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Markets / DJTWW
DJTWW
NasdaqGM
bear

Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. ·

$3.70
0.00 (0.00%)
Aug 11, 2026 · 9:54 AM ET
Mkt cap$1.13B
P/E · fwd ·
Div yieldNone
Beta 1y
Volume4.2K× avg
52-wk range -88.4%3.5432
The five reads
At a glance the decision-relevant reads, first
GLOBAL TAPE
No overseas listings — DJTWW trades on its home exchange only.
Track record · free & ungated
We grade our price-band calls in public

Each forward price band is logged the day it's set and scored when it resolves — misses included. None have resolved yet, so there is no hit-rate to show. This builds in the open, not behind the paywall.

5
bands logged
0
resolved so far
Building
status
The calibration ledger stays free, always — a track record can't sit behind a paywall.

Price action

Price & quote

Live quote refreshed every 15 minutes against the full daily snapshot.

The readHolding bidfact

Where the price sits inside today's range and its 52-week range, plus how it's performed over time. This is the raw quote — the same number everywhere, just faster.

Death crossSideways range50-day sits below the 200-day — bearish long-term structure.
1.56.711.816.922.0Sideways rangeDeath crossS · 3S · 3S · 3R · 4R · 4R · 4
Drag or arrow-key the chart for daily OHLCV · 126 sessions through Aug 07, 2026 · prev close $3.70 (dashed) · live $3.70 hollow — not yet a settled bar
Open
$6.85
Prev close
$3.70
Volume
4.2K
avg —
Rel. volume
—×
below normal
Market cap
$1.13B
Shares out
0
float 159.58M
Day range
$3.54$3.70
52-week range
$3.54$31.99
-88.4% from high+4.5% above low

The QTick signal

QTick proprietary signal

A transparent point tally — bull evidence minus bear evidence — read over ~30 days. Faster factors time the swing; slower ones (quality, 13F, forensics) weigh in as longer-horizon context. A model-based prior, not advice.

~30-day swing read · graded vs S&Puncalibrated prior · track record buildingstrength is the tally magnitude, not a probability
-4
net · leaning
0 bull / 1 bear factors
Factor breakdown 8 factors · signed points sum to net -4
Analyst moves90d
Earnings4 quarters
Insider flow120d
Estimate revisionsWeeks
Sentiment1–30d
Longer-horizon context weighs the read · not a 30-day timing call
Institutional (13F)Latest 13F
Quality / valueTTM-4 pts
Altman-Z in the distress zone
Filing forensicsLatest FY
Risk flagsDaily
Net tally
-4
0 bull − 4 bear
Factors agreeing
0↑ 1↓
of 9 tracked
Read strength
leaning
30d horizon
Strongest factor
Quality / value
-4 pts
Model
QTick Engine
DJTWW track record
Building
0 of 5 resolved
Forensic flags filing red flags · backtested edge where shown
Elevated SBC dilutionelevated stock-based-comp dilution
Share-count creepsteady share-count creep
Territory — competitor / supplier graph
-4 net
leaning
0 bull / 1 bear factors

Red-Flag X-Ray

Accounting quality · red-flag scan

One integrity score (0–100) from a set of accounting checks that look for red flags. Higher is safer — and we show the checks it passed, not just the ones it failed.

40
/ 100
Integrity score
D
2 critical · 2 watch · 1 clear of 5 scored tests
1 clear2 watch2 critical
Test battery
!!
5 forensic tests · 1 passed clean · 2 flagged for watch
Critical
Bankruptcy distressZ -1.84
Altman-Z in the Distress
Critical
Earnings manipulationM 2.82
Possible manipulation
Clear
LeverageD/E 0.00
debt-to-equity 0.00×
!Watch
Profitability qualityF 4/9
Piotroski F-score 4 of 9
!Watch
Filing forensics2 flag(s)
2 filing red flag(s) on the latest 10-K
How we test · 7 forensic testsA clear result ships as openly as a flag — and the tests that don't fire are published in full. No survivorship bias.
Share dilution / SBC creepFires when shares outstanding rise materially or stock-based comp outpaces buybacks.
Distress (Altman-Z, negative equity)Fires on balance-sheet fragility. For banks we substitute regulatory capital (CET1).
Margin trajectoryFires on multi-quarter gross / operating margin erosion.
Going-concern languageNLP scan of filings for material-doubt or going-concern wording.
Filing timelinessFires on late / NT (non-timely) filings and restatements.
Insider selling into strengthFires on discretionary insider sells during price strength; 10b5-1 plans down-weighted.
Analyst-downgrade momentumFires on clusters of net downgrades and target cuts.

