Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY) — $82.46 +0.63%. Numbers-first dossier covering valuation, distress risk, and calibrated signal.

How we compute this

TICK
QT
/ SKY
SKYNYSEbullHYPER-GROWTHjudged on execution & valuation

Champion Homes, Inc. ·

After hours
$71.80
-10.15 (-12.39%)
At close
$82.46
+0.63%
Jun 23, 2026 · 10:34 AM ET · 15-min delayed
Mkt cap$3.93B
P/E · fwd19.6 · 17.8
Div yield
Beta 1y
Volume44.5K0.07× avg
52-wk range -16.8%5999
The five reads
Pro · trial
9 days left in your Pro trial — then you lose the forensic layer on SKY:
red-flag scannergamma mapdilution radarsupply-chain map
At a glance the decision-relevant reads, first
GLOBAL TAPE
No overseas listings — SKY trades on its home exchange only.
Track record · free & ungated
We grade our price-band calls in public

Each forward price band is logged the day it's set and scored when it resolves — misses included. None are due yet, so there's no hit-rate to show: this builds in the open, not behind the paywall.

3
bands logged
0
resolved so far
Building
status
The calibration ledger stays free, always — a track record can't sit behind a paywall.

Price action

Price & quote

Live quote refreshed every 15 minutes against the full daily snapshot.

The readHolding bidfact

Where the price sits inside today's range and its 52-week range, plus how it's performed over time. This is the raw quote — the same number everywhere, just faster.

NaNNaNNaNNaNNaN
Tap & drag the chart for daily OHLCV · 0 sessions · prev close $81.95 (dashed)
Open
$73.47
Prev close
$81.95
Volume
44.5K
avg 634.2K
Rel. volume
0.07×
below normal
Market cap
$3.93B
Shares out
54.89M
float 54.00M
Day range
$70.64$73.81
52-week range
$59.44$99.17
-16.8% from high+38.7% above low

The QTick signal

QTick proprietary signal

A transparent point tally — bull evidence minus bear evidence — read over ~30 days. Faster factors time the swing; slower ones (quality, 13F, forensics) weigh in as longer-horizon context. A model-based prior, not advice.

~30-day swing read · graded vs S&Puncalibrated prior · track record buildingstrength is the tally magnitude, not a probability
Price-factor lean cohort-relative · momentum + low-vol
Price-factor lean — not shown at this market cap (these factors carry no validated edge above small-cap).
Where this is validated: survivorship-free factor study (micro/small caps only), |t|>3.2. Cohort-relative ranking, not a price forecast or buy/sell advice. Calibration tracked live.
Bullish
+6
net · moderate
Factor breakdown 8 factors · signed points sum to net +6
Analyst moves90d
Earnings4 quarters+3 pts
latest EPS beat by 10%
Insider flow120d
Estimate revisionsWeeks
Sentiment1–30d
Longer-horizon context weighs the read · not a 30-day timing call
Institutional (13F)Latest 13F+1 pts
1 institutional holder(s) added/opened last quarter
Quality / valueTTM+2 pts
strong Piotroski F-score (8/9)
Filing forensicsLatest FY
Risk flagsDaily
Net tally
+6
6 bull − 0 bear
Factors agreeing
3↑ 0↓
of 9 tracked
Read strength
moderate
30d horizon
Strongest factor
Earnings
+3 pts
Model
QTick Engine
SKY track record
Building
0 of 3 resolved
Forensic flags filing red flags · backtested edge where shown
Revenue-timing languagerevenue-recognition timing language worth watching
Territory — competitor / supplier graph
Section readQTICK net read
n/a
Bullish
uncalibrated prior · not a forecast
Our overall read, built from every factor above and shown with the full breakdown. Research, never advice.

Red-Flag X-Ray

Accounting quality · red-flag scan

One integrity score (0–100) from a set of accounting checks that look for red flags. Higher is safer — and we show the checks it passed, not just the ones it failed.

