Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) — Gambling Services. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 12:00 AM ETVol 559.8K · 3-mo avg 1.02M

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)

CHDNChurchill Downs Incorporatedloading…
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QTick signal
-2net
1 bull / 2 bear factors · balanced
Bull 1 pts·Bear 3 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileRiskBalance sheet · Distress—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 59/100 · as of 2026-09-24
Smart entry
$79.01
basis · low 52w + s1 · as of 2026-09-24
Target exit zone
$85–87
center $86.04 · basis · round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-24
Implied move · 1 wk
±$5.66
7.1% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.08× the norm · 85% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (0/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Death cross
50d below 200d · bearish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.99×
52-week range$79.40 – $118.35
Below high since 2015-47.9% · $152.36 high
Risk / reward1.02 : 1
Plan stop$73.59
Max pain$85.00 options cluster
RSI 1435.4 fires under 35 · fires near $79.54
Forensic flags2 review
Earnings multiple11.0× fwd · 13.9× trailing
P/E vs its own past1st pctile · 20.4× median
Free cash flow yield5.4% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal. Over the last 20 sessions, 67% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

3 of 6 aligned — closing in
RSI 14
●
35.4
fires under 35 · fires near $79.54
vs 50-day
✓
$86.22
below the line
Bollinger
●
$78.33
no lower pierce · fires near $77.85
VWAP 20
✓
$84.33
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$79.01
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$70.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-21
MACD
Context●
-0.73
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.99×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
6.7%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$2.71
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-10-28
in 24 sessions
Next dividend
0.55% yld
no ex-date on file