Odds & pullback risk

Setup & odds

Which way the next move is more likely to go — and how overstretched the price looks right now.

The readwhere it sitsuncalibrated prior · not a forecast

How the likely upside compares with the downside, and how stretched the price is — odds, not timing.

Upside vs downside · 12m
Upside/downside split not available
Expected move · 1wk±—
Upside target$3.93 +6.2% · level, not a call
Invalidation / stop$3.50 -5.4% · level, not a call
Reward : risk1.1 : 1
BullClose above $4 opens continuation.
BaseChop between stop and target into the next catalyst.
BearA break of $4 invalidates the setup.
Pullback risk · experimental
LowElevatedHigh
Pullback base rate 74% over 63 trading days (n=204,962).
74%saw a ≥10% pullback within 63dn=204,962 · observational
Resolved up vs down · 63d50% up · 50% down same historical group as the pullback read · 204,962 cases · flat outcomes count on neither side — a historical rate, not a call
Conditioned onANY · ANY vol · ANY momentum the past setups matched against this one
    In detail
    How to read the odds
    This is a historical rate, and an experimental one: across 25 years, stocks in the same state — same segment, same price phase, same volatility, same momentum — pulled back this often. The record is built from today's list of companies, so names that delisted along the way are missing and each stock's current segment is projected backward; the rates lean toward survivors until that rebuild lands. Compare the multiple against the segment rather than the bare percentage — recent years run higher than the full 25-year record. None of it predicts timing.

    Trend & technical structure

    Trend & technicals

    The price chart's vital signs, in plain English. Expand any row for what it actually means for you.

    The readwhere it sitsmoving-average posture · fact

    Moving averages describe the direction; RSI and the bands describe how stretched the move is. Neither predicts the next one.

    Average prices (the trend)
    Price vs 200-day
    Momentum, bands & levels
    In detail
    The simple version
    When price sits aboveits averages with momentum rising, the trend is healthy. When RSI is near the extremes or the price looks "stretched," the move is overdone and often takes a breather. Think of these as a weather report — conditions, not instructions.
    Pattern outcomes · derived analysis

    Do these patterns even work?

    Derived · what patterns actually did

    Every charting site detects the pattern. We publish what happened next — the forward win-rate and sample size at each horizon, including the famous patterns that historically meant nothing.

    The readForward win-rates, with sample sizewhere it sits

    How often each chart pattern was actually followed by a gain, and how many past cases that's based on — including famous ones that didn't work.

    Each bar is the win-rate — how often the price was higher that many days after the pattern appeared. The line marks 50%, a coin flip: green beats it, red is worse than chance. Every bar is a platform-wide cohort base rateacross every stock that has shown this pattern (cohort record, not this ticker's own history alone).
    Pattern10-day21-day63-day
    SidewaysBelow a coin flip
    forward win-rate47.5%n=1,436,439
    forward win-rate49.0%n=674,534
    forward win-rate50.8%n=214,238
    slope -0.05 over 40 bars
    MarubozuBelow a coin flip
    forward win-rate43.0%n=151,007
    forward win-rate51.4%n=154,597
    forward win-rate44.8%n=70,621
    forward win-rate51.5%n=72,449
    forward win-rate47.3%n=22,231
    forward win-rate51.3%n=22,782
    full-body, no shadows
    Gap upBelow a coin flip
    forward win-rate42.6%n=174,988
    forward win-rate42.4%n=82,077
    forward win-rate42.1%n=25,760
    opened 31.9% above prior close
    Rsi oversoldBelow a coin flip
    forward win-rate45.7%n=220,748
    forward win-rate47.7%n=103,497
    forward win-rate50.2%n=32,193
    RSI 0 ≤ 30
    Macd bearish crossBarely beats chance
    forward win-rate50.5%n=151,531
    forward win-rate50.4%n=71,236
    forward win-rate50.4%n=22,577
    MACD crossed below signal
    Snapshot as of 2026-07-29
    In detail
    Why we show you the losers
    Famous reversal signals like a bullish engulfing have historically closed higher less than half the time at short horizons — below a coin flip. We publish the win-rate and the sample size on every cohort, so a 42-case base rate never masquerades as an 8,500-case one. Objective base rates, not forecasts.

