Deep dive · NasdaqGS: FISV
Fiserv, Inc. stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Fiserv, Inc. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Why the reads disagreeread this before the sections
3 factors lean up and 2 lean down and the split is genuine rather than a formality. The net lands at +2 over 30d, a balanced reading, which makes this a question of size rather than of direction.
Leans up · and why
earnings, insider flow, sentiment vote up.
Leans down · and why
quality / value, analyst moves vote down.
What it changes
Size, not direction. dealers are short gamma, so swings get bigger both ways; separately, the tail model puts a very bad day at −12.8%; and the binding position cap is 2.4% — the tail cap is the one that binds.
Global tapeOverseas lean+0.36%
FrankfurtFIV-2.38%⏱ZurichFISV0.00%⏱MéxicoFISV*0.00%⏱London0IP9+3.80%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 4 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-18
Wall Street rating
Hold
+27% to the average target
25 analysts
median target $60
median target $60
Chart pattern
Below both averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $51.96 · -9.2%
200-day $57.88 · -18.5%
200-day $57.88 · -18.5%
Earnings
In 40 days
28 Oct 2026 · options imply ±6.2%
beat 5–6 of the last 8
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=45,184
cohort P(beat) 64% · n=45,184
Valuation
6.2× forward
1st of its own five-year range
5yr median 29×
FCF yield 16.16%
FCF yield 16.16%
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
1 critical
5 checks run, 1 clear
beta 0.64 · vol 36% ann.
worst drawdown -65%
worst drawdown -65%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
NasdaqGS · USD
$47.19-2.11 · -4.28%AH · vol 11.63M
52-week range↑ 0% off low · ↓ 65.2% off high
$47.04now $47.19$135.59
After-hours
$47.39+0.42%
Sep 18, 2026 · 5:09 PM ET
Quote Sep 18, 2026 · time not on file
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
01Ratios · Jun 22, 2026SOLVENCY IN QUESTION
Survival & solvency
Altman-Z of 1.3 against a 3.0 safe threshold, interest covered 5.8×, and 1 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Bankruptcy risk (Altman-Z)
1.27DISTRESS ZONE
Distress<1.8
Grey1.8–3.0
Safe>3.0
Profitability, leverage and liquidity combined into one number. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Balance sheetJun 22, 2026
Distance to default (Merton)STRESSED
1.5σ
How many standard deviations of asset value sit between the company and its debt. Above 4σ is comfortable.
1-year default probabilityEDF-CALIBRATED
1.88%
Calibrated against how often companies at this distance actually defaulted, rather than assuming a normal distribution.
Piotroski F-scoreWATCH
F 5/9
Piotroski F-score 5 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills1.03×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital1.13
Interest coverageoperating profit against the interest bill5.8×healthy >5
Leverage · long-term debt / equitythe borrowings that outlive a bad quarter0.04
Net debtborrowings in excess of cash on hand$28.32B
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersLOW DILUTION
25th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Net buyback yieldSHRINKING
6.96%
Buybacks less new issuance, as a share of market value.
Buyback yieldGROSS
7.19%
Repurchases as a share of market value, before new issuance is netted off.
Stock-based comp / revenueIN LINE
1.7%
Stock comp is the dilution pressure a buyback has to outrun. We read up to 5% of revenue as modest and above 12% as heavy — our own reading band, not a measured peer statistic.
