Decision point · Feb 8, 2023Where does it land in 42 trading days?
Spread 10 chips across the five bands. Conviction pays and costs.
> +43.3%+12.7% to +43.3%−11.3% to +12.7%−30.2% to −11.3%< −30.2%TODAY
Level141.0
DateFeb 8, 2023
Window42 trading days
Round—
TechnologyName and era withheld. The bands are this tape's own volatility.
What was true at this bar
A mega cap at the time.
Reported earnings 56 sessions ago, and missed — close to consensus.
A holder crossed 5% of it in the run-up and had to file.
Down hardworse than −30.2%
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Down−30.2% to −11.3%
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Flat−11.3% to +12.7%
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Up+12.7% to +43.3%
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Up hardbetter than +43.3%
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10 of 10 chips still in hand
How this one is scored
1The tape is a real stock's history with the name and era stripped out. It stops dead on the decision point above.
2Spread 10 chips across the five bands. The chips are your probabilities — 6 on one band says you think it is 60% likely.
3The bands are set by this tape's own volatility, not fixed percentages: one standard deviation of its move over 42 days is 27.1%.
4All 10 chips on the right band scores 100. An even spread scores 60 every time. All 10 on a wrong band scores 0.
55 tapes a day, the same five for everyone. Conviction is the only way to beat the field, and the only way to lose badly to it.
Real daily closes, rebased and anonymised until the reveal. The bands come from each tape's own volatility and every spread is scored on the server — paper points only.