    Momentum & performance

    Momentum / performance

    Trailing returns and relative strength versus the benchmark.

    The readwhere it sitsRS percentile vs market

    How the stock has returned, and whether it's beating the market. A strong run shows recent leadership — leadership reverses without warning.

    Trailing returns
    1-month-23.8%
    3-month-23.8%
    6-month-80.8%
    Year-to-date-80.8%
    1-year-80.8%
    12-1 momentum
    Relative strength vs S&P 500
    RS-rank
    percentile vs market
    laggingleading
    Relative strength line (β-adj)
    In detail
    What relative strength tells you
    Relative strength compares DJTWW's return to the market — high and rising RS is the single most persistent momentum factor. No RS-rank is available for this name yet.

    Risk profile

    Risk

    Volatility and sensitivity, regressed against SPY from adjusted bars — then the landmine check: what could actually go wrong here.

    The readLow drawdown riskwhere it sitsvs the px $1-$5 segment base rate · observational

    Beta is how much it moves with the market; volatility and the worst drop show how rough the ride has been. Historical context, not a position-size rule.

    10.0%6-month large-drawdown risk vs 14.8% for its segment
    Low drawdown riskNames like this hit a large drawdown within 6 months at 0.7× the rate of the px $1-$5 segment — observational, never a sell.
    Beta · 1-year
    Beta · 3-year
    Realized vol · 30d
    annualized
    Max drawdown · 1y
    -28.8%
    The drawdown read · 6-month, segment-graded
    Where it sits0.7×
    LowHigh
    vs the px $1-$5 segment base rate · observational
    10.0%6-month large-drawdown risk, vs 14.8% for its segment
    Max drawdown, trailing year-0.29 driver
    Distance from 52-week high-0.29 driver
    Log price (level)1.31 driver
    Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this px $1-$5 segment: 14.8%. This name reads 0.7× that base rate.
    In detail
    Reading risk
    largest drawdown observed in the trailing year was 29% — both are what happened, not a bound on what can. The drawdown band above is observational — a risk sort against names of the same segment, blind to balance-sheet failures that never showed in the price.

    Failure modes

    Coverage
    Data not available — failure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far
    Macro sensitivity · derived analysis

    How rates push this name

    Derived · rates & regime

    The 10-year yield is public. Its measured pull on this specific stock — and how it trades around the macro calendar — is the derived layer.

    The readDJTWW: not enough price history yet to measure macro sensitivity (flagged low-confidence).where it sitshow it moved when rates moved · extremes trimmed

    How much this stock actually moves when interest rates move, and how it behaves around big economic releases.

    Sensitivity to 10Y yield
    Per +1% in the 10Y yield+64.5%
    120+12
    Rates are a DJTWW: not enough price history yet to measure macro sensitivity (flagged low-confidence). for this name
    Observations498 rolling window
    Fit · r²n/a
    Measured across 498 daily moves against the 10-year Treasury yield (FRED DGS10). Where the company-level link is weak or the sample is short, we fall back to the sector average rather than print a number we don't trust.
    Behaviour around the macro calendar
    CPI · vs a typical dayn=00.0×
    FOMC · vs a typical dayn=00.0×
    NFP · vs a typical dayn=00.0×
    PCE · vs a typical dayn=00.0×
    × = how much more this stock moves on each release day vs a normal day. Amber = outsized (≥1.4×). Context, not a directional call.
    Volatility regime
    The volatility engine runs on market-wide risk channels, not on individual names, so there is no 1-year volatility percentile for this symbol. The realized-volatility and drawdown reads in the risk section are the per-name measures.

    Valuation

    Valuation

    Is the stock cheap or expensive? Each multiple is graded and explained in plain English.

    The readLeans expensivewhere it sitsagainst its own 5-year range where we have it · standard bands otherwise

    Price against earnings, sales, book value and cash flow. We mark the measures that don't apply rather than fake them.