Diluted vs basic share gapTHIN OVERHANG
0.35%
Options and awards already granted, expressed as the gap between the diluted and basic counts.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE D
50 / 100
1 critical · 3 watch · 1 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressCRITICALZ 1.29Altman-Z in the Distress · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -2.57M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageWATCHLTD/E 1.01long-term debt 1.01× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 5/9Piotroski F-score 5 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsWATCH1 flag1 filing red flag on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 1 clear and 3 watch and 1 critical. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 18, 2026FAIR · 47/100
Business quality
16% net margin, 13% return on equity, +4% revenue growth, and capital earning 9% against a 6% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
47 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 18, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
16.4%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
59.4%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
26.9%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
13.5%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
2.4pp
Earns 9% on invested capital that costs about 6%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
61.4%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-5.3%
3 months+3.0%
6 months-13.5%
Year to date-24.8%
1 year-62.9%
Revenue growth (YoY)GROWING
+3.6%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
EPS growth (YoY)MARGINS WIDENING
+17.8%
Earnings per share against a year ago. Running ahead of revenue means margins are widening.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
-61.0%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankTOP 42%
58 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earningsAug 6, 2026
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
64%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Beat rate · this nameBEAT 5–6 OF THE LAST 8
6 of 8
Its own record against consensus. 8 prints is a small sample, which is why the cohort rate above carries the probability.
Fell after a beatP(FELL | BEAT)
50%
A beat is not a plan: this share of them still closed lower on the day.
Typical earnings moveMEDIAN ABSOLUTE
±4.3%
Unsigned magnitudes from its own prints. Direction is not part of this read.
Reaction: beat vs missASYMMETRIC
-1.6% / -15.6%
The average day-one move after a beat and after a miss. A miss dropping the stock further than a beat lifts it is the asymmetry worth sizing for.
Sells the newsON THE PRINT
Yes
It has a habit of closing lower on a good report, because by report day the beat is already expected.
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 18, 2026
Sideways
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%0.0%1,473,236
21d49%0.0%691,862
63d51%+0.2%218,831
slope -0.05 over 40 bars
Three black crows · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%310,689
21d50%0.0%146,312
63d49%-0.4%46,362
three falling red bars
Falling wedge · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d50%0.0%429,088
21d50%+0.1%202,227
63d50%+0.2%64,074
falling & converging — bullish
031ST OF ITS 5-YEAR RANGE
Price & timing
Price $47.19, 6.2× forward earnings, RSI 35, and dealers short gamma.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Below every average0 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $51.96 · 200-day $57.88. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-12 → 2026-09-17
price50-day200-daylevel
How to read this
Down 4.28% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
The dashed levels are the strikes the options chain is most committed to. They are the same numbers the gamma block states; nothing here is drawn that no section derives.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
35
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±3.8%
$1.81
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.23
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position0% OF RANGE
Lower band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$51.48
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitBROKEN
$48.57
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
28 Oct 2026 · in 40 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 28 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-25 · in 7 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Direction oddsnext 12m
54 / 46cohort n=21,623
A lean, not a forecast. These are the cohort's odds — comparable names over the window — not this stock's own history.
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Unknownn=214,592
Pullback base rate 75% over 63 trading days (n=214,592).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.5σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$46 – $493 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $48.92, Pivot low at $48.37, Pivot low at $47.04.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
8 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Historically, names tripping 0 validated red flags finished lower 12 months later in 46% of cases (n=21,623) — a survivor-biased floor, not a forecast.
Valuation
Earnings yield vs cashABOVE CASH
5.42pp
The earnings yield clears the risk-free rate, so the current return alone competes with cash.
Net cash per shareNET DEBT
$-36.13
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Forward P/Eearnings expected over the next 12 months6.2×5yr median 29×
Trailing P/Eearnings already reported9.6×1st of its 5yr range
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit1.3×5yr median 4.0×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets1.0×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay6.1×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off12.8×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value16.16%
0 of the 7 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 17, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$49.05In zone deep
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetRound + sma 50 + vwap 50
$52.13$52–$53
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
Stop2× ATR below entry
$45.44risk $3.61/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.85:1flagged low
Less reward than risk at these levels. The composer publishes it rather than hiding it, because a sub-1 ratio is the argument against the trade.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
+10.1%
short-term trend line · $51.96
To the 200-day
+22.6%
primary trend line · $57.88
To the put wall
-4.6%
heaviest put open interest · $45.00
To the call wall
+16.6%
heaviest call open interest · $55.00
To the composer's target
+10.5%
Round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · set Sep 17, 2026 · $52.13
To the composer's stop
-3.7%
2× ATR below entry · set Sep 17, 2026 · $45.44
To the 52-week high
+187.3%
highest print of the past year · $135.59
To the 52-week low
-0.3%
lowest print of the past year · $47.04
Options-implied week ±6.2%
$44.29 – $50.09
what the chain prices for the week
A typical day (ATR)
$45.38 – $49.00
±$1.81 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $49.05 · stop $45.44 · target $52.13, a 0.85:1 ratio. The composer flagged: elevated distress, fair-value reference, low reward to risk.