75
/ 100
Integrity score
B
0 critical · 1 watch · 1 clear of 2 scored tests
1 clear1 watch0 critical3 n/a
Test battery
!
5 forensic tests · 1 passed clean · 1 flagged for watch
n/a
Bankruptcy distressn/a
Altman-Z not available
n/a
Earnings manipulationn/a
Beneish-M not available
n/a
Leveragen/a
Debt/equity not available
Clear
Profitability qualityF 8/9
Piotroski F-score 8 of 9
!Watch
Filing forensics1 flag(s)
1 filing red flag(s) on the latest 10-K
How we test · 7 forensic testsA clear result ships as openly as a flag — and the tests that don't fire are published in full. No survivorship bias.
Share dilution / SBC creepFires when shares outstanding rise materially or stock-based comp outpaces buybacks.
Distress (Altman-Z, negative equity)Fires on balance-sheet fragility. For banks we substitute regulatory capital (CET1).
Margin trajectoryFires on multi-quarter gross / operating margin erosion.
Going-concern languageNLP scan of filings for material-doubt or going-concern wording.
Filing timelinessFires on late / NT (non-timely) filings and restatements.
Insider selling into strengthFires on discretionary insider sells during price strength; 10b5-1 plans down-weighted.
Analyst-downgrade momentumFires on clusters of net downgrades and target cuts.
Section readRed-Flag X-Ray
B
integrity 0–100 · 7-test battery
One integrity score (0–100) from a set of accounting checks. 80+ is clean; a 'watch' item is minor; a 'critical' flag is serious.

Odds & pullback risk

Setup & odds

Which way the next move is more likely to go — and how overstretched the price looks right now.

The readSkews upsidewhere it sitsuncalibrated prior · not a forecast

How the likely upside compares with the downside, and how stretched the price is — odds, not timing.

Upside vs downside · 12m
Upside 62.1%37.9% Downside
Skew favours upside · base rate 50/50
Expected move · 1wk±—
Upside target$83.80 +1.6% · level, not a call
Invalidation / stop$80.97 -1.8% · level, not a call
Reward : risk0.9 : 1
BullClose above $84 opens continuation.
BaseChop between stop and target into the next catalyst.
BearA break of $81 invalidates the setup.
Pullback risk
LowElevatedHigh
Historically, mid names in this tape state saw a ≥10% pullback within 63 trading days in 86% of cases (n=4,045).
1.10×the segment norm — 86% saw a ≥10% pullback within 63dn=4,045 · observational
Conditioned onneutral · mid vol · pos momentum the matched historical cell
  • 1.10× the mid unconditional rate
  • tape state: neutral
  • price 1.6σ from its 20-day mean
In detail
How to read the odds
This is an empirical base rate: across 25 years of point-in-time history, stocks in this same state (segment, tape phase, volatility, momentum) pulled back this often. The multiple against the segment norm is the comparable number — recent-era levels run hot versus the long grid, so weight the multiple over the bare %. It doesn't predict timing. Research, never advice.

Trend & technicals

The trend read
Data not available.
ProPattern outcomes · derived analysisunlocked

Do these patterns even work?

Derived · what patterns actually did

Every charting site detects the pattern. We publish what happened next — the forward win-rate and sample size at each horizon, including the famous patterns that historically meant nothing.

The readForward win-rates, with sample sizewhere it sits

How often each chart pattern was actually followed by a gain, and how many past cases that's based on — including famous ones that didn't work.

Each bar is the win-rate — how often the price was higher that many days after the pattern appeared. The line marks 50%, a coin flip: green beats it, red is worse than chance.
Pattern10-day21-day63-day
DowntrendBelow a coin flip
forward win-rate46.6%n=732,463
forward win-rate47.5%n=722,035
forward win-rate48.5%n=658,557
slope -0.12 over 40 bars
Double topBarely beats chance
forward win-rate49.2%n=720,496
forward win-rate50.7%n=708,499
forward win-rate53.2%n=663,509
two peaks ≈ equal — reversal if neckline breaks
Inverse head and shouldersBelow a coin flip
forward win-rate48.4%n=293,281
forward win-rate49.4%n=288,262
forward win-rate52.0%n=269,260
low below two ≈-equal shoulders — bullish reversal
Ascending triangleBarely beats chance
forward win-rate49.8%n=370,453
forward win-rate51.2%n=363,726
forward win-rate54.3%n=342,517
flat resistance, rising support
Rsi overboughtBelow a coin flip
forward win-rate38.8%n=368,820
forward win-rate42.3%n=362,801
forward win-rate46.1%n=336,191
RSI 82 ≥ 70
In detail
Why we show you the losers
Famous reversal signals like a bullish engulfing have historically closed higher less than half the time at short horizons — below a coin flip. We publish the win-rate and the sample size on every cohort, so a 42-case base rate never masquerades as an 8,500-case one. Objective base rates, not forecasts.