    What you pay for earnings
    P/E (trailing)Price ÷ last 12 months of profit; graded vs own 5y history when coveredn/an/a
    Forward P/EPrice ÷ next year's expected profitn/an/a
    PEG ratioValuation set against expected growth — lower can look cheaper, but one cutoff is not a verdictn/an/a
    Earnings yieldProfit as a % of price, like a bond yieldn/a
    Earnings yield − risk-freeEarnings yield minus the government-bond yield at the same daten/an/a
    Dividend yieldAnnual indicated cash dividend as a % of price0.00%Income
    What you pay for the business
    Price / SalesPrice ÷ annual revenue; graded vs own 5y history when covered307.0×Rich
    Price / BookPrice ÷ net assets on the books0.69×Cheap
    EV / EBITDAWhole-company value ÷ operating cash earningsn/an/a
    EV / FCFWhole-company value ÷ positive free cash flow137.2×Rich
    Price / FCFPrice ÷ free cash flow generated79.7×Rich
    FCF yieldFree cash flow as a % of market value1.25%Rich
    P/E vs own 5yFive-year median not on filen/an/a
    P/S vs own 5yFive-year median not on filen/aRich
    EV/EBITDA and P/FCF need positive operating cash earnings to mean anything (and don't apply to banks, where leverage is the product) — so we mark them n/a rather than print a misleading number.
    Peers today territory performance, for valuation context

    Fundamentals & quality

    Fundamentals / quality

    How good is the underlying business? Scale, profitability and balance-sheet strength, graded.

    The readReturns below capital costwhere it sitsreturn on capital vs its estimated cost of funding

    Scale, profitability and balance sheet, with industrial return on capital compared directly with its estimated funding cost.

    Scale & growth
    Revenue · TTMTotal sales over the last 12 monthsScale
    EPS · TTMProfit earned per shareProfit
    Net marginCents of profit kept per $1 of sales-19,335.8%Weak
    Revenue growthSales vs a year ago+1.8%Weak
    EPS growthProfit-per-share vs a year agon/a
    Margin trajectoryAre profit margins widening or shrinking?n/an/a
    Returns & balance sheet
    ROEProfit generated on shareholders' equity-43.2%Weak
    ROICAfter-tax operating profit earned on the capital the business uses-10.6%Weak
    WACCEstimated blended cost of debt and equity10.2%Hurdle
    ROIC − WACCReturn on capital above or below its funding cost-20.8%Weak
    Incremental ROIC · ~3yWhat the last three years of new investment has actually earnedn/an/a
    Gross / Op marginProfitability before & after operating costs55% / -4611%Strong
    Free cash flowCash left after running & investing$14.18MStrong
    Cash self-fundingSelf-funding on trailing free cash flow, or months of cash left at the current burnn/an/a
    Debt / EquityGross borrowings vs equity — negative book equity is not gradeable0.58Strong
    Current ratioCan it cover near-term bills? Over 1.5 is healthy1.23OK
    Total assets · YoYBalance-sheet growth — a fact, not a signal · grew faster than 94% of the measured cross-section · as of 2026-08-09+180.3%Fact
    Last filed 2026-08-11

    Inventory ledger

    The stockroom
    Data not available.

    Segments & geography

    Where the revenue lives
    Data not available.

    Credit & safety

    Coverage
    Data not available.
    Dilution radar · derived analysis

    Are your shares being diluted?

    Derived · ownership erosion

    Raw share count is everywhere. The consequence — how fast the count is growing and where that ranks against peers — is the read that matters.

    The readwhere it sitsdilution percentile vs peers

    How fast the share count is changing versus peers, with stock compensation, issuance and repurchases shown separately when covered.

    5-year share-count CAGR
    The CAGR needs annual filings roughly five years apart that both carry a share count. This name's filing history on file does not span that window, so no rate is published — the buyback and stock-comp rows below are measured independently and still hold.
    Most-dilutive percentile vs peers
    LeastMedianMost
    0percentile100
    Peer percentile95th above median
    Stock comp / revenue1,607.3% latest fiscal year
    Stock comp / OCFoperating cash flow401.1% latest fiscal year
    Gross buyback yield+3.78% TTM repurchases / market value
    Net buyback yield+3.78% TTM repurchases minus issuance / market value
    Diluted / basic share gap0.0% latest fiscal-year per-share overhang proxy
    SBC trendrising up to five fiscal years
    Shares outstanding · indexed 5y
    Indexing needs an unbroken run of annual share counts across the same five-year window the CAGR uses. Where a year is missing — or the reported counts switch share class mid-series — the chart is withheld rather than drawn across the gap.

    Analyst & estimates

    The Street
    Data not available.
    Earnings bias · derived analysis

    How this name behaves into the print

    Earnings habit

    The street's consensus-surprise habit — whether estimates run conservative or aggressive against what the company reports, not management's own guidance — the beat streak graded against names with the same profile, and what the tape does on good news.

    The readMixed habitwhere it sitsvalidated base rates · graded out-of-time

    Whether the street sandbags this name, how often a beat streak like this persists (with its sample size), and what the tape does with good news.