Gamma mapChain · Sep 18, 2026
Signal
Short gamma — moves get amplified.
Dealers hedge in the same direction as the move, so swings get bigger both ways rather than one. That argues for a smaller position size, not for a direction.
Options tapeFront expiry 2026-09-18 · Chain · Sep 18, 2026
Max pain-0.1%
$50.00
The strike where most open options expire worthless. Price often drifts toward it into expiry.
Put / call ratio (OI)CALL-HEAVY
0.66
60% calls
40% puts
Open interest in puts against calls. Heavy call interest often caps how far price can run before expiry.
Put / call ratio (volume)TODAY'S FLOW
0.73
Today's traded flow rather than the standing position. It moves faster and means less.
Expected move (1-week)≈ $3.08
±6.2%
What the chain prices for the week. A range the market is charging for, not a forecast.
Largest open interest · front expiry
StrikeTypeOpen interest
$45.00PUT18,022
$55.00CALL6,772
$50.00PUT5,119
$50.00CALL3,548
$55.00PUT2,569
$56.00CALL1,005
Large call interest above the price acts as a magnet and a ceiling; large put interest below is a floor of hedges. The biggest strike is the level the market is most committed to defending into the next expiry.
Open interest by strikeexpires 2026-09-18CallsPutsMax pain $50.00
1k
$56.00
07k
$55.00
3k688
$54.00
22735
$53.00
150633
$52.00
283440
$51.00
4684k
$50.00
5k4
$49.50
20829
$49.00
5170
$48.50
3091
$48.00
2920
$47.50
1074
$47.00
700
$46.50
13021
$46.00
234275
$45.00
18k
The shaded row is the strike nearest the price. Heavy call interest above acts as a ceiling; heavy put interest below is a floor of hedges.
↑ 52-week high$135.59+171.0%The highest print of the past year.Old highs draw profit-taking on the first attempt.
↑ Call wall$55.00+9.9%Heaviest call open interest on the front expiry.Acts as a ceiling into expiry; a close above usually needs a catalyst.
◇ Max pain$50.00-0.1%Where most open options expire worthless.Price often drifts toward it into the close of the expiry week.
↓ 50-day average$51.96+3.8%The line the short-term trend is measured against.A close beneath it is the first structural warning.
↓ Put wall$45.00-10.1%Heaviest put open interest — a floor of hedges.Dealer buying tends to build as price approaches.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL +2
Ownership & flow
and 25 analysts average $60.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Net signal
+2BALANCED · 30d
3 bull / 2 bear factors. The points sum to the net beside the label; nothing here is weighted after the fact.
The QTick signalNightly
Analyst moves90D · TIMING
-1
15 price-target cuts in 90d
Earnings4 QUARTERS · TIMING
+2
latest EPS beat by 13%
Insider flow120D · TIMING
+2
net insider buying ($1,169,228 across 3 buys) in 120d
Quality / valueTTM · CONTEXT
-2
Altman-Z in the distress zone
Sentiment1–30D · TIMING
+1
7d sentiment elevated (86/100)
Signal
3 bull / 2 bear factors
Independent factors scored and netted to +2 over 30d, a balanced reading. 5 of 9 factors carried a direction; the others scored zero and do not vote. The signal describes where the data leans, not what to do about it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street25 covering firms
Consensus rating25 ANALYSTS
Hold
Across 25 covering firms.
