Deep dive · NYSE: AAUC
Allied Gold Corporation stock analysis
Everything behind the call on Allied Gold Corporation. 6 sections, ordered the way risk stacks up: survival first, quality and price in the middle, context last. The Beacon gives you the read. This is where you check the work.
The five reads
Global tapeOverseas lean+0.41%
Tel AvivAAUC0.00%⏱TaiwanAAUC0.00%⏱FrankfurtA240+1.22%⏱
Where else this company trades. A closed venue shows its last close, marked ⏱ — not a live price. Overseas lean is the average move across the 3 overseas venues listed above, excluding the home listing — a read on overnight sentiment rather than a signal.
The bottom linestart hereAs of 2026-09-18
Chart pattern
Between the averages
The 50-day sits below the 200-day
50-day $21.86 · +4.8%
200-day $26.54 · -13.7%
200-day $26.54 · -13.7%
Earnings
In 47 days
4 Nov 2026
cohort P(beat) 61% · n=139,757
Dividend
0.00%
A rounding error against cash — this is a capital-gains position
Risk flags
2 on watch
5 checks run, 3 clear
beta 1.28 · vol 46% ann.
worst drawdown -47%
worst drawdown -47%
New to this? Every metric carries a plain-English read beside it, and an ⓘ next to a label opens the definition. Anything unfamiliar is also defined at the foot of the page under Glossary.
In one paragraphwhat the company actually does99 chars
Allied Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as gold mining company in Africa.
NYSE · USDGold Mining
$22.91+1.38 · +6.41%AH · vol 1.10M
52-week range↑ 57% off low · ↓ 28.9% off high
$14.60now $22.91$32.20
After-hours
$22.910.00%
Sep 18, 2026 · 4:08 PM ET
Quote Sep 18, 2026 · 3:53 PM ET
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
Tape 2026-09-17
Factors 2026-09-18
01
Survival & solvency
and 3 of 5 forensic checks clear.
↳ Plain EnglishBefore anything else: can this company pay its bills? These blocks check the balance sheet, whether your slice of ownership is being diluted, and whether the accounting looks honest.
Piotroski F-score
F 6/9WATCH
Piotroski F-score 6 of 9. Nine pass/fail tests covering profitability, leverage and operating efficiency; seven or more is strong.
Balance sheetSep 18, 2026
Solvency and liquidity ratios
Current ratioshort-term assets against short-term bills0.77×healthy >2
Debt / equityborrowings against shareholder capital0.42
Net cashcash on hand in excess of every borrowing$310.00M
Your ownership stake
Share-count growth vs peersHIGH DILUTION
89th pctile
Where this name's share-count growth ranks among peers. Lower is less dilutive.
Accounting forensicsSEC filings
Red-flag x-rayGRADE B
80 / 100
0 critical · 2 watch · 3 clear of 5 scored tests
Red-flag x-ray · every check, passes included
CheckStatusValueWhat it looks for
Bankruptcy distressWATCHZ 1.82Altman-Z in the Grey · fundamentals
Earnings manipulationCLEARM -3.06M-score in range · fundamentals
LeverageCLEARLTD/E 0.02long-term debt 0.02× equity · fundamentals
Profitability qualityWATCHF 6/9Piotroski F-score 6 of 9 · fundamentals
Filing forensicsCLEAR0 flagsno filing red flags on the latest 10-K · forensic
5 checks, 3 clear and 2 watch. The passes are shown because a score built from five checks means something different from one built from three.
02Refreshed · Sep 18, 2026FAIR · 51/100
Business quality
-4% net margin, -13% return on equity, +82% revenue growth, and capital earning 141% against a 11% cost.
↳ Plain EnglishMargins tell you how much of each sales dollar the company keeps. Return on capital tells you whether reinvesting that money creates value. Both are read against what the filings support, not against a target.
Quality score
51 / 100FAIR
Profitability, growth and balance strength scored separately, then blended.
ProfitabilityRefreshed · Sep 18, 2026
Net marginOF EVERY SALES DOLLAR
-3.9%
The share of revenue that survives every cost and becomes profit.
Gross marginPRICING POWER
38.0%
What is left of a sales dollar before overhead — the clearest read on pricing power.
