing model has not covered this name, so no defensible cap is published for it.Not scored
LowLottery-ticket behaviourNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
2 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 2 clear. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You want income
A 0.64% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
Our track record10 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
24 logged
24 calls logged on this name, 10 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on ORLATHIS NAME
24
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 10.
0610-K disclosed linksGOLD MINING
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 1 connection.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-77.0% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
NEMPeer$121.43+0.11%
NEMCLPeer$128.000.00%
AEMPeer$194.48+0.31%
BPeer$42.88+1.32%
WPMPeer$142.92-0.67%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
2 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 3 DAYS
Job Openings (JOLTS)
2026-09-29. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 21, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
A slowing economy uses less steel, copper and chemicals.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.1% · A week later +1.1% · Two weeks later +1.7% · Rose on 88 of 163 report days
Across the last 163 Initial jobless claims reports since Jun 8, 2023, ORLA moved +0.1% on average on the day and was 1.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
More building and manufacturing means more demand for raw materials.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day 0.0% · A week later +0.9% · Two weeks later 0.0% · Rose on 18 of 38 report days
Across the last 38 Industrial production reports since Jun 15, 2023, ORLA moved 0.0% on average on the day and was 0.0% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Gold pays no interest, so it loses appeal when rates rise and the dollar strengthens.
Typical for the Gold Mining industry
On the day -0.4% · A week later +1.0% · Two weeks later +3.4% · Rose on 19 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 FOMC decision reports since Jul 1, 2023, ORLA moved -0.4% on average on the day and was 3.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
Lumber, cement and gravel.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +1.0% · A week later +0.6% · Two weeks later -0.1% · Rose on 23 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Housing starts reports since Jun 20, 2023, ORLA moved +1.0% on average on the day and was 0.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 2 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expectedA busy economy uses more steel, copper and chemicals.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.7% · A week later +3.3% · Two weeks later +4.9% · Rose on 22 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Jul 5, 2023, ORLA moved +0.7% on average on the day and was 4.9% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is due in 5 days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually helps when hiring comes in stronger than expectedA busy economy uses more steel, copper and chemicals.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.7% · A week later +3.5% · Two weeks later +5.0% · Rose on 18 of 37 report days
Across the last 37 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Jul 6, 2023, ORLA moved +0.7% on average on the day and was 5.0% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Unemployment rate is due in 5 days.
Unemployment rateUsually hurts when unemployment rises more than expectedA slowing economy uses less steel, copper and chemicals.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.7% · A week later +2.9% · Two weeks later +4.2% · Rose on 18 of 36 report days
Across the last 36 Unemployment rate reports since Jul 6, 2023, ORLA moved +0.7% on average on the day and was 4.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
GDP (advance estimate)Usually helps when the economy grows faster than expected
More building and manufacturing means more demand for raw materials.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day -1.3% · A week later -2.2% · Two weeks later -2.6% · Rose on 4 of 12 report days
Across the last 12 GDP (advance estimate) reports since Jul 28, 2023, ORLA moved -1.3% on average on the day and was 2.6% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections1 link · none confirmed
Direct connections · 1 edge
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
TOREX · Competitorcompetitornot pricedRumored · manual
0 of 1 edge is named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
Named competitors
TOREXCompetitorcompetitor
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.