Natera, Inc. (NTRA) — $318.35 −1.16%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

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NTRA fair-value estimate

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Aug 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 2.15M · Avg 1.48M
NTRANatera, Inc.$318.35-1.16%

WAIT.

Not a dip-buy setup — the evidence leans bearish.

The net signal reads -4 — more evidence points down than up, so buying this dip is catching a falling stock, not finding value. 1 of 6 usable entry checks are active; the rule needs 4. Move the price to stress-test the setup at another level.

QTick signal
-4net
2 bull / 3 bear factors · leaning
Bull 2 pts·Bear 6 pts30d
1 of 6 aligned — not yet
Waiting on the timing triggers to fire.
Market contextSector read · not on fileOKBalance sheet · SafeCautionHigh PCE sensitivity · 0.8× · n=38OKNot a falling knife
Smart entry
$316.76
basis · s1 · as of 2026-08-11
Target exit zone
$322–329
center $325.81 · basis · daily pivot + high 52w + round · as of 2026-08-11
Implied move · 1 wk
±$32.28
10.1% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure · stretched above 50-day · mean-reversion risk
Pullback risk
In line
~83% odds of a ≥10% dip · 63d · 1.3× base rate
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure · stretched above 50-day · mean-reversion risk
Volume vs 20-day avg1.46× · 2.15M vs 1.48M avg
52-week range$149.38 – $326.03
Below high since 2015-2.4% · $326.03 high
Risk / reward1 : 0.3
Plan stop$282.00
Max pain$210.00 options cluster
RSI 1472.1 overbought
Forensic flags2 review
What-if price
$318.35
$235.39 · -26.1%-26.1%move the price to stress-test the setupdrag to test another price+10.1% · $350.63+10.1%
Entry strategy · 10 triggers1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
72.1
overbought
vs 50-day
$254.65
above the line · fires near $255.61
Bollinger
$237.27
no lower pierce · fires near $236.95
VWAP 20
$278.35
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $277.91
Entry level
$316.76
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$260.00
OI strike below · fires near $260.80
MACD
+4.30
histogram above zero · rising
RVolStatic
1.46×
below the 1.5× context threshold
Short int.Static
3.6%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$14.68
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, relative volume and short interest are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case
Next earnings
5 Nov 2026
· in 86 days
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file
prices 15-min delayed