Operating marginAFTER RUNNING COSTS
27.4%
What survives the cost of running the whole business.
Return on equityPER $1 OF EQUITY
-12.7%
Annual return on each dollar of shareholder equity.
ROIC − WACC spreadCREATES VALUE
130.4pp
Earns 141% on invested capital that costs about 11%. A positive spread means every retained dollar compounds rather than leaks.
Incremental ROIC (3y)ON NEW CAPITAL
391.7%
The return on capital put to work over the last three years — a sharper read than the trailing average, because it prices the newest decisions.
Growth & relative strength
Trailing return by period
1 month-7.4%
3 months-16.0%
6 months-30.6%
Year to date-6.8%
1 year+42.9%
Revenue growth (YoY)FAST
+82.4%
Revenue against the same period a year ago.
12-1 momentumEX LAST MONTH
+39.0%
Return over the last year excluding the most recent month — the standard momentum factor, which drops the short-term reversal.
Relative-strength rankBOTTOM 26%
26 / 100
Where this name's 3-month return against the S&P 500 ranks across the market — a quarter's standing, not the year's.
Around earnings
P(beat next quarter)COHORT BASE RATE
61%
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
Typical earnings moveData unavailableRealized move magnitudes are not published for this name yet — no measured print on file.
Reaction: beat vs missData unavailableThe beat-versus-miss reaction gap is not computed for this name — undetermined — needs ≥12 measured beats.
Consensus biasVALIDATED
Persistent
insufficient surprise history
Next reportIN 47 DAYS
4 Nov 2026
Reports amc · consensus EPS $1.04 · revenue 0.00
Dividends & income
Data unavailableThis company does not pay a dividend. There is no yield, payout ratio or ex-dividend date to show, and the return case rests entirely on capital gains.
Signal
Not an income position.
No dividend is declared, so nothing here contributes to total return except the price. That is a fact about the security, not a criticism of it.
Inventory ledger
Data unavailableNo inventory detail is tagged in this company's filings. The ledger needs the XBRL inventory components, which a business without physical goods does not report.
Segments & geography
Data unavailableRevenue by segment and region is not on file for this name, so product and geographic concentration are not shown.
Pattern reliability · platform-wide cohortSnapshot · Sep 18, 2026
Uptrend · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d47%-0.1%1,125,547
21d47%-0.2%529,218
63d48%-0.9%169,468
slope +0.17 over 40 bars
Three black crows · leans bearish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d51%+0.1%310,689
21d50%0.0%146,312
63d49%-0.4%46,362
three falling red bars
Rounding bottom · leans bullish
HorizonHigherMedianObservations
10d46%-0.4%129,044
21d44%-1.7%60,293
63d40%-6.7%19,146
gradual U-shaped base
0315-min delayed
Price & timing
Price $22.91, RSI 54.
↳ Plain EnglishA multiple is what the market charges for a dollar of this company's earnings, cash or revenue; the trend and the options tape say what the price is doing around it. Together they are the timing picture, not the quality one.
Trend
Mixed1 OF 3 AVERAGES
50-day $21.86 · 200-day $26.54. Price above both is the structural definition of an uptrend.
The setup right now15-min delayed
Price · 504 sessions2024-09-13 → 2026-09-17
price50-day200-day
How to read this
Up 6.41% on the session.
Follow the solid line: each point is a session close. Compare it to the 50-day average — while price stays above it the short-term trend is up, and a drop below is the first structural warning.
Momentum (RSI-14)COOL
54
030 oversold70 hot100
Where momentum sits on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold; the middle says the move has room either way.
Typical day (ATR-14)±4.0%
$0.91
The average true range — how far this stock moves on an ordinary day. It sets the scale a stop has to clear.
MACDBELOW SIGNAL
-0.19
The short-term trend against its own signal line. The sign is the read; the size is not a target.
Bollinger position49% OF RANGE
Mid band
Where price sits inside its own volatility band. The edges are where a move is stretched, not where it reverses.
20-day VWAPPRICE BELOW
$23.02
The volume-weighted average of the last month. Price above it means recent buyers are, on average, in profit.
