Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) — Medical Care Facilities. Numbers-first dossier: valuation, distress risk, calibrated signal.

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ASTHpeers & supply-chain relationships

ASTH fair-value estimate

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Bid — × — AskUpdated Sep 25, 2026 · 4:00 PM ETVol 336.6K · 3-mo avg 528.6K

Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH)

ASTHAstrana Health, Inc.loading…
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QTick signal
0net
2 bull / 3 bear factors · balanced
Bull 4 pts·Bear 4 pts30d
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Market context—Sector read · not on fileCautionBalance sheet · Grey—PCE inflation days · not on fileOKNeutral tape · 10/100 · as of 2026-09-25
Smart entry
$36.19
basis · pivot low + s1 · as of 2026-09-25
Target exit zone
$37–38
center $37.60 · basis · daily pivot + round + sma 50 + vwap 50 · as of 2026-09-25
Implied move · 1 wk
±$3.37
9.3% · options-priced
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Pullback risk
In line
1.08× the norm · 85% saw a ≥10% dip · 63d · tape state: neutral · capped: at bottom zone (3/6 bottoming checks met)
Chart pattern
Golden cross
50d above 200d · bullish structure
Volume vs its own 20-session average0.81×
52-week range$18.08 – $51.60
Below high since 2017-73.3% · $136.01 high
Risk / reward0.29 : 1
Plan stop$32.16
Max pain$35.00 options cluster
RSI 1447.5 fires under 35 · fires near $33.37
Forensic flags1 review
Earnings multiple44.4× trailing · forward not on file
P/E vs its own past73rd pctile · 41.2× median
Free cash flow yield5.2% · of market value

Last session traded in line with its own normal, price up 5.6%. Over the last 20 sessions, 56% of the volume traded on days the stock closed lower.

Entry strategy · 10 triggers

2 of 6 aligned — not yet
RSI 14
●
47.5
fires under 35 · fires near $33.37
vs 50-day
✓
$37.91
below the line
Bollinger
●
$33.33
no lower pierce · fires near $32.69
VWAP 20
●
$36.21
above the rolling VWAP · fires near $36.19
Entry level
✓
$36.19
within 1% of model level
Put wall
●
$30.00
2026-10-16 expiry · chain of 2026-09-25
MACD
Context●
-0.18
below zero · rising toward the flip
RVolStatic
0.81×
in line with its own normal
Short int.Static
8.7%
short interest below 20%
ATRStatic
$2.01
14-session average true range
A checklist, not odds on a return: 4 of 6 usable price conditions have to line up. RSI, the 50-day average and the Bollinger band move with the price you set; the 20-day average traded price, the entry level and the busiest put strike stay fixed. MACD, RVol, Short int. and ATR are context only — they never count toward the total.
See the full case→
Next earnings
2026-11-05
in 29 sessions
Next dividend
No indicated yield
no forward dividend on file