Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) — Tools & Accessories. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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HLMNpeers & supply-chain relationships

HLMN fair-value estimate

HLMN earnings history

Qtick
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Bid × AskUpdated Sep 18, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 2.33M · 3-mo avg 1.54M

Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN)

HLMNHillman Solutions Corp.loading…
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after-hours · no prints

QTick signal
+1net
2 bull / 1 bear factors · balanced
Bull 4 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market contextSector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · DistressPCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 30/100 · as of 2026-09-18
Smart entry
$7.14
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-17
Target exit zone
$8.06
center $8.06 · basis · round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-17
Implied move · 1 wk
±$0.66
9.2% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.07× the norm · 85% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (2/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.81×
52-week range$6.92 – $10.85
Below high since 2020-46.7% · $13.48 high
Risk / reward1.57 : 1
Plan stop$6.56
Max pain$7.50 options cluster
RSI 1435.7 fires under 35 · fires near $7.08
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple35.7× trailing · forward not on file
P/E vs its own past2nd pctile · 85.8× median
Free cash flow yield2.5% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal. Over the last 20 sessions, 48% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

4 of 6 aligned — STRIKE
RSI 14
35.7
fires under 35 · fires near $7.08
vs 50-day
$8.06
below the line
Bollinger
$6.77
no lower pierce · fires near $6.68
VWAP 20
$7.46
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
$7.14
within 1% of model level
Put wall
$7.50
2026-09-18 expiry · chain of 2026-09-16
MACD
Context
-0.03
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.81×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
2.5%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.29
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
Next earnings
2026-11-03
in 32 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file