Median price target+27%
$60
$40now $47$106
A $40–$106 spread across the panel. A twelve-month view, and a wide spread means real disagreement rather than a consensus.
Forward EPS estimateCONSENSUS
$8.08
What the panel expects the company to earn per share.
Recent analyst moves · last 90 days
FirmTargetDirectionRank
TD Cowen$55→47/100
Cantor Fitzgerald$53→43/100
Truist Securities$53↑46/100
UBS$60↓50/100
TD Cowen$55↓47/100
RBC Capital$65↓48/100
Barclays$52↓50/100
JP Morgan$60↓49/100
Upgrades, downgrades and target changes from covering firms. A cluster of moves in one direction matters more than any single target; the rank is the firm's own credibility score, or a dash below the scoring floor.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
Buying convictionSCORED
5 / 100
Blends how many executives bought, how large the trades were and how clustered in time — rather than raw ownership percentages.
Executive buyers90-DAY WINDOW
0
No executive bought on the open market in the window. That is the normal state, not a bear signal.
Funds entering / exitingNET -95
+80 / −175
Institutions opening a first position against those closing out entirely, at the latest filings.
Insider filings · Form 4
InsiderTradeAmountPlanTraded
Todd Paul M · Chief Financial OfficerTax withholding$39,194—17 Sep
FRITZ LANCE M · DirectorBuy$519,500—07 Aug
Rosman Adam L. · Chief Admin. and Legal OfficerAwardnot on file—03 Aug
Mamilli Wafaa · DirectorAward$37,523—30 Jun
Gopal Ajei · DirectorAward$37,523—30 Jun
FRITZ LANCE M · DirectorAward$37,523—30 Jun
Executives must file within two business days. Sales on pre-set 10b5-1 plans are scheduled months ahead and carry little signal; tax withholding, exercises and awards are compensation mechanics, not trades; the open-market lines are the ones to read.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNEWS
-4.28%
FISV fell −4.28% in after-hours trading, amid recent coverage: “Why Fiserv (FISV) Stock Is Down Today - Quiver Quantitative” (Quiver Quantitative).
News tone · 7-day+7
100 / 100
Headline polarity over the window, scored from news articles. Above 60 leans positive, below 40 negative. Colour, not a signal.
Newswire · 48 stories
WhenHeadlineSourceTone
1h agoCFO of Fiserv (NASDAQ: FISV) reports 795-share tax withholding - Stock TitanStock Titannot scored
3h agoWhy Fiserv (FISV) Stock Is Down Today - Quiver QuantitativeQuiver Quantitativenot scored
WedFiserv Inc. (FISV) Slips 1.14% to $49.45, Holding Mid-Range Between Key Levels - Early Entry Signals - dars.gov.etdars.gov.etnot scored
WedFiserv Inc. (FISV) Slips 1.14% to $49.45, Holding Mid-Range Between Key Levels - Fear Greed Index - CarePlus VietNamCarePlus VietNamnot scored
WedFiserv, Inc. Tokenized Stock (Robinhood) to British Pound Sterling Price Today | Live FISV to GBP Converter & Exchange Rate - CryptoRankCryptoRanknot scored
WedIs Fiserv (FISV) Undervalued On Project Elevate And Its Margin Expansion Plan? - simplywall.stsimplywall.stnot scored
TueFiserv Targets Turnaround With Project Elevate, AI and Clover GrowthMarketBeatnot scored
TueFiserv Targets Turnaround With Project Elevate, AI and Clover Growth - Yahoo FinanceYahoo Financenot scored
Coverage published around the move, newest first. Nothing here measures causation — only the why-it-moved card above is matched to the tape by timestamp.
CongressSTOCK Act · 30–45d lag
Signal
Net selling.
1 of 6 disclosures are buys and 5 are sales. Lawmakers disclose on a 30–45 day legal lag, so this describes what was done weeks ago, not what is being done now.