Momentum

Is it leading?
Data not available.

Risk

How bumpy
Data not available.

Failure modes

QTick
Data not available.
ProMacro sensitivity · derived analysisunlocked

How rates push this name

Derived · rates & regime

The 10-year yield is public. Its measured pull on this specific stock — and how it trades around the macro calendar — is the derived layer.

The readFalls with rateswhere it sitsrate-beta · winsorized

How much this stock actually moves when interest rates move, and how it behaves around big economic releases.

Sensitivity to 10Y yield
Per +1% in the 10Y yield-110.5%
120+12
Rates are a Falls with rates for this name
Observations491 rolling window
Fit · r²n/a
OLS of daily returns on changes in FRED DGS10 over 491 observations. Low-confidence betas (short N or weak r²) defer to a sector prior rather than print a spurious number.
Behaviour around the macro calendar
CPI · vs a typical day0.0×
NFP · vs a typical day0.0×
PCE · vs a typical day0.0×
× = how much more this stock moves on each release day vs a normal day. Amber = outsized (≥1.4×). Context, not a directional call.
Volatility regime
GARCH vol · annualized
Vol percentile · 1yn/a

Valuation

Valuation

Is the stock cheap or expensive? Each multiple is graded and explained in plain English.

The readFairwhere it sitsmultiple percentile vs S&P

Price against earnings, sales, book value and cash flow. We mark the measures that don't apply rather than fake them.

Fairly valuedMultiples sit roughly in line with the business's growth and quality — neither a bargain nor expensive.
What you pay for earnings
P/E (trailing)Price ÷ last 12 months of profit19.6×Fair
Forward P/EPrice ÷ next year's expected profit17.8×Fair
PEG ratioP/E adjusted for growth — under 1 is cheap2.23Rich
Earnings yieldProfit as a % of price, like a bond yield5.11%Fair
Dividend yieldThis company pays no dividendNone
What you pay for the business
Price / SalesPrice ÷ annual revenue—×n/a
Price / BookPrice ÷ net assets on the books—×n/a
EV / EBITDAWhole-company value ÷ operating cash earningsn/an/a
Price / FCFPrice ÷ free cash flow generatedn/an/a
EV/EBITDA and P/FCF need positive operating cash earnings to mean anything (and don't apply to banks, where leverage is the product) — so we mark them n/a rather than print a misleading number.
Peers today territory performance, for valuation context
Section readValuation
Fair
multiple percentile vs S&P
Price against earnings, sales, book value and cash flow. We mark the measures that don't apply rather than fake them.

Fundamentals

The business
Data not available.
ProCredit & safety · derived analysisunlocked

Distance from insolvency

Derived · structural default

Not the debt total — the model-implied distance from default. A two-equation structural model solved per name, plus a cross-sectional solvency rank.

The readwhere it sitspercentile vs solvency universe

How far the company sits from real financial distress, plus how it ranks against peers — more than a debt total tells you.

n/a
σ to default
n/amodel-implied probability of default
Validated structural flags
0/4
SafeGreyDistressAltman n/a
Model-implied, not a credit rating.It estimates how far the company's assets would have to fall before it couldn't cover its debts, using a standard model (Merton). Higher is safer. (r = n/a, T = 1y, asset vol from )
Distance-to-default band
distress · 0cautionsafe8σ+
Altman solvency — peer rank
Not applicable. Altman Z-Score isn't defined for this business type. The Merton dial above still resolves.
Forensic accounting
.

Dilution radar

QTick
Data not available.

Analyst & estimates

The Street
Data not available.
ProEarnings bias · derived analysisunlocked

How this name behaves into the print

Earnings habit

The street's guidance habit, the beat streak graded against names with the same profile, and what the tape does on good news.

The readMixed habitwhere it sitsvalidated base rates · graded out-of-time

Whether the street sandbags this name, how often a beat streak like this persists (with its sample size), and what the tape does with good news.

62%of names with this beat profile beat againn=100,632 · observational
Consensus habit · trailing 8 quarters
Guidance habitinsufficient surprise history
insufficient history (n=0 < 4)
62%of names that had this beat profile went on to beat again (cohort record, not this stock alone)n=100,632 · observational
insufficient history for a bucket — pooled base rate
survivor-tilted universe (currently-listed names; large-cap-skewed coverage)
What the tape does with it
Post-earnings tape no measured announcement reactions on file yet
Implied vs realized move insufficient options history
In detail
How to read the habit
The beat probability is an empirical base rate — names with this trailing profile beat again that share of the time, graded out-of-time against climatology. It is a cohort fact, not a forecast of this specific print. Research, never advice.