Chandelier exitLONG INTACT
$21.72
A volatility-based trailing stop, set a few average ranges below the recent high.
4 Nov 2026 · in 47 daysNext earningsThe next scheduled catalyst. The forward guide usually moves the tape more than the printed number. Date as the vendor last stated it on 9 Aug; companies confirm about three weeks ahead, so it can still move.
2026-09-25 · in 7 daysConsumer SentimentA scheduled macro release. It moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Setup & oddsNightly
Pullback riskoverstretch read
Elevated1.07× segment rate · n=11,906
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 85% of cases (n=11,906).
Overstretchvs the 20-day mean
-1.5σ
How many standard deviations price sits from its 20-day mean. Beyond 2σ is genuinely stretched; inside it is ordinary.
Bottom zoneif it breaks down
$20 – $213 supports
Where prior demand appeared: S1 at $21.29, Pivot low at $20.82, Pivot low at $20.12.
Slide scorefalling-knife check
25 / 100Neutral
A composite of consecutive down days, gap risk and volume expansion. Low means any decline is orderly.
Signal
The odds lean, the stretch qualifies it.
Not enough fundamental coverage to score this name's red-flag cohort — no 12-month odds shown.
Valuation
Net cash per shareCASH BACKING
$2.49
Cash less every borrowing, per share. It is the part of the price that is not a claim on future profits.
Multiples
Price / salesprice against revenue, before any of it becomes profit2.1×
Price / bookprice against the accounting value of the assets7.0×
EV / EBITDAthe multiple an acquirer would pay7.9×
EV / free cash flowenterprise value against the cash the business throws off31.1×
FCF yieldfree cash flow per dollar of market value2.87%
2 of the 5 priced multiples above sit in the richer half of its band. Each priced multiple is read against this stock's own history where a five-year range is on file, so the question is whether today is dear for this name rather than for the market. The multiples are computed separately from the quote above and are not re-priced as it moves, so they can lag it.
Price horizon & timingSep 17, 2026
Entryzone of pivot low + S1
$21.42Target reached
Where the composer's entry sits, on its own stated basis.
TargetDaily pivot + round + sma 50
$21.88$22–$22
A zone, not a price. It is where the composer expects supply, not a forecast.
StopTucked under the entry zone
$19.44risk $1.98/sh
The level that says the setup is wrong, on the basis named beside it.
Risk / rewardtarget vs stop
0.23:1set at the close before
The price has already reached the target, so no reward is left on these levels; this is the ratio the composer set at the close before, not one on offer now.
Measure from a price$
To the 50-day
-4.6%
short-term trend line · $21.86
To the 200-day
+15.9%
primary trend line · $26.54
To the composer's target
-4.5%
Daily pivot + round + sma 50 · set Sep 17, 2026 · $21.88
To the composer's stop
-15.2%
Tucked under the entry zone · set Sep 17, 2026 · $19.44
To the 52-week high
+40.5%
highest print of the past year · $32.20
To the 52-week low
-36.3%
lowest print of the past year · $14.60
A typical day (ATR)
$22.00 – $23.82
±$0.91 average true range
Type any price to re-measure every distance from it. Each row is a level this page already states somewhere else, so nothing here is a new number — and none of it is a recommendation to trade at that price.
Signal
Less reward than risk at this level.
Entry $21.42 · stop $19.44 · target $21.88, a 0.23:1 ratio. The composer flagged: fair-value reference, low reward to risk.
Gamma map
Data unavailableThis name has no listed options chain, so there is no dealer gamma to map. Regime, flip level, walls and the implied move all need a chain to exist.
Options tape
Data unavailableNo options chain is connected for this ticker. Max pain, the put/call ratio, the implied move and the open-interest ladder all need the chain feed.
0413F quarterly · Form 4 dailyNET SIGNAL 0
Ownership & flow
Institutions hold 67%, short interest is 3.97% of float.
↳ Plain EnglishWho is buying and selling, and what they had to disclose. Institutions file 13F 45 days after quarter end, executives file Form 4 within two days, and Congress discloses under the STOCK Act with a 30–45 day legal lag. Every one of those is a look backwards.