0516 graded callsORDINARY VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 0.64, 36% annual volatility, a -65% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−12.8%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−84.1%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementHEAVY TAIL
2.1×
A normal-curve estimate understates this name's worst days by about 2.1×, so volatility alone is the wrong risk measure for it.
Max drawdownIT CAN HALVE
-64.8%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)LOW FIT
0.64
The market explains about 2.0% of its daily moves, so this beta says little about how it tracks the index — most of its movement is its own.
Annualized volatilityORDINARY
36%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure66
Buying pressure0
Overheat0
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes againstNightly
MedQuality / valueAltman-Z in the distress zoneTTM · -2
LowAnalyst moves15 price-target cuts in 90d90d · -1
Signal
2 of 9 factors vote against.
Ranked by the size of each factor's own point contribution to the net signal — these are the model's stated reasons, not a written bear case. Each one is scored from the source named beside it.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.4%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.4% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
20.5%2.2× its cohort · most-traded mega-caps
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this most-traded mega-caps segment: 9.3%. This name reads 2.2× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 30.7% · tail cap 2.4% · category cap 13.7%. The tail cap binds, so 2.4% is the number (n=5,511). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftDrift odds at full strength (+3.21% / 63-day spread reference from measured post-earnings drift).Timing
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -65%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 36% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You'd be buying into earnings
A report lands in 40 days, and the chain prices ±6.2% for the week.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.4% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record16 resolved
Overall hit-rate16 RESOLVED
0%
Every call is timestamped and graded when it resolves.
Calls on FISV0 CORRECT
35
This name's own record, shown separately because a handful of calls is a small sample against the overall total.
0610-K disclosed links
The wider context
18 connections.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
-6.4% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peers
Data unavailableNo peer set is mapped for this name, so there is nothing to compare it against. The comparison needs a sector cohort with enough covered names to be meaningful.
Time machineHistory from 2023-06-01
Signal
1 of 4 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 7 DAYS
Consumer Sentiment
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stock
Data unavailableNo scheduled report or decision has a documented read for FISV's sector yet, and there is no price history around one on file. Both fill in as the company's sector is mapped and past reports are studied.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections18 links · none confirmed
Direct connections · 18 edges
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
WF · Suppliersupplier-1.37%Rumored · manual
IFS · Suppliersupplier-0.13%Rumored · manual
CLBK · Suppliersupplier+0.26%Rumored · manual
TCBI · Suppliersupplier+0.44%Rumored · manual
BLX · Suppliersupplier-1.14%Rumored · manual
BANC · Suppliersupplier-0.97%Rumored · manual
ABCB · Suppliersupplier+0.60%Rumored · manual
BKU · Suppliersupplier+0.04%Rumored · manual
BOKF · Suppliersupplier-0.20%Rumored · manual
WSFS · Suppliersupplier-0.48%Rumored · manual
KB · Suppliersupplier-2.23%Rumored · manual
NTB · Suppliersupplier+0.37%Rumored · manual
CATY · Suppliersupplier+0.37%Rumored · manual
PFS · Suppliersupplier-0.39%Rumored · manual
EBC · Suppliersupplier+0.23%Rumored · manual
FIBK · Suppliersupplier+0.51%Rumored · manual
INDB · Suppliersupplier-0.22%Rumored · manual
TRMK · Suppliersupplier-0.06%Rumored · manual
0 of 18 edges are named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
What it depends on
WFSuppliersupplier
IFSSuppliersupplier
CLBKSuppliersupplier
TCBISuppliersupplier
BLXSuppliersupplier
BANCSuppliersupplier
ABCBSuppliersupplier
BKUSuppliersupplier
BOKFSuppliersupplier
WSFSSuppliersupplier
KBSuppliersupplier
NTBSuppliersupplier
CATYSuppliersupplier
PFSSuppliersupplier
EBCSuppliersupplier
FIBKSuppliersupplier
INDBSuppliersupplier
TRMKSuppliersupplier
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.