    62%of names with this beat profile beat againn=126,782 · observational
    Consensus habit · trailing 8 quarters
    Consensus-surprise habitnot management guidanceinsufficient surprise history
    insufficient history (n=0 < 4)
    62%of names that had this beat profile went on to beat again (cohort record, not this stock alone)n=126,782 · observational
    insufficient history for a bucket — pooled base rate
    survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
    What the tape does with it
    Post-earnings tape no measured announcement reactions on file yet
    Earnings-day move · typical needs ≥8 measured prints
    Implied vs realized move insufficient options history
    In detail
    How to read the habit
    This is a historical rate: among companies with the same recent beat record, that share beat again. It was checked on later periods than the ones it learned from, and against the plain long-run average. It describes the group, not this specific report.

    Ownership & positioning

    Ownership

    Who holds it, how options lean, and the most recent insider, congressional and 13F transactions.

    The readwhere it sitspositioning band · not a vote

    Who owns it and what insiders and big funds are doing. Steady buying reads positive; heavy selling reads cautious.

    Holders
    Institutional
    Insider
    Institutional flow
    Fund concentration
    Activist stakelatest Schedule 13D block on fileTRUMP DONALD J (13D/A, 2024-04-30)
    Insider & short
    Insider 90d net
    10b5-1 vs discretionaryscheduledMostly programmatic
    Short interest · %float
    Short interest · 30d Δ
    Options positioning
    Put/call · OI
    Put/call · volume
    Implied movenext exp.±—
    IV skew (25Δ)
    In detail
    Reading the positioning
    Institutional flow data unavailable.
    Recent transactions Form 4 + congressional
    FilerSourceActionValueDate
    13F filers · last quarter

    Institutional flow

    Coverage
    Data not available.

    Options

    Options pressure
    Data not available.

    Gamma map

    Coverage
    Data not available.
    From QTickOur track recordEvery call we've resolved, misses included →

    Peers & connections

    Coverage
    Data not available.

    Customer momentum

    The customer chain
    Data not available.

    News & social

    The story
    Data not available.

    What this name did from here

    Time machine

    Each look-back point: the price then, the move to today, and what was going on — earnings, corporate events, news flow.

    The readLower than a year agofact

    The price at each look-back point and the move to today, with what was happening at the time — the per-ticker face of the track record.

    Look-backs · vs the $3.96 close of 2026-08-07
    3 months ago$5.20 -23.8% to today
    6 months ago$20.61 -80.8% to today
    1 year ago$20.61 -80.8% to today
    3 years ago history starts 2024-03-26; horizon predates our data
    history starts 2024-03-26
    In detail
    Why we show the rear-view mirror
    Every number on this page gets graded by what happens next. The time machine is the same idea pointed backwards: the state of this name at each past date and the move that followed, for any symbol — not a curated highlight reel.
    Risk case · derived analysis

    The risk case

    The case against

    What can break: how hard this name has fallen before, a sensible position cap, whether it behaves like a lottery ticket, how much cash it has left, how it drifts after earnings, whether the dividend holds, and what changed in the filings — plus a crowding read when its three inputs agree.

    The readCoverage incompletewhere it sitsan experimental model estimate · the history-based reads below are graded separately

    The case against the stock: how hard it has fallen before, how much cash it has left, how it behaves after earnings, whether the dividend holds, what changed in the filings, and how crowded the trade is.

    Avoid score · v2.1 isotonic model · experimental
    The nightly batch has not scored this name yet — the model needs universe-wide ranking features that are not computed on demand.
    Max defensible position size
    Position sizing needs this name's volatility bucket and momentum direction, which are not on file.
    Lottery profile
    No cohort reference sample on file for this name's size segment.
    Cash runway · non-burner
    Positive free cash flow — burner runway risk does not apply. Non-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).
    Post-earnings drift
    No measured first-day earnings reaction on file, so drift cannot be graded.
    Dividend reliability
    No dividend on file — trap / covered classification does not apply.
    Filing restatements
    No material restatement on file in the trailing 2 years.

    Calibration scorecard

    Auditable track record

    Every rating we publish is fingerprinted, tracked, and resolved in public. Here's how we've actually done.

    5
    calls logged
    track record builds as calls resolve (0/8)
    Resolved
    0
    awaiting first results
    Open calls
    5
    tracked, unresolved
    DJTWW track record
    building
    published once resolved