Institutional ownership
66.8%INSTITUTIONALLY HELD
The share held by 13F filers. It describes last quarter's positioning, not today's — filings land up to 45 days after quarter end.
The QTick signal
Data unavailableNo factor in the model scored for this name, so there is no net signal to show. The signal appears once the nightly factor run covers it.
Cross-category read
Data unavailableFewer independent evidence families are ready than the engine's minimum, so there is nothing to check for agreement. A cross-category read over two categories is not a read.
Wall Street
Data unavailableNo sell-side firm publishes research on this name. There is no consensus rating, no price target and no estimate revisions to weigh — for a company this size that is the norm rather than a gap in our data.
Who owns it13F quarterly · Form 4 daily
Insider ownershipOFFICERS & DIRECTORS
14.4%
The share held by the people running the company.
Short interest (float)LIGHT
3.97%
Rising — shares short changed +15.2% over 30 days. There is no short base to squeeze here.
Free float75% OF SHARES
93.14M
Shares actually available to trade, excluding insider and restricted holdings.
Dollar volume (ADV)68th PCTILE
$14.61M/day
Average dollars traded per day, and where that ranks cross-sectionally. Thin liquidity is a cost you pay on the way out, not just on the way in.
Borrow feeData unavailableWe do not license securities-lending data, so the annualized cost of borrowing shares to short is not something we can show. Short interest and days-to-cover above are the closest read we can source.
The story · news & sentimentRolling window
Why it moved todayNONE
+6.41%
AAUC rose +6.41% in after-hours trading — no identified catalyst in our coverage.
Congress
Data unavailableNo congressional trades in this name have been disclosed under the STOCK Act. Lawmakers' disclosed trades cluster heavily in large caps, so an empty list is the usual state.
0510 graded callsHIGH VOLATILITY
Risk & track record
Beta 1.28, 46% annual volatility, a -47% worst drawdown, and 3 of 8 risk surfaces clear.
↳ Plain EnglishWhat owning it does to a portfolio, what the model votes against, and how often our own calls have been right. Every call is graded when it resolves, and the ones still open stay visible.
A very bad day (EVT)
−14.4%1-IN-200 DAY
Fitted to the tail of the return distribution rather than assuming a bell curve. Size the position so a day like this is survivable.
What it does to a portfolio5-year window
Beyond the tail (ES)1-IN-1,000 DAY
−39.0%
The average loss on a 1-in-1,000 day or worse — deeper in the tail than the 1-in-200 figure above and further than the measured history reaches, so it reads as the scale of a crash, not a forecast of one.
Tail understatementHEAVY TAIL
1.8×
A normal-curve estimate understates this name's worst days by about 1.8×, so volatility alone is the wrong risk measure for it.
Max drawdownWORST FALL
-46.8%
The deepest peak-to-trough fall in the measured window. Only hold a position you can watch do this.
Beta (vs the market)IN LINE
1.28
Moves about 1.3× the market over the past year.
Annualized volatilityELEVATED
46%
How far it swings over a year, from its own realized returns.
Tactical phaseNIGHTLY READ
Neutral
Selling pressure6
Buying pressure14
Overheat11
State: neutral — No dominant short-horizon pressure in the tape.
What votes against
Data unavailableNo factor in the model currently votes against this name. That is a statement about the model's inputs today, not a claim that nothing could go wrong.
Failure modes · by company type
Data unavailableFailure modes are routed per company type, and only the bank-run and crypto-treasury rulebooks are validated so far. This name routes as growth, so there is no cohort-specific checklist to run. A generic list would read as analysis without being any.
The risk case · why not to buy8 surfaces · nightly
Suggested position capmax defensible size
2.2%tail cap binds
max defensible size 2.2% - tail binds
Avoid score6-month distress
10.0%1.2× its cohort · mid-volume names
Observational 6-month large-drawdown risk ranking — not a forecast, not alpha. Historical distress rate for this mid-volume names segment: 8.7%. This name reads 1.1× that base rate.
