Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) — Medical Care Facilities. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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ASTHpeers & supply-chain relationships

ASTH fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Nov 10, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 515.2K · 3-mo avg 383.8K

Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH)

ASTHAstrana Health, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
-1net
2 bull / 3 bear factors · balanced
Bull 5 pts·Bear 6 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · Grey—Inflation-report days · not on fileOKCalm trading · sharp-drop risk 66/100 · Nov 10
$33.60
near a recent low and a support level · Nov 9 · price is already 4.2% below it
$36–37
near the 50-day average and the 50-day average trade price · midpoint $36.69 · Nov 9
±$3.69
±11.5% up or down, priced by the options market
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 13% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
Elevated
95% of similar setups fell 10% or more within 3 months · 1.2× the usual rate
Golden cross
50-day average is above the 200-day, but price is 13% below the 50-day average — the uptrend is damaged
Trading volume28% below normal0.72× its 20-day average
Past year's range$18.08 – $51.60lowest to highest price
From its peak75.2% belowpeak $136.01, highest since 2017
Gain vs. risk0.74 to 1$0.74 possible gain per $1 at risk
Plan fails below$29.40the setup is broken under this price
Options pressure point$40.00price can drift here near expiry
Momentum (RSI)37.7fires under 35 · fires near $30.84
Accounting warning signs1worth checking — see the list
Price vs. profit29.8× last 12 months
Price vs. its own pastpricier than 15%of the last 5 years · usual P/E 41.6×
Cash it generates5.8%of its market value, per year

Trading in line with its own normal, price down 4.7%. Over the last 20 sessions, 75% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

6 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
✓
37.7
fires under 35 · fires near $30.84
vs 50-day
✓
$36.90
below the line
Bollinger
✓
$34.55
lower-band pierce
VWAP 20
✓
$36.77
below the rolling VWAP
Entry level
✓
$33.60
below the model level
Put wall
✓
$35.00
2026-11-20 expiry · chain of 2026-11-10
MACD
Context●
-0.47
below zero · still falling
RVolStatic
0.72×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
8.0%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$2.10
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2027-03-01
in 74 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file