Smart money & positioning

Smart money

Who holds it, how options lean, and the most recent insider, congressional and 13F transactions.

The readwhere it sitspositioning band · not a vote

Who owns it and what insiders and big funds are doing. Steady buying reads positive; heavy selling reads cautious.

Holders
Institutional1.1%
Insider0.0%
Institutional flow
Fund concentration
Activist stakeNone on file
Insider & short
Insider 90d net
10b5-1 vs discretionaryscheduledMostly programmatic
Short interest · %float0.1%
Short interest · 30d Δ
Options positioning
Put/call · OI
Put/call · volume
Implied movenext exp.±—
IV skew (25Δ)
In detail
What positioning is whispering
Institutional flow data unavailable.
Recent transactions Form 4 + congressional
FilerSourceActionValueDate
LYALL JONATHAN WADEEVP Sales/Business DevelopmentInsiderSell3685031 Mar
KIMMELL JOSEPH A.EVP, OperationsInsiderSell4395931 Mar
Burkhardt Timothy A.VP & ControllerInsiderSell2894331 Mar
Hough Laurie M.OtherInsiderSell9132831 Mar
Larson Timothy MarkPresident & CEOInsiderSell7638531 Mar
13F gurus · last quarter
Renaissance TechnologiesAdded+0.0M sh · $1M
ProSmart-money flow · derived analysisunlocked

Conviction, not just transactions

Derived · who's actually buying

Anyone can list the filings. We weight insider buys by cluster and seniority into a conviction intensity, and read institutional footprint as a velocity.

The readFunds trimmingwhere it sitsintensity, not a probability

Insider buys, weighted by how senior the buyer is and whether several buy at once — plus how fast big funds are moving in or out.

Insider conviction intensity
Clustered exec buys · n/an/a / 18.44
018.44
Intensity index — explicitly not a probability
Distinct exec buyers
n/a
Buy clusters · last 90d
90d agotoday
Institutional footprint · QoQ
+1new fundsexited−3
Net registered funds -2 this quarter
Institutional velocityTrimming
In detail
What the flow is saying
No clustered exec buying this window — conviction reads low. Funds are trimming: a net -2 registered holders quarter-over-quarter. Conviction is intensity, not a forecast.

Options

Dealer plumbing
Data not available.

Gamma map

QTick
Data not available.
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Peers & supply chain

Territory · peers & supply chain

The names in this stock's orbit — how each is trading today, and how they wire together as suppliers, customers and competitors.

The readTracking peersfact

How nearby companies are trading. Moving with them is a sector story; breaking away is specific to this stock.

TickerRelationshipTodayRelative move
SKYThis stock+0.63%
In detail
Outpacing its peers
SKY is +0.6% ahead of the peer average (0.00%). Divergence from the group is where the stock-specific signal lives.
Supply map how the territory wires together
No mapped supplier, customer or competitor links for SKY yet.

Customer momentum

The customer chain
Data not available.

News & social

The story
Data not available.

What this name did from here

Time machine

Each look-back point: the price then, the move to today, and what was going on — earnings, corporate events, news flow.

The readHigher than a year agofact

The price at each look-back point and the move to today, with what was happening at the time — the per-ticker face of the track record.

Look-backs · vs $71.04 today
3 months ago$93.48 -24.0% to today
6 months ago$85.28 -16.7% to today
1 year ago$65.40 +8.6% to today
3 years ago$60.43 +17.6% to today
history starts 2023-06-01
In detail
Why we show the rear-view mirror
Every number on this page gets graded by what happens next. The time machine is the same idea pointed backwards: the state of this name at each past date and the move that followed, for any symbol — not a curated highlight reel.

Why not to buy

The case against
Data not available.

Calibration scorecard

Auditable track record

Every rating we publish is fingerprinted, tracked, and resolved in public. Here's how we've actually done.

3
calls logged
track record builds as calls resolve (0/8)
Resolved
0
awaiting first results
Open calls
3
tracked, unresolved
SKY track record
building
published once resolved
Section readTrack record
Building
Our public hit-rate, misses included — a track record only means something if it can't be cherry-picked.
Champion Homes, Inc. (SKY) Stock Price & Signals · QTick