LowDistress screenThe distress model did not score this name in the latest run, so this surface is unmeasured rather than clear.Not scored
MedPosition size, not conviction, is the binding constrainthalf-Kelly 27.2% · tail cap 2.2% · category cap 54.6%. The tail cap binds, so 2.2% is the number (n=92,785). We show which one binds rather than the friendliest.Sizing
LowLottery-ticket behaviourIts best 21-day return sits at 10.7% against a 10.8% cohort 90th-percentile threshold — below the line where forward returns have historically turned negative.Behaviour
LowCash runwayNon-burner: catastrophe rate 6.1% (n=297414).Solvency
LowPost-earnings driftNo measured earnings reaction on file, so the drift surface is unmeasured.Not scored
LowDividend riskNot scored for this name.Not scored
LowRestatement historyFiling history is not deep enough to check for restatements.Not scored
LowCrowded shortNot in a warn state: the crowded-short model only publishes when short interest and thin liquidity coincide, and neither condition is met here.Not scored
Signal
3 of 8 surfaces clear.
8 surfaces checked, 3 clear. The binding constraint is position size — the tail cap is the one that binds. Each row states which surface it is and what it measured; a surface that could not be scored says so rather than counting as clear.
Who should skip it
Skip it if any of these is you
You can't sit through -47%
That is this name's deepest measured fall, on 46% annualized volatility. A drawdown of that size is normal here, not exceptional.
You want income
A 0.00% yield is a rounding error against cash. This is a capital-gains position.
You'd size it like a core holding
The binding cap is 2.2% of a portfolio. Above that the tail stops being survivable.
Our track record10 resolved
Track recordBUILDING IN THE OPEN
22 logged
22 calls logged on this name, 10 resolved so far. Calls are logged the moment they are made, so the open ones are public before anyone knows how they turn out, and a hit-rate is not published until enough of them resolve.
Calls on AAUCTHIS NAME
22
This name's own call count. Too few have resolved to publish a rate over them, so none is shown rather than a rate over 10.
0610-K disclosed linksGOLD MINING
The wider context
5 mapped peers, 1 connection.
↳ Plain EnglishCompanies do not trade alone. This is the peer set, the supply chain that has to deliver, and the macro variables that move the stock regardless of company news.
Rate sensitivity
+2.2% per +1ppINSUFFICIENT
This is the SECTOR prior, not a measurement of this name — the regression did not clear its own bar. The verdict beside it (neutral) comes from the prior too, so the two agree by construction rather than by evidence.
Versus peersLatest session
Peer set · 5 names
SymbolRelationshipPriceSession
NEMPeer$123.41-0.79%
NEMCLPeer$128.000.00%
AEMPeer$199.49-0.93%
BPeer$43.33-0.82%
WPMPeer$150.87-0.87%
The mapped peer set and how each traded in the latest session. A peer moving with this name says the move is the sector's; one moving against it says the move is this company's.
Time machineHistory from 2024-08-15
Signal
1 of 3 backward windows are positive.
Look-back returns describe what happened, not what is likely. They are here to set the scale a future move would be measured on.
Macro driversRolling window
Next macro catalystIN 7 DAYS
Consumer Sentiment
2026-09-25. A scheduled release that moves this stock independently of anything the company does.
Events · what moves this stockSep 16, 2026
Initial jobless claimsUsually hurts when more people file for benefits than expected
A slowing economy uses less steel, copper and chemicals.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day -0.2% · A week later +0.4% · Two weeks later +1.1% · Rose on 53 of 106 report days
Across the last 106 Initial jobless claims reports since Aug 22, 2024, AAUC moved -0.2% on average on the day and was 1.1% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
FOMC decisionUsually hurts when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected
Gold pays no interest, so it loses appeal when rates rise and the dollar strengthens.
Typical for the Gold Mining industry
On the day -0.6% · A week later +1.1% · Two weeks later +3.4% · Rose on 13 of 24 report days
Across the last 24 FOMC decision reports since Aug 31, 2024, AAUC moved -0.6% on average on the day and was 3.4% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Housing startsUsually helps when more homes are started than expected
Lumber, cement and gravel.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +1.2% · A week later +0.1% · Two weeks later +1.3% · Rose on 19 of 24 report days
Across the last 24 Housing starts reports since Sep 20, 2024, AAUC moved +1.2% on average on the day and was 1.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.1% on those days.
