Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) — Tools & Accessories. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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HLMN fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 6, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 2.97M · 3-mo avg 1.70M

Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN)

HLMNHillman Solutions Corp.loading…
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QTick signal
+2net
2 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 6 pts·Bear 4 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · Distress—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 0/100 · Nov 6
$8.28
near a recent low, a support level and the 200-day average · Nov 6
$10.85
near the 52-week high · midpoint $10.85 · Nov 6
±$0.63
±7.6% up or down, priced by the options market
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
In line
85% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.1× the usual rate · rating eased: at bottom zone (1/6 bottoming checks met)
Death cross
50-day average is below the 200-day — a downtrend · price is back above the 50-day, trying to recover
Trading volume49% above normal1.49× its 20-day average
Past year's range$6.66 – $10.85lowest to highest price
From its peak38.3% belowpeak $13.48, highest since 2020
Gain vs. risk2.88 to 1$2.88 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$7.44the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$7.50price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)64.6fires under 35 · fires near $6.34
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit41.6× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 19%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 83.4×
Cash it generates2.1%of its market value, per year

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price down 2.5%. Over the last 20 sessions, 40% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

1 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
64.6
fires under 35 · fires near $6.34
vs 50-day
●
$7.37
above the line · fires near $7.41
Bollinger
●
$6.53
no lower pierce · fires near $6.34
VWAP 20
●
$7.72
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $7.72
Entry level
✓
$8.28
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$7.50
2026-11-20 expiry · chain of 2026-11-06
MACD
Context✓
+0.13
histogram above zero · fading
RVolStatic
1.49×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
2.5%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$0.39
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-02-16
in 67 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file