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Events · who it helps and who it hurts

Fed Chair speech (Jackson Hole, testimony, major venue)

A major speech by the Fed Chair: Jackson Hole, testimony to Congress, or a big venue.

Not on our calendar

The reads below are for when the Fed sounds more hawkish than expected. Expect the opposite when the Fed sounds more dovish than expected.

Sectors

Basic MaterialsUsually hurtsA hawkish Fed lifts the dollar, which makes dollar-priced metals dearer for foreign buyers.
Communication ServicesUsually hurtsGrowth-priced media and internet companies fall when rates stay high.
Consumer CyclicalUsually hurtsCostlier car loans, mortgages and credit cards mean less consumer spending.
IndustrialsUsually hurtsCostlier financing slows factory and equipment orders.
Real EstateUsually hurtsProperty companies borrow heavily; higher rates raise their costs and lower building values.
TechnologyUsually hurtsHigher rates for longer hit tech hardest, because so much of its value is profits years away.
UtilitiesUsually hurtsUtilities trade like bonds and fall when the Fed signals higher rates.
Consumer DefensiveLittle effectEveryday essentials sell either way.
EnergyLittle effectOil prices matter more than rates for energy companies; little reaction.
Financial ServicesLittle effectBanks earn more on loans when rates stay high, but a flatter curve and growth worries offset it; roughly a wash on the day.
HealthcareLittle effectHealthcare demand does not depend on rates.

Where each sector’s relative strength sits this week is on the rotation board.

Industries that behave differently from their sector

Banks - DiversifiedUsually helpsBig banks earn more on loans as rates rise.
GoldUsually hurtsGold pays no interest, so it loses appeal when rates rise and the dollar strengthens.
Insurance - LifeUsually helpsLife insurers earn more on the bonds they hold as rates rise.
REIT - MortgageUsually hurtsMortgage holdings lose value the moment rates jump.
Residential ConstructionUsually hurtsMortgage rates move within the hour and price buyers out.
Software - ApplicationUsually hurtsSoftware profits are mostly far in the future and worth less at higher rates.
SolarUsually hurtsSolar projects are financed with debt; higher rates make them harder to fund.
Utilities - RenewableUsually hurtsRenewable projects are built on borrowed money; higher rates hurt.
Banks - RegionalLittle effectSmaller banks earn more on loans but pay more on deposits and lose on bonds; a wash.

Related events

Fed Chair speech (Jackson Hole, testimony, major venue): who it helps and hurts · QTick