Industrial productionUsually helps when factory output comes in stronger than expected
More building and manufacturing means more demand for raw materials.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day -0.1% · A week later -0.5% · Two weeks later -0.1% · Rose on 12 of 24 report days
Across the last 24 Industrial production reports since Sep 15, 2024, AAUC moved -0.1% on average on the day and was 0.1% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.1% on those days.
Job openings (JOLTS) is due in 11 days.
Job openings (JOLTS)Usually helps when job openings come in higher than expectedA busy economy uses more steel, copper and chemicals.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.5% · A week later +2.9% · Two weeks later +3.3% · Rose on 14 of 24 report days
Across the last 24 Job openings (JOLTS) reports since Sep 4, 2024, AAUC moved +0.5% on average on the day and was 3.3% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved 0.0% on those days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) is due in 14 days.
Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)Usually helps when hiring comes in stronger than expectedA busy economy uses more steel, copper and chemicals.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.4% · A week later +2.7% · Two weeks later +3.7% · Rose on 14 of 24 report days
Across the last 24 Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) reports since Sep 5, 2024, AAUC moved +0.4% on average on the day and was 3.7% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.2% on those days.
Unemployment rate is due in 14 days.
Unemployment rateUsually hurts when unemployment rises more than expectedA slowing economy uses less steel, copper and chemicals.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day +0.3% · A week later +2.1% · Two weeks later +3.2% · Rose on 13 of 23 report days
Across the last 23 Unemployment rate reports since Sep 5, 2024, AAUC moved +0.3% on average on the day and was 3.2% higher two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved -0.2% on those days.
GDP (advance estimate)Usually helps when the economy grows faster than expected
More building and manufacturing means more demand for raw materials.
Typical for the Basic Materials sector
On the day -1.5% · A week later -1.2% · Two weeks later -1.8% · Rose on 2 of 8 report days
Across the last 8 GDP (advance estimate) reports since Oct 27, 2024, AAUC moved -1.5% on average on the day and was 1.8% lower two weeks later. The S&P 500 moved +0.2% on those days.
Customer momentum
Data unavailableCustomer momentum needs listed customers that disclose a revenue dependence on this company, and none is on file. The connections below are a different map: competitors and partners, most of them curated rather than filed.
Connections1 link · none confirmed
Direct connections · 1 edge
CompanyRelationSessionProvenance
GOLD · Competitorcompetitor-3.01%Rumored · manual
0 of 1 edge is named in a filing; the rest come from reporting we have not matched to one yet, and are labelled as such.
Suppliers, customers & competitors
Named competitors
GOLDCompetitorcompetitor
Glossary · every term on this page
Survival
Altman Z
Bankruptcy-risk score. Above 3.0 is the safe band.
Piotroski F
Nine pass/fail health tests; 7 or more is strong.
Beneish M
Accrual and growth pattern screen. Clear below −2.22, watch to −1.78, elevated above; a year of very fast revenue growth lifts it by construction.
Merton DTD
Standard deviations of asset value between the company and its debt.
EDF
Default frequency calibrated on what actually happened to similar names.
Price & tape
RSI-14
Momentum gauge 0–100. Above 70 is overbought, below 30 oversold.
ATR
Average true range — the size of a typical day.
VWAP
20-day volume-weighted average price — the average paid over the last month; the page shows no intraday VWAP.
Supertrend
A trend-following stop line. A close through it flips the read.
Chandelier
A trailing stop set a few average ranges below the recent high.
Options & flow
Gamma / GEX
Dealer hedging pressure. Negative gamma amplifies moves both ways.
Call / put wall
The strikes with the heaviest open interest; they act as ceiling and floor.
Max pain
The strike where most options expire worthless.
13F · Form 4
Institutional filings, 45 days after quarter end. Insider trades, within two days.
Scoring
Composite signal
Independent factors scored and netted into one number.
Hit-rate
Share of past calls that resolved in the direction stated.
Brier score
Calibration measure. Lower means stated probabilities track reality.
HHI
Concentration 0–10,000. Above 2,500 means one segment carries the company.
EVT
Fits the tail rather than assuming a bell curve, so bad days are not understated.